| | | Market Snapshot
| Dow | 44459.65 | +88.14 | (0.20%) | | Nasdaq | 20640.33 | +54.80 | (0.27%) | | SP 500 | 6268.56 | +8.81 | (0.14%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1428 | Dec 1321 | Vol 1.06 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 2628 | Dec 1881 | Vol 8.05 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Real Estate, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials, Utilities |
| | Weak: Energy, Materials, Health Care, Information Technology |
Moving the Market
President Trump announced a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico
Anticipation of this week's release of June CPI and PPI data
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Resilience despite tariff pressure
14-Jul-25 16:35 ET
Dow +88.14 at 44459.65, Nasdaq +54.80 at 20640.33, S&P +8.81 at 6268.56
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market rebounded from early session lows following some new tariff headlines, driven by a steady, mechanical trade that saw the major averages finish with modest gains and the Nasdaq close at a new record high.
A proposed 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico, starting August 1, was enough to incite a sluggish start, but true to form, the market displayed resilience to tariff headlines that have done little so far to sway the market’s upward momentum.
The head of the EU's Executive Commission and the President of Mexico both expressed a willingness to negotiate a better trade deal before the August 1 deadline. That mindset helped temper today’s selling activity.
Separately, the markets were unfazed by President Trump's announcement of secondary tariffs on Russia of up to 100% starting September 1 if Russia hasn't agreed to a ceasefire or an end to the war with Ukraine.
Though there was strength in the wake of the tariff developments, today's gains were modest. Buyer conviction was lacking ahead of consequential economic data releases and a plethora of earnings reports this week.
Tomorrow will bring the release of June CPI data, with June PPI on Wednesday and June Retail Sales on Thursday.
Several large banks, such as Wells Fargo (WFC 83.43, +0.88, +1.1%), Citigroup (C 87.50, +0.77, +0.9%), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 288.70, +1.84, +0.6%), will release their earnings reports before the open tomorrow. Positioning before earnings contributed to the financials sector (+0.7%) finishing among the top-performing sectors.
The communication services sector (+0.7%) was another leader today, as Netflix (NFLX 1260.81, +15.70, +1.26%) traded higher ahead of its earnings report on Thursday.
Additionally, the sector benefitted from strength in its mega-cap components Alphabet (GOOG 182.76, +1.45, +0.8%) and Meta Platforms (META 720.37, +2.86, +0.5%).
Mega-cap stocks as a cohort slightly outperformed the market. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF posted a gain of 0.3%, while the S&P 500 increased 0.1%. The Russell 2000 (+0.5%) and the S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.2%) outperformed the S&P 500 as well.
Seven S&P 500 sectors finished in positive territory with gains ranging from 0.1% to 0.7%.
The energy sector (-1.2%) was the only sector that saw a change of more than 1%, falling in tandem with the 2.3% decline in oil prices to $66.90 per barrel.
Treasuries traded in a tight range, exhibiting a similar wait-and-see disposition in front of this week's key economic releases.
There was no U.S. economic data of note today.
Major averages trading in tight range
14-Jul-25 15:30 ET
Dow +56.77 at 44428.28, Nasdaq +60.84 at 20646.37, S&P +9.59 at 6269.34
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%) continues to track within a relatively tight range just below its session highs heading into the final half hour of trading.
Modest but broad-based buying activity can be attributed to today's rebound from a shaky start, as relative strength can be found across mega-cap and smaller-cap stocks alike. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+0.4%) outperforms the broader market, as do the Russell 2000 (+0.5%) and the S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.3%).
Treasuries traded in a tight range, staying calm once again despite more tariff letters being sent announcing higher tariff rates starting August 1.
The 10-year note yield finished up one basis point at 4.43%.
Major averages near session highs
14-Jul-25 15:00 ET
Dow +68.10 at 44439.61, Nasdaq +77.20 at 20662.73, S&P +12.57 at 6272.32
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages trade near their best levels of the day, as the S&P 500 is currently up 0.2%.
