Market Snapshot
| Dow | 44622.33 | -215.23 | (-0.48%) | | Nasdaq | 21124.13 | -53.08 | (-0.25%) | | SP 500 | 6372.91 | -16.86 | (-0.26%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1356 | Dec 1328 | Vol 463.03 mln | | Nasdaq | Adv 1446 | Dec 2790 | Vol 8.61 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Utilities, Real Estate, Consumer Staples, Energy |
| | Weak: Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, Industrials, Communication Services, Financials, Information Technology |
Moving the Market
Sizable batch of earnings reports before the open, with several mega-cap names set to report later in the week
Major averages slip from early record highs into negative territory amid relatively broad-based selling activity
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Stocks trend lower while treasuries rise
29-Jul-25 15:30 ET
Dow -215.23 at 44622.33, Nasdaq -53.08 at 21124.13, S&P -16.86 at 6372.91
[BRIEFING.COM] Though the S&P 500 (-0.3%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) reached new record intraday highs early in today's session, there will need to be a substantial late-day push for the indices to have any chance of eclipsing yesterday's closing highs.
Stocks have spent the majority of today's trade in a retreat from session highs this morning, with only the real estate (+1.6%), utilities (+0.8%), energy (+0.7%), and consumer staples (+0.5%) sectors able to maintain positions in positive territory.
The real estate and utilities sectors have benefitted from a drop in treasury yields today, with yields on 10s and 30s on track for their lowest settlement since early July, thanks in part to a push to fresh highs after the U.S. Treasury sold $44 billion in 7-year notes to strong demand.
The 2-year note yield is down five basis points to 3.88%, and the 10-year note yield is down nine basis points to 4.33%.
Oil prices rise amid possible Russia sanctions
29-Jul-25 15:00 ET
Dow -234.01 at 44603.55, Nasdaq -45.62 at 21131.59, S&P -16.51 at 6373.26
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have spent the afternoon in a sideways drift after a late morning sell-off reversed earlier gains.
The uneventful session comes as the market awaits further trade developments and tomorrow's FOMC meeting and earnings reports.
Though a Chinese official told the press that a 90-day tariff truce extension was agreed upon, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a press conference that nothing is official until President Trump signs off, though the President is set to be briefed on the matter tomorrow.
Crude oil futures settled today's session $2.47 higher (+3.7%) at $69.22 per barrel, with the increase following comments from President Trump on Air Force One that Russia will face secondary sanctions if it does not stop the Ukraine war by the deadline, which is 10 days from now.
As a result, the energy sector (+0.7%) is among today's top-performing S&P 500 sectors.
S&P 500 dips as VRSN, BRO, SWK slide on news; INCY soars on raised outlook
29-Jul-25 14:30 ET
Dow -229.54 at 44608.02, Nasdaq -50.22 at 21126.99, S&P -17.05 at 6372.72
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.27%) is in second place on Tuesday afternoon, trading just off session lows.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents VeriSign (VRSN 274.96, -31.02, -10.14%), Brown & Brown (BRO 93.18, -9.40, -9.16%), and Stanley Black & Decker (SWK 68.40, -5.53, -7.48%) pepper the bottom of the standings. VRSN falls after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B 478.98, -2.72, -0.56%) sold one-third of its stake via a discounted $285 secondary offering, raising concerns about insider confidence and increasing share supply, while BRO and SWK slip following earnings.
Meanwhile, Incyte (INCY 77.62, +7.46, +10.63%) is one of today's top performers after the company beat Q2 estimates, raised its 2025 revenue outlook on strong product demand and lower royalties, and highlighted new drug approvals and pipeline progress under its new CEO.
Gold rises as yields fall and Fed caution builds
29-Jul-25 14:00 ET
Dow -242.59 at 44594.97, Nasdaq -55.94 at 21121.27, S&P -18.71 at 6371.06
[BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours to go on Tuesday the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.26%) is down about 55 points.
Gold futures settled $14 higher (+0.4%) at $3,324.00/oz, recovering from recent lows as a weaker U.S. dollar and falling Treasury yields boosted safe-haven demand. The move followed fading enthusiasm over a U.S./EU trade deal and growing investor caution ahead of this week's Fed policy meeting.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is now up about +0.3% to $98.93.
Dow slips as UnitedHealth, Merck, Boeing weigh; Travelers bucks trend
29-Jul-25 13:30 ET
Dow -124.37 at 44713.19, Nasdaq -21.06 at 21156.15, S&P -7.28 at 6382.49
[BRIEFING.COM] The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.28%) is in last place on Tuesday afternoon, down about 125 points.
