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Strategies & Market Trends : Young and Older Folk Portfolio
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From: SeeksQuality8/1/2025 5:22:35 PM
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This is a concerning political move. There is inevitable bias in preparing these estimates, since the immediate read is based on incomplete information. While the latest month gets the headlines, it is also the most uncertain. It is the prior months (and the revision thereof) that are supported by the most data.

The accusations in this case don't make sense to me. The initial estimates from May and June were too high, results that Trump lauded. If there was unconscious bias involved, it was an effort to please the man at the top by turning in numbers that were too optimistic. We saw that in 2024 as well. Wasn't it the August report that came in with a sharp downward revision of the two prior months? So I don't see any reason to suspect a pattern of making Republicans look bad. The Democrats took a lot of heat from the downward revision leading up to the 2024 elections.

Competence is another question. My guess is that the models that these estimates are based on are fracturing, leading to large misses. But that's a lot more than just the person at the top. It likely reflects structural changes in the economy, which is hardly shocking given the number of moving parts this year. Given time, the data wonks will adjust.

I strongly favor an independent BLS and an independent Fed. I believe it is a mistake to allow the data reads and monetary policy to be politicized. If people stop trusting these institutions (think China - NOBODY trusts any of their official numbers) then the economy fights a perpetual uphill battle. Historically the US has been one of the "cleanest dirty shirts" in this regard. The economic reads are far from perfect, but people have accepted them with a degree of trust. We don't want that to change.
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