| | | Bill, re: Your article - Gemini Q&A >> compare Apple current issues to Nokia's demise
Compare Apple current issues to Nokia's demise-- see this article - iPhone 17 Air Design, Specs, and More: All the Rumors So Far
Wednesday July 9, 2025 3:09 am PDT by Tim Hardwick.
. macrumors.com
Long Q&A with the below narrative brought forward
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Conclusion
While Apple is far from Nokia's level of crisis, your points highlight that the nature of the risks has shifted. It's no longer just about hardware design or specific features, but about:
Maintaining the pace of groundbreaking innovation in new categories beyond its traditional strengths.
Swiftly and effectively integrating new computing paradigms like generative AI into its core user experience, rather than playing catch-up.
1) Apple's Struggles with AI Compared to Android/Qualcomm
This is perhaps the most direct and pressing similarity to Nokia's strategic missteps regarding software and ecosystem.
Android/Qualcomm's Head Start:
Early Adoption of Dedicated AI Hardware: Qualcomm began integrating dedicated AI processing units (Neural Processing Units or NPUs) into its Snapdragon SoCs years ago (e.g., with the Hexagon DSP, then specific AI Engines in Snapdragon 845 onwards). This hardware acceleration allowed Android device makers to introduce on-device AI features much earlier.
Visible AI Features: For two years or more, premium Android smartphones (especially those powered by flagship Qualcomm Snapdragon chips from Samsung, Google Pixel, Xiaomi, etc.) have offered visible, on-device AI features:
Advanced Camera Features: Real-time object recognition, scene optimization, enhanced low-light photography, advanced portrait modes, and video effects using AI.
On-Device Translation: Real-time translation of conversations and text without internet connectivity.
Smart Assistant Capabilities: More contextual understanding for Google Assistant, Bixby, etc.
Generative AI for Photos/Text: Features like Google's Magic Editor (generative fill for photos), Circle to Search, and AI-powered text summarization/generation have been widely marketed.
Developer Ecosystem: Qualcomm has actively pushed its AI software development kit (SDK) to allow developers to leverage the on-device AI capabilities of Snapdragon chips, fostering an ecosystem of AI-powered apps.
Apple's Perceived Lag and Challenges:
Siri's Stagnation: Siri, launched in 2011, was a pioneer but has notoriously lagged behind Google Assistant and now generative AI chatbots (like ChatGPT) in conversational ability, contextual understanding, and integration with third-party apps. Its promised "revamp" has been delayed.
"On-Device First" Philosophy: Apple's strong emphasis on user privacy and on-device processing for AI (to avoid sending sensitive data to the cloud) has, ironically, potentially slowed its progress in generative AI, which often relies on massive cloud-based models. While noble for privacy, it creates a technical hurdle.
Catch-Up Mode: Recent reports confirm Apple is playing catch-up. Its upcoming "Apple Intelligence" features, while expected to be deeply integrated, are arriving later than many competitors. The recent news that Apple is exploring partnerships with OpenAI or Anthropic to power parts of Siri highlights its recognition of this gap and a willingness to leverage external expertise, rather than relying solely on in-house models.
Talent Poaching: Reports of key AI executives leaving Apple for competitors like Meta underscore the intense competition for AI talent and potential internal challenges in Apple's AI division.
Comparison to Nokia (Strong Similarity): This is where the parallel becomes quite stark. Nokia fundamentally underestimated the importance of the software ecosystem and the new computing paradigm represented by smartphones and apps. It clung to Symbian and then made a late, problematic pivot to Windows Phone.
Similarly, Apple, despite its strong hardware and integrated software, appears to have underestimated the rapid acceleration and consumer demand for generative AI. While Apple has used AI extensively under the hood for years (e.g., in camera processing, Face ID, battery optimization), it was slow to bring visible, cutting-edge generative AI features to the user interface in a way that Android phones, powered by Qualcomm and Google, did. This is not just an "iterative improvement" gap; it's a gap in a new, fundamental computing paradigm that could redefine how users interact with their devices, much like the touchscreen did for smartphones.
If Apple cannot quickly close this AI gap, its premium user experience and "it just works" philosophy could be eroded by Android devices that offer genuinely more capable and intuitive AI interactions. This mirrors Nokia's struggle when users started demanding the app-centric experience of iPhones and Androids, which Symbian simply couldn't deliver, despite Nokia's excellent hardware at the time.
2 ) Modem issue >>>>>>>>>>>>>
Apple's In-House Modem Development:
Motivation: Apple's primary drivers for developing its own modem are to reduce reliance on a single, powerful supplier (Qualcomm), gain greater control over its core technology, better integrate the modem with its system-on-a-chip (SoC) for optimized performance and power efficiency, and potentially save costs by cutting out Qualcomm's licensing fees and chip prices. Apple acquired Intel's modem business in 2019 to accelerate this effort.
Current Deficiencies: Recent reports (as of May 2025) indicate that Apple's in-house modem, particularly the rumored "C1" modem in the iPhone 16e, still lags behind Qualcomm's state-of-the-art Snapdragon modems (like the X75 and X80).
Performance Gaps: Qualcomm-funded studies (which naturally come with bias, but highlight potential areas of weakness) suggest Apple's modem can be significantly slower in download and upload speeds, especially in weak signal areas or demanding network environments.
Carrier Aggregation and mmWave: Apple's current modem reportedly lacks advanced features like four-carrier downlink and two-carrier uplink aggregation, which combine multiple frequency bands for higher throughput. It also reportedly lacks full mmWave 5G support (the super-fast, short-range 5G often found in urban areas).
Overheating and Efficiency: Earlier prototypes were rumored to have issues with being too slow and susceptible to overheating, which can impact sustained performance. While some progress may have been made, thermal constraints remain a concern.
Complexity: Building a competitive cellular modem is an incredibly complex task, requiring expertise in radio frequency (RF) design, baseband processing, and extensive testing with global cellular networks. Qualcomm has spent decades perfecting this technology.
Strategic Implications for Apple: If Apple's in-house modem continues to be significantly deficient, it poses several risks:
User Experience: Subpar modem performance directly impacts call quality, data speeds, and network reliability, potentially eroding the premium user experience Apple is known for.
Competitive Disadvantage: In an increasingly connected world, modem performance is a key differentiator. If Android phones consistently offer faster, more reliable connections, it could make iPhones less attractive to power users.
Continued Reliance on Qualcomm: Apple's goal to fully transition away from Qualcomm by 2027-2028 (when its current license agreement is set to expire) could be jeopardized, forcing it to negotiate new terms with Qualcomm from a weaker position. This would impact cost savings and strategic independence.
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