A look inside the DJIA shows that UnitedHealth (UNH 268.54, -13.58, -4.81%), Merck (MRK 81.32, -2.74, -3.26%), and Boeing (BA 228.62, -7.79, -3.30%) are underperforming.
Meanwhile, Travelers (TRV 259.27, +4.36, +1.71%) holds a narrow lead.
The DJIA is now +2.18% higher off the mid-July lows.
Whirlpool in a spin after Q2 report; likely dividend cut and another guidance cut weighing on shares
Whirlpool (WHR -12%) is under pressure today after reporting its Q2 results last night. Simply put, the appliance market remains in a tough operating environment, with elevated interest rates and evolving trade policies continuing to weigh on consumer sentiment. As such, Q2 was expected to be a challenging quarter, and it was as WHR reported its first and largest EPS miss in 10 quarters.
Compounding the disappointing results, WHR announced a likely dividend cut, issued a substantial downward revision to its FY25 EPS guidance, and pointed to persistent near-term headwinds.
- For the overall appliance market, WHR noted that consumer sentiment not only suppressed demand, but consumers are also opting for lower end appliances. Furthermore, Asian competitors continue to ramp up imports ahead of tariffs.
- We think a big thing weighing on the stock is not just the Q2 results but WHR expecting weakness to persist well into Q3. Investors had been hoping for a recovery in 2H25, however these comments certainly put that in doubt.
- WHR also provided some insight into its outlook on the U.S. housing market, a key driver of appliance demand. While the industry is experiencing multi-decade lows in existing home sales, WHR continues to see strong underlying fundamentals that point to a likely multi-year recovery. Management feels there is no company better positioned to benefit from an eventual recovery, which is also the case for when the full effects of tariffs kick in.
- Despite WHR's struggles, one of the best things about the stock has been its substantial dividend with a yield above 7%. We think WHR's decision to cut the dividend is taking investors by surprise because they defended the dividend as recently as the Q1 call in April. That clearly seems to be weighing on the stock today, however it still sports a respectable 4.1% yield.
- WHR sharply lowered its FY25 EPS guidance to $6-8 from $10. This marks the second consecutive quarter WHR has issued downside guidance, and this time it was a significant reduction.
We think investors were expecting a challenging Q2 heading into this report. However, we think they were not expecting a huge dividend cut and another substantial guidance cut, given that WHR cut guidance just last quarter. Management was bullish on the dividend as recently as April, so this caught investors by surprise.
The dividend yield was getting pretty frothy above 7%, so it makes sense to cut it as WHR looks to free up cash. Even after the proposed reduction, the new yield still stands around 4% which is still quite robust. Today's selloff may attract value investors to the name who might be willing to wait for a turnaround in the housing market. And still collect a healthy 4% yield while they wait.
Union Pacific/Norfolk Southern merger has transformational potential, but faces major risks (UNP)
On July 17, 2025, The Wall Street Journal reported that advanced merger discussions between Union Pacific (UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) were unfolding, sparking a sharp rally in NSC as investors anticipated a transformative rail industry consolidation. However, as details of the $85 bln cash-and-stock deal emerged, both stocks have retreated, with NSC giving back some gains and UNP declining nearly 4% amid concerns over dilution and regulatory risks. The market’s initial enthusiasm has been tempered by the complexities of the transaction and broader uncertainties surrounding its approval.
- Under the terms of the agreement, NSC shareholders will receive 1.0 UNP common share and $88.82 in cash for each NSC share, valuing NSC at $320 per share and implying an enterprise value of $85 bln, a 18.6% premium to its July 17 closing price. This structure, combining cash and stock, positions the deal as the largest-ever buyout in the U.S. rail sector, with the combined entity expected to have a market capitalization of approximately $200 bln and an enterprise value of $250 bln. The deal aims to unite UNP’s 32,100-mile western U.S. network with NSC’s 19,500-mile eastern network, creating a transcontinental rail giant.
- UNP and NSC argue that the combined network will enhance service reliability by eliminating interchange bottlenecks, particularly at hubs like Chicago, potentially reducing transit times by 20–30% and improving freight-car velocity by 10%. This seamless single-line network is expected to benefit shippers in sectors like e-commerce, automotive, and agriculture by offering faster, more reliable freight transport across North America.
- Despite the strategic appeal, the market’s reaction has been lukewarm at best. For UNP, the issuance of approximately 225 mln new shares to NSC shareholders introduces significant dilution, potentially pressuring EPS in the near term. Additionally, regulatory uncertainty looms large, with Reuters reporting that the SMART-TD union, North America’s largest rail union, intends to oppose the merger, citing risks to jobs, service reliability, and pricing power, further dampening investor sentiment for both stocks.
