Nice! Will be very interesting to see price action on Monday.
In theory this should increase by the total addressable market of the UK, which is about 20% that of the US.
If we go up less than 20% it reflects lower expected price/reimbursement in the UK.
However if it goes up more than 20% it reflects optimism that UK approval implies EMA approval odds have gone up, plus Australia, Canada, Japan and other markets that typically follow the major markets.
While the approval means only available for self-pay, ie not yet covered by the NHS, the UK is a pretty big market for self-pay. Lots of wealthy, older people in the UK and there is an established medical tourism market in the UK for wealthy folks from Europe, Africa, Mideast etc when there is an approval in the UK but not yet locally. If you can afford to fly all the way to the UK for your doctor's appointment, you can likely afford to pay for Anktiva.
The other unknown, but inferable, is what type of cancer does King Charles have, and did he get Anktiva?
Reading the tea leaves it appears his diagnosis has not been made public, but you can review some threads online that says he's on a 3yr course of treatment. Would not be surprised at all to learn that his NMIBC has been effectively cured, and word spread among UK docs that the treatment includes Anktiva...ergo MHRA approves because what's good for the goose is good for the gander.
I anticipate Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries to also approve very soon on the back of this, those countries don't like to see their wealthy royals have to fly to the UK for treatment/ FDA plus UK approval means just a matter of time before approved in a much lower regulatory strict environment.
So now it's all about technical analysis IMO, which is probably how shorts have so much confidence. If you look at the charts, the fact this hasn't been able to eclipse 3.76 and 4.27, and the 200 day moving avg sits at 3.31, it is a confident short until convincingly going above these levels.
If we break above 4.27 and fill the recent gap then the next target is 6.93-7.63, then 10.53. For better or worse while below all these thresholds shorts may not be inclined to cover, but each ceiling breach will lead to more and more momentum.
Fingers crossed we stumbled on the catalyst that triggers not just a short squeeze but a long-term reversal back to the peak in the 40's. |
