| | | Good Morning Harvey,
In 2024 I added sometrcking stocks - all active in drilling in the Permian Sale deposits.
During the April sell off, I added to those positions and averaged down only slightly.
During the last 3 weeks, I have sold off all of my highest cost shares in all of my "short term holdings. Some were from a transfer from my wife's IRA into our joint taxable account, which upon the transfer, greatly upped my cost basis.
I bit the bullet and transferred everything in her IRA, and wrote a check to the IRS. GRR
This year my IRA hits me with a RMD, and I will take several years for that to be totoally transferred into our taxable account. I actually strted last year.
I was pleasantly surprised with selling off the high cost shares, in combination with the "average down" I managed in Apri/May. Both did drop my cost average.
I'm not sure on oil companies, but they seem to have some deep cyclicality with peak demand and the price of oil - the commodity.
I'm of the opinion that we are getting toppy, and have raised some cash with the selling of my high cost shares.
I usually like to accumulate shares by selling puts out in time. I have done that back in April/May. With time decay and the up move in the market, I've "bot to close" all but three positions (all lowballs that I'd love to buy in any market).
Today Trump has given Putin a lot to chew on. If in 50 days the war in Ukraine is not over or ceased, the US will put a 100% tarrif on any country that does business (buys oil) with Russia. 50 days will become effective September 3rd, 2025.
Putin is a landgrabber and natural resource broker. I suspect he'll be belligerent.
Trump gave him a long time to ponder.
Just enough to get into the shoulder season of energy and its seasonal decline thru Q4 2025 and Q1 of 2026.
Trump wants energy to stay low AND an end of the Ukraine war.
Putin is a communist thug and will prove it time and time again - even if it PO's Trump. IMHO.
With secondary sanctions, the oil going out to the world will be tighter than now , Indonesia, India, Malasia and China may curtail their desire for discounted 100% sanctioned crude.
IF the Permian has peaked, oil will be very tight and more in the $80.00 to $100.00 price range.
Guyana and Brazil are longer play additional sources of long term supply, low cost oil, as well as the Gulf of America.
IT ALWAYS TAKES LONGER = IATL.
In between I see crude going higher.
The IEA always underestimates the demand for fossil fuels from the Emerging Markets. Their estimates that EV's will reduce demand has yet to be proven, and can be said has failed to be correct. EV's are a dying asset without free rebate money incentivizing them, and many of the Democracies of the world are broke with or without a war.
The efficiency of fossil fuels are being embraced as renewable projects go broke or abandoned.
Bob |
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