- The Surface Transportation Board’s (STB) approval of the $31 bln Canadian Pacific (CP) and Kansas City Southern (KCS) merger in 2023 provides a precedent, as that deal created the first single-line rail network connecting Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, a transaction with comparable strategic significance. Despite intense scrutiny over competition, job losses, and service disruptions, the CP-KCS merger was approved with conditions, including a seven-year oversight period and concessions like rate caps and reciprocal switching. This precedent offers UNP and NSC leverage to argue that their merger can similarly enhance efficiency and public interest, though the larger scale of this deal will likely face heightened regulatory scrutiny.
- Financially, UNP projects the merger to be accretive to EPS in the second full year post-closing, with high-single-digit accretion thereafter, driven by $2.75 bln in annualized synergies, including $1 bln in cost savings and $1.75 bln in incremental revenue from capturing trucking and other rail business. The combined company is expected to generate approximately $36 bln in revenue and $18 bln in EBITDA, leveraging UNP’s operational strength and NSC’s cost optimization potential.
The UNP-NSC merger promises transformative operational efficiencies and significant financial upside, creating a transcontinental rail network poised to redefine U.S. freight logistics. However, the deal’s high-risk, high-reward profile is clouded by near-term dilution concerns and intense regulatory scrutiny, with opposition from unions and potential shipper concerns likely to complicate the path to approval.
PayPal's 's Q2 beat-and-raise marred by branded business slowdown concerns (PYPL)
PayPal (PYPL) delivered a solid 2Q25 earnings report, surpassing EPS and revenue expectation, with revenue growth accelerating to 5.1% from 1.2% in 1Q25. The company also raised its FY25 EPS guidance to $5.15-$5.30, up from $4.95-$5.10, signaling confidence in stronger profitability in 2H25. Despite this beat-and-raise performance, the stock is down sharply today.
- The selloff appears largely driven by disappointment in the growth trajectory of PYPL’s branded business, encompassing its core online checkout button and digital wallet offerings, which is viewed as a critical growth engine. In Q2, the branded business recorded total payment volume (TPV) growth of 5%, a slight deceleration from 6% in the prior quarter, falling short of investor expectations for accelerating momentum. This modest slowdown has raised concerns about PYPL’s ability to sustain robust growth in its flagship segment amid intensifying competition from players like Apple (AAPL) Pay and others.
- A notable headwind in the quarter was a 5% yr/yr decline in payment transactions, continuing a downward trend following a 7% drop in 1Q25. This weakness primarily stems from unbranded payment service provider (PSP) transactions, particularly through Braintree, as PYPL deliberately shifts focus away from lower-margin volume to prioritize higher-margin opportunities. While this strategic pivot aligns with long-term profitability goals, the persistent decline in transaction volume has sparked investor concerns about overall platform engagement.
- On a brighter note, transaction margin dollars, a key profitability metric, rose 7% yr/yr to $3.84 bln, propelled by PYPL’s emphasis on higher-margin branded transactions, contributions from credit products, Venmo, and value-added services. Excluding interest on customer balances, transaction margin dollars grew an even stronger 8%, underscoring the company’s ability to enhance profitability despite softer transaction volumes. PYPL also raised its FY25 transaction margin dollar guidance to $15.35-$15.50 bln from $15.2-$15.4 bln, reflecting confidence in sustained margin expansion.
- Venmo continues to be a standout performer, posting revenue growth exceeding 20% for the second consecutive quarter, driven by expanded merchant adoption and new initiatives like co-branded debit cards. Venmo’s total payment volume growth accelerated to its highest rate in three years, with debit card monthly active users surging over 40%, bolstered by integrations with major merchants like DoorDash (DASH), Starbucks (SBUX), and Ticketmaster.
PYPL’s Q2 results were solid, with strong EPS and revenue beats, upwardly revised guidance, and robust growth in transaction margin dollars and Venmo. However, the modest deceleration in branded business TPV growth has overshadowed these positives, fueling investor concerns about the company’s ability to accelerate its core growth engine in a competitive landscape.
Procter & Gamble roughly flat as it wraps up FY25; consumers remain cautious (PG)
Proctor & Gamble (PG) is a bit Downy today despite wrapping up FY25 with a solid EPS beat and in-line revs. The consumer goods giant that owns brands such as Pampers, Crest, Downy, and Gillette, also provided in-line guidance for FY26 with core EPS growth of +0-4% and sales growth of +1-5% (organic sales growth of +0-4%). But maybe the bigger news was P&G naming a new CEO.
