| | | Tenchu's Thoughts - PooTin's Choice: Save the Economy or Continue the War?
Now that the economic warning signs are flashing red ...
The Warning Signs for Russia’s Economy Are Flashing Red (WSJ)
... what will PooTin do?
First of all, let's ground ourselves in some postulates:
1) The economic warning signs are real. They are not part of some RuZZian disinformation campaign to lull the West into a false sense of complacency.
2) PooTin can't ignore these warnings, because regime stability is closely tied to economic stability.
3) PooTin can't save the economy without affecting his perpetual three-day war of choice.
Second, let's revisit RuZZia's overall strategy in Ukraine:
*******
Tenchu's Thoughts - RuZZia's Strategy In Ukraine Going Forward
RuZZia has to keep forward momentum going, even at the current snail's pace, even at a ridiculously high cost in human life. Even if they have to take empty land that has no strategic significance and plant a RuZZian flag on it, they will do that.
Why? Because of propaganda. It's their one remaining weapon that still works.
...
In short, their goals are nothing but political.
*******
RuZZia continues to play their propaganda card. RuZZia still believes that they can attrit Ukraine to the point of political instability. PooTin still thinks that NATO support for Ukraine will collapse, that the Ukrainian people will eventually turn on Zelensky, and that RuZZia can then go in and replace Zelensky with a puppet regime.
(Of course, that's not happening, especially now that Donald Lewinsky is pissed off at PooTin. Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.)
And finally, let's look at what PooTin needs to do in order to survive:
- 50% of the RuZZian population remains depoliticized. They need to remain political zombies. They need to continue entrusting PooTin with the political sausage-making, and that includes his sPeCiAl mIlItArY oPeRaTiOn.
- Like I said, economic stability is closely tied to political stability. RuZZians might tolerate food prices doubling every year, but that's OK as long as their wages continue to increase almost as rapidly. But when that ceases, we may see a collapse of the RuZZian Federation that is reminiscent of the collapse of the Soviet Union.
- On the other hand, RuZZia continues to drift toward North Koreanification. That might be one way PooTin survives politically even after the RuZZian economy turns to shit.
What does this all lead to?
It leads to a crossroads. PooTin can either scale back the war and save the RuZZian economy, or he can put his people through even bigger economic hardships and keep the war going at its current pace.
I think he will do the latter. I think he will finally take the advice of his former Master Chef Prigozhin, who once said that PooTin has to impose martial law and put the country into "North Korea mode":
Tenchu's Thoughts: The North Koreafication of RuZZia, Chapter 2
Of course, such a move might have made more sense two years ago when the Master Chef was saying that.
Now? It might be a little late for that given that RuZZia is out of tanks, their aviation is barely hanging on, and all they can do now is ramp up Shahed drone attacks on "military day care centers" in Kyiv.
But it's clear to me that PooTin will indeed tank the economy before he scales back the war, because he doesn't sense any risk of social unrest. Martial law, mobilization, nationalization of industries, and totalitarianism will be his final flex.
And when that happens, the endgame will begin.
Tenchusatsu |
|