There has been a steady mechanical upward trend following a slow morning that saw the majority of sectors open in negative territory. Only the energy (-1.0%), materials (-0.4%), and health care (-0.1%) sectors remain in the red, and even these sectors have rebounded from their session lows in a similar trend to the broader market.
The information technology sector (unchanged) has shed some losses in its mega-cap components after being down as much as 0.8% this morning.
The communication services sector (+0.9%) continues to climb as the day's top performer as Alphabet (GOOG 182.70, +1.39, +0.77%) now sports a healthy gain after being down in the early trade.
Netflix (NFLX 1268.10, +22.99, +1.9%) widens its gains ahead of its earnings release on Thursday.
S&P 500 edges higher as FTNT and PLTR rally on AI and security tailwinds; STZ drops on tariff fears
14-Jul-25 14:30 ET
Dow +83.82 at 44455.33, Nasdaq +71.75 at 20657.28, S&P +12.58 at 6272.33
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.20%) is up about 13 points this afternoon, slightly ahead of the DJIA for second place.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents EQT Corp. (EQT 57.95, +2.62, +4.74%), Fortinet (FTNT 102.92, +3.86, +3.90%), and Palantir Technologies (PLTR 147.89, +5.79, +4.07%) dot the top of the standings. FTNT gains after a Barclays note earlier highlighted it as one of the better-positioned names in the security sector ahead of Q2 results, while PLTR rallies in sympathy to news that xAI announced new U.S. government partnerships, including a DoD contract and GSA availability for its "Grok for Government" AI suite.
Meanwhile, Constellation Brands (STZ 164.85, -7.34, -4.26%) is underperforming as investors react to President Trump's threat of 30% tariffs on Mexican imports, which could significantly raise costs for its Mexican-brewed beer brands like Modelo and Corona.
Nasdaq leads as gold slips on dollar strength, yield rise following Trump tariff threats
14-Jul-25 14:00 ET
Dow +52.21 at 44423.72, Nasdaq +64.50 at 20650.03, S&P +8.80 at 6268.55
[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (+0.31%) is in first place on Monday afternoon, up about 64 points.
Gold futures settled $4.90 lower (-0.2%) at $3,359.10/oz, as the market digested a mix of geopolitical risk and monetary pressures. After briefly hitting a three-week high on renewed safe-haven demand, driven by President Trump's threat of new tariffs, including a 30% duty on EU and Mexican imports, gold eased off due to strength in the U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields. Investors are now awaiting forthcoming inflation data, which could offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and in turn shape gold's outlook.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up about +0.3% to $98.13.
Kenvue ticking higher on series of strategic moves; investors await CEO and portfolio clarity
Kenvue (KVUE +1%) is ticking higher following a flurry of announcements this morning. The company, which provides consumer health products across self-care and essential health categories (Tylenol, Band-Aid, Neutrogena, Listerine etc.), announced a CEO transition, a review of strategic actions, and issued Q2 guidance. With activist shareholders taking interest, six consecutive quarters of yr/yr revenue decline, a new CFO appointed in May, and now a new CEO, KVUE appears to be taking steps to turn things around.
- CEO Thibaut Mongon stepped down while the company searches for a permanent replacement. Combined with the appointment of a new CFO in May, these leadership changes suggest growing urgency around reshaping the company's direction after six consecutive quarters of yr/yr revenue declines.
- KVUE also announced that its strategic review committee is evaluating a range of potential actions, including optimizing its brand portfolio and improving execution. We think a key focus could be its skin health and beauty segment, which was its weakest segment in Q1. Organic sales of the segment declined 4.8%.
- There have been recent reports from CNBC and Reuters that the board is listening to activists calling for change. In particular, Reuters reported in early June that KVUE is exploring the sale of some of its skin health and beauty brands. With its Q2 earnings call scheduled for August 7, investors will likely focus on any updates regarding that segment.
- Notably, KVUE issued Q2 guidance this morning, which it doesn't typically provide. The company expects a 4% decline in revenue, which would mark its seventh consecutive quarter of yr/yr contraction. Additionally, it announced it would revise its FY25 outlook, potentially adding some uncertainty for investors.