- Shailesh Jejurikar, currently COO, will succeed Jon Moeller as Procter & Gamble's President and CEO, effective January 1, 2026. Moeller will become Executive Chairman at that time. Jejurikar is a long time insider, having been with the company since 1989. He has held various senior leadership roles and helped build several of P&G's core businesses including global Fabric Care and Home Care and in regions including North America, Europe, Asia and Latin America.
- P&G's share price has been trending lower in recent months given what the company describes as a very dynamic, difficult and volatile environment. P&G is seeing heightened consumer anxiety with tariffs, inflation and interest rates, political and social divisiveness, and immigration and employment status uncertainty. And as it enters FY26, P&G expects the environment to remain volatile and challenging. Issues include rising costs, F/X, consumer anxiety, competitors, retailers and geopolitical dynamics.
- In Q4 (Jun), P&G reported net sales growth of +2% (organic +2%) to $20.89 bln. Its best category was Health Care at +2% organic sales growth, which includes oral care, personal health care, and OTC meds. Brands include Crest, Oral-B, Metamucil. Oral Care organic sales increased low single digits driven by product mix from premium innovation. All of its other segments (Beauty, Grooming, Fabric & Home Care, Baby, Feminine) were up +1% organically.
- Management explained in a WSJ article that American shoppers are slowing down and that consumers are using up their pantry inventory, delaying purchases and shopping at stores less frequently. P&G explained that lower-income consumers are looking for price promotions and smaller pack sizes, while higher-income are also looking for deals. Also, tariffs could add $1 bln to its annual costs.
Overall, we think investors were bracing for another slow quarter from this consumer products giant and they got that with its Q4 result. The commentary about a weak consumer, especially regarding lower income people, was expected. We have heard from many other retailers, from Target to Dollar Tree. What was most discouraging was P&G saying it expects more of the same in FY26. The new CEO brings a wealth of experience within P&G. Hopefully, he can make the right changes and guide P&G well during its ongoing portfolio and productivity plan. Some may argue an outsider with a fresh perspective might have been a better choice, but that's not how P&G operates. It usually promotes from within.
Revvity plummets as lower FY25 EPS outlook and margin compression weigh (RVTY)
Revvity's (RVTY) stock is plunging lower following the release of its 2Q25 earnings report, with the weakness directly tied to the company's downward revision of its FY25 EPS guidance to $4.85-$4.95, down from the previous $4.90-$5.00 range. While the company did slightly nudge its FY25 revenue guidance higher to $2.84-$2.88 bln, reflecting modest optimism, this adjustment is providing little consolation to investors who are more focused on the profitability outlook.
- Adjusted operating profit margin contracted to 26.6% in Q2 from 28.8% in the year-earlier period, a decline that signals mounting pressure on profitability. Key factors driving this margin compression include unfavorable product mix, ongoing investments, and heightened cost pressures, particularly from tariffs and supply chain dynamics, which have impacted both the Life Sciences and Diagnostics segments. These margin pressures likely played a pivotal role in RVTY's decision to lower its FY25 EPS guidance, as the company grapples with balancing growth initiatives against rising operational costs.
- In the Life Sciences segment, revenue saw a solid 4% increase on an organic basis, driven by robust demand for reagents and double-digit growth in the Signals Software business, fueled by new orders and strong SaaS performance. While pharmaceutical and biotech sales contributed modestly, the segment faced a low-single-digit decline in instrumentation revenue due to soft academic and government demand, though this was offset by the software strength.
- The Diagnostics segment recorded a 2% organic revenue increase, propelled by low-single-digit growth in immunodiagnostics globally, bolstered by strength in the Americas and recent menu expansions. The reproductive health business also contributed with high-single-digit growth in newborn screening, while a key milestone—the FDA approval of an automated platform for the T-SPOT latent tuberculosis test—positions the segment for further upside in a significant market. However, double-digit declines in China due to policy changes tempered overall gains, reflecting geographic disparities.
- RVTY's transformation plan, a strategic overhaul aimed at enhancing operational efficiency, driving innovation, and fostering partnerships, has been a critical enabler of its ability to exceed revenue expectations. Key aspects include a focus on cost management, the launch of advanced platforms like the IDS i20 analytical system, and investments in R&D to bolster its product pipeline, all of which underscore the company's commitment to long-term value creation.
RVTY's weakness stems primarily from persistent margin pressures and the downwardly revised FY25 EPS guidance, which have overshadowed the revenue beat and slight guidance lift. The company's transformation plan offers some hope of improved results down the road, but the combination of modest top-line growth and eroding margins isn't sitting well with investors today.
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