Estimated YoY FCF Growth:

• Exelixis's annual free cash flow for 2024 was $0.634 billion, a 272.04% increase from 2023.
  
  
• While a specific year-over-year FCF growth estimate for 2025 and 2026 isn't readily available, the company's annual earnings are forecast to grow by 20.5% per year, and revenue by 10.8% per annum. These figures suggest continued positive FCF growth, though likely not at the same high rate as the 2023-2024 surge.
  
  

New Drugs to Enter the Pipeline (Key Developments in 2025 & 2026):

Exelixis is actively expanding its pipeline with a focus on oncology. Key developments include:

• Cabozantinib (CABOMETYX®):
  
  
  • Potential commercial launch in neuroendocrine tumors (NET) following FDA review of its supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA). The PDUFA target action date was April 3, 2025.
    
    
  • Exelixis aims to establish CABOMETYX as a small molecule market leader in NET.
    
    
• Zanzalintinib:
  
  
  • Considered a future growth engine with the potential to surpass Cabometyx's scope and scale in the coming years, becoming a main revenue driver from 2030 onwards.
    
    
  • Six ongoing or planned pivotal studies across Colorectal Cancer (CRC), Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC), Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC), and NET.
    
    
  • Multiple clinical data readouts and additional pivotal study initiations are anticipated throughout 2025.
    
    
  • STELLAR-311, a Phase 3 pivotal trial evaluating zanzalintinib against everolimus in advanced NET, is planned for initiation in the first half of 2025.
    
    
  • Two pivotal RCC studies are planned for 2025 in collaboration with Merck.
    
    
  • Initial clinical data readouts from zanzalintinib's Phase 1b/2 STELLAR-001 and STELLAR-002 clinical studies (including CRC and RCC cohorts) were anticipated in the first half of 2025.
    
    
  • Decision on advancing to Phase 3 of STELLAR-305 (zanzalintinib + pembrolizumab in HNSCC) is expected in the second half of 2025.
    
    
  • Exelixis projects that with successive commercial indications, U.S. net product revenues for zanzalintinib could reach $5 billion by 2033.
    
    
• Earlier-Stage Pipeline: Exelixis is focusing on rapidly profiling compounds and advancing those with the highest chance of clinical and commercial success.
  
  
  • XL309: A Phase 1 program is advancing for XL309, a small molecule inhibitor of USP1, for potential treatment of tumors refractory to PARP inhibitors (PARPi), including ovarian, breast, and prostate cancers.
    
    
  • XB010, XL495, XB371 (antibody-drug conjugate), and ADU-1805 (through an option agreement with Sairopa B.V.) are also in various stages of clinical development, with preclinical data and plans for further advancement and potential Investigational New Drug (IND) filings in 2025.
    
    

Estimated Revenues for 2025 & 2026:

• 2025 Estimated Total Revenue:
  
  
  • Exelixis has increased its fiscal 2025 sales guidance from $2.15 billion-$2.25 billion to $2.25 billion-$2.35 billion.
    
    
  • Analysts' consensus estimates for 2025 range from $2.27 billion to $2.59 billion, with an average of approximately $2.3 billion to $2.34 billion.
    
    
• 2026 Estimated Total Revenue:
  
  
  • Analysts' consensus estimates for 2026 range from $2.49 billion to $3.06 billion, with an average of approximately $2.65 billion to $2.7 billion.
    
    

It's important to note that these are estimates and actual results may vary based on clinical trial outcomes, regulatory approvals, market competition, and other factors.

• 2025 Estimated PE: Based on consensus earnings estimates, Exelixis's estimated PE for 2025 is around 18.04 - 19.80x.
  
  
• 2026 Estimated PE: For 2026, the estimated PE is projected to be around 16.28x.
  
  

• 2025/2026 Estimated PEG: Exelixis's trailing twelve-month (TTM) GAAP PEG ratio is currently 0.09x. While specific forward-looking PEG estimates for 2025 and 2026 are less commonly reported as direct figures, the PEG ratio is derived from the PE ratio divided by the earnings growth rate.
  
  
  • Exelixis's annual earnings are forecast to grow by 20.5% per year.
    
    
  • Given the estimated PE ratios above and a healthy growth rate, Exelixis's PEG ratio is likely to remain attractive (below 1.0, generally indicating undervaluation relative to growth). For instance, using the 2025 estimated PE of ~18.04 and a 20.5% growth rate, the PEG would be approximately 18.04/20.5=0.88x. This suggests a favorable valuation for a growth stock.
    
    

• Current Market Cap (as of July 23, 2025): Exelixis's market capitalization is currently around $12.08 billion to $12.23 billion.
  
  
• 2025/2026 Projections: Analyst price targets provide an indirect way to estimate future market cap. With a current share price around $44.30 - $44.85, and analyst median price targets for the next 12 months (extending into mid-2026) around $45.00 - $45.95, this suggests a relatively stable to slightly increasing market cap. Given current shares outstanding (around 272.71 million), a rough projection for market cap would be:
  
  
  • Based on median target of $45.00: $45.00 * 272.71 million = $12.27 billion
    
    
  • Based on median target of $45.95: $45.95 * 272.71 million = $12.54 billion
    
    
  • These projections suggest a market cap in the range of $12.3 billion to $12.5 billion for 2025/2026, assuming share count remains relatively stable.
    
    

• As of January 2025, the Biotechnology industry average PE ratio was around 25.30x.
  
  
• Exelixis's estimated 2025 PE of 18.04x - 19.80x is below the industry average, suggesting it might be considered undervalued compared to its peers based solely on this metric.
  
  

• As of April 2025, the Biotechnology industry average PEG TTM was around 11.39x.
  
  
• Exelixis's estimated forward PEG of approximately 0.88x (calculated above) is significantly lower than the industry average. This is a strong indicator of favorable valuation relative to its growth prospects within the biotechnology sector. A PEG below 1.0 is often considered a sign of a stock being undervalued relative to its growth.