<< growth/momentum : You can bet these guys are not going to darken Ciena's doorstep anytime in the near future. No doubt their money was a major driving force in the past, and their money will be missed. They're all heading to the exits, if they have not already done so. >>
Good! Let's get rid of the momentum players and leave CIEN to the value players and long-term holders.
<< Value: Despite the recent drop, Ciena is still far from cheap >>
Nothing else is either. Do you think DELL, MSFT, C$CO, AOL, LU or most other techs are cheap? Nadda. This isn't a cheap market.
<< With flat to declining earnings growth in the near future, the P/E may actually expand if earnings falter. >>
Sequential declines are one thing. I don't think CIEN mentioned anything about year over year declines. CIEN still said they have a good chance of making $600 million which would be a 62% increase in sales. They were less cautious about the earnings picture though but that was 20 points ago.
<< There is no way conservative value investors are getting near this stock. >>
What is your definition of a conservative value investor? Sounds like conservative value investors can't invest in LU, DELL, KO, GE, G, PG, LLY, PFE, MRK, TLAB, CSCO, INTC, CPQ, and most of the other stocks in the S&P 500. None of those are "cheap" either.
<< Fundamentalists: This is the only group I can see that might be active buyers for now. Many on this thread have given good fundamental reasons why Ciena is attractive now. >>
There are many methods you can use to invest in the stock market. God forbid you should choose to buy a company because of the fundamentals. Probably better for you to try the method which is working right now which is to buy any stock that announces a stock split. You can buy the leaders in a group, the cheaper laggards, you can buy big cap, small cap, turn-arounds, stocks making new highs, etc.
I choose to trade all different kinds. And then there are some that I don't trade. CIEN is one that I used to trade but now it goes in the "tuck away" column. Of course I will dust off those certficates and offer them for sale if I seem something I don't like but so far I am content to hang on to them. My contention is that CIEN will be another DELL, CPQ, MSFT, INTC, CSCO, or whatever. You didn't have to have perfect timing with those stocks, you just had to know that they were leaders in industries that would shape the computer and communications revolution. That's the kind of industry that CIEN is in. People should buy WDM companies the way they should have bought networkers 10 years ago or computer stocks 10 years ago.
<< The stock has not been below 40 since June 1997. This means that every single investor who purchased and holds stock since June 1997 is in the red. Many will be only too glad to dump the stock on any rally attempt. >>
That's fine with me. If they were too stupid to sell it at 63 and they only now want to sell it at 43 on a bounce we might as well get rid of them.
<< Insiders/original investors. Many of these guys purchased the stock for less than 1-2 dollars a share, and have seen millions evaporate in the past week. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few more chips taken off the table >>
Let's get rid of them too. I only want shares in the hands of people who aren't going to dump the stock first chance they get.
<< 3) Momentum investors: Out the door, if they have not already left >>
You already mentioned this one, but I'll give you another angle. I bet holders of DELL computer who sold in 1990-1991 after their troubles are a little ticked after missing out on 20,000% gains. Others sold DELL at a split adjusted 2 in 1994 when DELL faltered. I bet people who gave up on INTC in 1986 when they laid of 30% of the workforce and lost money are not too happy right now. I bet people who bought C$CO back in 1990 and rode it up until 1994 are mad if they sold when it dropped 50% in 1994. They missed stock splits in 95, 96, 97, and 98. Go talk to someone who sold CPQ in 1991 when their sales and earnings went south. They missed out on a few stock splits and 1600% gains.
<< FWIW, I dumped the stock yesterday at 41 at a loss >>
Smart, you can buy it in the 30's now.
<< but I think there will be plenty of time over the next several months to cherry pick it at a better price. >>
If the price is going to get cheaper then I suppose CIEN is going to be the largest holding in my portfolio because I'm going to keep buying it even if I have to parcel out my other stocks to do it. |
