| | | Jim -- The Copilot view that you provided was useful, but somewhat misleading. As the AI program points out, it's likely that Qualcomm will not sell any modems to Apple in FY26, which starts October 1. Qualcomm may still sell some modems to Apple this calendar year, 2025. But what is misleading is that Qualcomm will continue to receive royalties from Apple for any claims on any patents practiced in iPhones being shipped now and into the coming year. That issue was settled on the courthouse steps as Qualcomm began its opening statement in its patent infringement suit against Apple in 2019.
Even with Apple designing and producing its own processor chips, I doubt that any Apple wireless device, whether an iPhone, iPad, or larger computer with a built-in wireless communication facility can work around Qualcomm patents. RFFE? Power management? Antenna design and placement? Not likely as long as the Qualcomm patents haven't been exhausted by expiration.
Qualcomm has always been conservative in its guidance and related estimates. There's nothing in the latest earnings report and conference call that would indicate a change in that policy. But, as I've noted in several earlier posts, one cannot ignore the impact of tariffs and slowing economic growth in future QCOM earnings per share. Just today, the new jobs report was below expectations at a time when inflation is increasing. The word that most precisely describes this condition is STAGFLATION, which also occurred during the Vietnam war in the mid-1960's, and which caused stock prices to weaken for several years. Let's not kid ourselves into believing that a mere cut in the Federal Reserve interest rate will remedy the situation.
Let's also remember that Qualcomm, a major worldwide supplier of reference designs, chips, and royalty bearing patents, is not about to be dragged down more than it has been already.
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