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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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Harshu Vyas

To: Paul Senior who wrote (77739)	7/12/2025 2:28:36 PM
From: FIFO_kid2	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 78476

From experience the smaller cap biotech/ pharma development stocks are a really a tough nut to crack and not worth it on the long side. I prefer to look at them as a short sale candidate. There are just too many negative detracting variables and in the process blowing money at a faster pace while in the drug discovery stage than any other "growth " industry and in the process diluting your position hoping for a blockbuster drug is a too low probability venture for my taste and a bad risk/reward. My thoughts only: It also certainly appears the FDA is big pharma centric for favoritism with that suspicious delay of a very promising drug. Its hard to lump these stocks as value plays. You need to know the burn rate, in addition to the chance of success for the drug for approval and then do a DCF on market penetration which is very difficult to assess. What is imperative is knowing the itinerary of important dates for the company and if you are fortunately in the black albeit a typically rare event it probably is wise to buy a put option expiring near that date to maintain your cost in the stock.

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