Overall, KVUE has delivered underwhelming financial performance after being spun off from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) in August 2023. We think there are some cross currents here. Investors are pleased to see a new CEO and the review of its portfolio. However, Q2 top line guidance was a bit light and the comments about FY25 are perhaps making investors a little nervous. It's possible KVUE may wait until it has a new CEO in place before making decisions on its portfolio. As such, there is a bit of a cloud over the stock until investors know who the new CEO will be and what decisions will be made on its portfolio.
Boeing sees a reprieve as FAA affirms safety of 787 fuel switches amid Air India probe (BA)
Boeing (BA) is experiencing a reprieve today after Reuters reported that the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has concluded that the fuel control switch locking mechanisms on Boeing aircraft, including the 787 Dreamliner, are safe as India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) continues its investigation into the June 12, 2025, crash of Air India Flight AI-171. The AAIB’s preliminary report, released on July 11, disclosed that the Boeing 787’s fuel control switches moved from the “RUN” to “CUTOFF” position seconds after takeoff, resulting in a loss of thrust that led to the tragic crash, claiming 241 of 242 passengers and crew, plus 19 lives on the ground.
- The report referenced a 2018 FAA Special Airworthiness Information Bulletin, which recommended, but did not mandate, inspections of the fuel control switch locking mechanisms on several BA models, including the 787, due to potential risks of unintended disengagement. Cockpit voice recorder transcripts revealed one pilot questioning, “Why did you cut off?” with the other responding, “I didn’t,” suggesting the switch movement may have been unintentional or mechanical in nature.
- The AAIB’s recommendation for inspections, while not mandatory, underscores ongoing scrutiny of BA’s safety systems, though the FAA’s affirmation of the switches’ safety mitigates immediate regulatory pressure.
- This development significantly alleviates investor concerns about the potential issuance of an Airworthiness Directive (AD) that could have led to a temporary grounding of the 787 Dreamliner fleet, a scenario reminiscent of the 737 MAX groundings following the fatal crashes of Lion Air Flight 610 in 2018 and Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 in 2019, which cost BA an estimated $21 bln in losses and severely damaged its reputation. The 787 program, with approximately 1,190 aircraft in service globally as of 2Q25, is a cornerstone of BA’s commercial portfolio, generating substantial revenue through its role in long-haul routes for major carriers like United Airlines (UAL), All Nippon Airways, and Qatar Airways.
- The 787 program has recently experienced positive momentum, with production rates stabilizing at five aircraft per month and orders accelerating, notably Qatar Airways’ commitment in June 2025 for up to 210 jets, including 130 787 Dreamliners valued at approximately $35 bln at list prices. The FAA’s confidence in the fuel switch locks reduces the risk of disruptions to this critical program, bolstering investor confidence in BA’s ability to maintain delivery schedules and capitalize on recovering global demand for widebody aircraft.
- Despite this positive development, BA remains under intense scrutiny as the AAIB investigation into Air India Flight AI-171 progresses, with a final report expected by 4Q25. The company continues to grapple with restoring credibility among regulators, airlines, and the public following years of safety and quality control issues. BA’s efforts to regain market share from its primary competitor, Airbus (EADSY), are ongoing, as EADSY has capitalized on BA’s setbacks, securing a 56% share of the commercial aircraft market in 2024 compared to Boeing’s 41%.
The Reutersreport represents a bullish development for BA’s stock as the FAA affirmation of the fuel switch locks’ safety helps ease investor angst over the prospect of costly regulatory actions, providing breathing room for BA to focus on execution. The company is riding a wave of momentum fueled by rising global demand for fuel-efficient aircraft, although the ongoing Air India investigation underscores the fragility of BA’s recovery.
Ramaco Resources to crash the rare earth party; bullish feasibility report/interview (METC)
Ramaco Resources (METC +12%) is making a strong move following a bullish interview on CNBC for its CEO Randall Atkins. Today's move extends the momentum we have seen in its share price over the past month or so. Investors are getting excited about Ramaco because it's transitioning from being a supplier of met coal (used to make steel) to becoming a producer of rare earth elements (REE) and critical minerals, specifically at its Brook Mine in Wyoming.
