Herbert -
Thanks for your very interesting analysis. I can see you study the integration of technical and fundamental aspects of LGND in greater detail than I do. I'm impressed.
I have tended to go with the "efficient market" theory, which in the case of the NDA would mean it is a non-event. The market already knows it is coming, so it should be factored into LGND's price already. In fact, the market is likely to be disappointed if NDA filing does not happen soon. (Maybe, as I suspect but have zero proof of, the NDA will permit some WS firms to begin covering LGND.)
On the other hand, the news items in the last 2 weeks surprised the market so the price gapped up. Perhaps, there is more good news coming beyond the NDA (several posters have outline a number of likely news items over the near term). Also, a decision is due in a few days on the LLY drug versus cash etc. While I gather most think it will be the cash option, we may be surprised by what LGND picks. Lastly, LGND did mention last Fall that they might make an acquisition and I don't think anyone has mentioned that lately. While that's probably dead, maybe we'll be surprised.
In any case, I agree "When she blows, it could be spectacular!" BTW, my boat is full of LGND so I'll happily stand aside as you fill yours.
Regards to all,
wtd |