- The problem is that China produces about 70% of the world's rare earths and processes 90% of the global supply, including much of the output from other countries. Where China excels is in the chemical processing stage, which is critical for turning mined ore into usable materials.
- A rare earth minerals shortage is currently unfolding, triggered primarily by China's suspension of nearly all exports of several key rare earth metals, which has led to supply disruptions in the US and Europe. Lots of industries rely on these materials, including automotive, electronics, renewable energy, and defense. China is retaliating in response to US tariffs and broader trade disputes. As such, there is a big push to increase domestic production in the US.
- In 2023, Ramaco Resources announced that a major deposit of primary magnetic rare earths and critical minerals was discovered at its Brook Mine. The company is not commercially producing REE, but has been making steady progress and wants to become a major critical mineral producer. Ramaco describes Brook Mine‘s rare earth deposit being exceptional in both size and quality. Last week, Ramaco released a report from Fluor which confirms it is both commercially and technologically feasible.
- Importantly, Ramaco has said that it will never need to ship its ores to China or any other country for processing, They will be 100% mined and refined in the US. Ramaco is moving as fast as it can to make this mine a commercial reality. The mine has the potential to supply precisely the rare earths and critical minerals which are in short supply. Also, Ramaco recently hired Mike Woloschuk as EVP to oversee this project. He has expertise in developing REE businesses in all parts of the world.
- Atkins was quite bullish in the CNBC interview late Friday. He said Ramaco is in the process of building a pilot plant for processing, which will probably take a year. He said the US govt has encouraged METC to consider taking this all the way to magnets and it's even conceivable it can go from mine to semiconductor wafers. METC has been involved with the govt since Day 1 and disclosed it has had some back channel discussions with Defense Dept.
Ramaco announced the rare earths find in 2023, but investors are finally starting to notice. There is renewed focus on REE as a result of China halting shipments in response to the Trump tariffs. We also think the positive Fluor report and Friday's bullish interview are sparking interest in METC. The talk about back channel discussion with DoD was pretty intriguing. Also, Atkins summed it up well, saying this is a nascent industry. Only one other company is involved in rare earths that began 70 years ago, and METC is the next one, and it's just getting started.
Meta acquires Play AI to supercharge voice-driven interactions across apps and wearables (META)
In late June, Bloomberg first reported that Meta Platforms (META) was in advanced discussions to acquire Play AI, a startup specializing in AI-driven voice replication technology, a deal now confirmed by multiple sources, including an internal META memo. The financial terms of the acquisition remain undisclosed but given that Play AI raised approximately $23.5 mln in total capital, primarily through a $21 mln seed round in November 2024 led by investors such as Kindred Ventures and Y Combinator, the acquisition price is likely to be relatively modest in the context of META’s $1.8 trillion market capitalization.
- Play AI’s technology, which leverages large language models trained on hundreds of millions of real-world conversations, enables the creation of natural, human-like voices with nuanced control over prosody, intonation, emotion, and pacing, making it ideal for applications in customer support, content creation, and interactive voice interfaces. This technology is a natural fit for META’s ecosystem, particularly in enhancing Meta AI, its AI assistant, by enabling more realistic and multilingual voice interactions across platforms like Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.
- Play AI’s voice cloning and no-code conversational agents could also be integrated into META’s wearable products, such as its Ray-Ban smart glasses, to provide seamless voice-driven user experiences, potentially improving accessibility and engagement. Furthermore, Play AI’s capabilities could enhance META’s AI-driven advertising tools by enabling personalized, voice-based ad content, which could increase user engagement and ad effectiveness.
- Financially, the acquisition is unlikely to materially impact META’s near-term revenue, given Play AI’s early-stage status and META’s projected 2Q25 revenue guidance of $42.5-$45.5 bln. However, over the long term, as Play AI’s technology is embedded into META’s platforms and products, it could drive incremental revenue growth by enhancing user retention, expanding advertising capabilities, and strengthening META’s position in the growing market for voice-enabled AI applications.
- META’s acquisition of Play AI is part of a broader surge in AI-related investments, underscored by the company’s increased 2025 capital expenditure guidance of $64-$72 bln, up significantly from $39.2 bln in 2024, as announced during its 1Q25 earnings report. This escalation reflects META’s strategic focus on building advanced AI systems, including its pursuit of “superintelligence,” as articulated by CEO Mark Zuckerberg.
- The Play AI deal follows META’s $14.3 bln acquisition of Scale AI, a company specializing in high-quality data labeling, human-in-the-loop feedback, and reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), which are critical for training and refining large language models. Scale AI’s expertise complements Play AI’s voice technology by providing the data infrastructure needed to enhance model performance, suggesting a synergistic approach to META’s AI strategy.
- Additionally, META’s aggressive talent acquisition, including high-profile hires like former Apple (AAPL) AI executive Ruoming Pang and OpenAI researchers with compensation packages reportedly exceeding $100 mln, underscores its commitment to securing top AI talent to support these initiatives.
META’s acquisition of Play AI strategically enhances its voice AI capabilities, positioning the company to deliver more immersive and personalized user experiences across its platforms and wearables. By integrating Play AI’s technology and talent, META strengthens its competitive position in the AI race, aligning with its broader vision of achieving superintelligence and maintaining technological leadership.
PriceSmart's solid Q3 earnings and potential Chile expansion fuel stock to new peaks (PSMT)
PriceSmart (PSMT), a U.S.-style membership warehouse club operator with stores primarily in Central America, the Caribbean, and Colombia., delivered a solid 3Q25 earnings report, narrowly surpassing EPS expectations while revenue of $1.32 bln aligned with forecasts. The company reported robust comparable net merchandise sales growth of 7.0%, or 8.5% in constant currency, reflecting strong performance across its 55 clubs. Adding to the positive sentiment, PSMT announced it is evaluating Chile as a potential new market, hiring local consultants and scouting sites, which has fueled a surge in its stock price to multi-year highs as investors anticipate further growth in its emerging markets footprint.
- The potential entry into Chile is a significant catalyst for PSMT, as it represents an opportunity to expand its proven warehouse club model into a new South American market with favorable demographics and economic stability. Chile’s GDP per capita, higher than PSMT’s existing South American markets like Colombia and Ecuador, suggests strong potential for membership uptake among middle- and upper-income consumers.
- Based on the company’s measured expansion strategy -- averaging 1-2 new clubs annually in markets like Colombia (population ~52 mln, 10 clubs) and Ecuador (population ~18 mln, 3 clubs) -- Chile’s population of ~20 mln could conservatively support 3-5 clubs over the next decade, assuming suitable site availability and regulatory approvals. Chile’s developed retail infrastructure, urban concentration in cities like Santiago, and consumer preference for value-driven formats align well with PSMT’s low-price, high-quality model, making it a compelling fit, though challenges like site acquisition and permit uncertainties remain.
- Turning to the Q3 performance, PSMT’s comparable net merchandise sales growth was driven by strong demand across key product categories, particularly food and consumables, which benefit from the company’s focus on sourcing 50% of products locally or regionally. The company’s omni-channel strategy also played a pivotal role, with digital sales rising to 6.1% of total net merchandise sales. Membership growth further bolstered results, with total accounts reaching 1.97 mln (up 4.1% yr/yr) and a high 88.0% renewal rate, particularly driven by uptake in the premium Platinum tier.
- Profitability also showed notable improvement, with adjusted EBITDA climbing to $79.0 mln from $71.0 mln in the prior-year quarter, an 11.3% increase. Key drivers included higher membership income, which surged 13.4% to $21.9 mln, reflecting strong member retention and premium tier growth, alongside operational efficiencies from increased sales volumes. Furthermore, investments in technology and digital channels, while increasing expenses, are yielding higher-margin digital sales, positioning the company for sustained profitability gains as it scales.
PSMT’s stock rally to multi-year highs is partly driven by optimism surrounding its potential Chile expansion, which promises to extend its successful emerging markets strategy. The company’s strong Q3 FY25 results, underpinned by robust comparable sales and improving profitability, further reinforce the growth trajectory.
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