| | | Ketch / Jay / Elroy. Re: Short sell hedge funds -
I recently got caught up in one, my second largest holding SMCI ( Super Micro), A "nice" 68% share price drop from the day before the report till it hit rock bottom. But a nice recovery since then. Before the Hindenburg report SMCI had another mishap which is discussed below. As you can see from the chart below, SMCI (which is tied to NVDA, went hyperbolic in Jan' 24.
Gemini Summary>>>
Can you summarize our whole convo on SMCI short sell hedge fund Hindenburg, the fact that its major charges were false, the SP losses subsequent to its report, and a brief summary of SMCI business and how it directly ties to NVDA GPU sales and revenue
Based on our previous conversations, here is a summary of the key points you've requested regarding Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), including the short-seller report, the subsequent stock price movement, the refutation of the claims, and the company's business model.
Short-Seller Report and Refutation
- Short-Seller: The report was published by the short-selling firm Hindenburg Research (not "Heilburg") on August 27, 2024.
- Charges: The report accused SMCI of various wrongdoings, including "accounting manipulation, sibling self-dealing and sanctions evasion," and labeled the company an "AI faker."
- Refutation: A special committee at SMCI conducted an independent review (and new auditor) and announced in November 2024 that it found no evidence of fraud or misconduct by management, effectively clearing the company of the most serious allegations.
Stock Price (SP) Losses
The stock price declines you asked about were not a single event but a combination of two major moments:
- SP loss from the day before the missed pre-announcement to the day before the Hindenburg report:
- Start: On April 18, 2024, the closing price was approximately $872.00.
- End: On August 26, 2024, the closing price was approximately $547.64.
- Total Loss: A decline of $324.36, which is a 37.19% loss.
- SP loss from the day of the Hindenburg report to the absolute SP bottom:
- Start: On August 27, 2024, the closing price was approximately $54.76 (split-adjusted).
- End: The stock reached its absolute bottom of approximately $17.25 on November 15, 2024.
- Total Loss: A decline of $37.51, which is a 68.5% loss.
SMCI Business and its Connection to NVIDIA (NVDA)
- Business Model: SMCI is a key partner in the AI supply chain. Its primary business is to design, build, and sell complete, customized, and high-performance server systems. Their "Building Block Solutions" approach allows them to rapidly integrate the latest components.
- Direct Tie to NVDA: SMCI's business is directly tied to NVIDIA because SMCI is a major customer for NVIDIA's GPUs. SMCI takes these powerful GPUs and integrates them into their servers, which they then sell to a wide range of customers, including cloud service providers and data centers.
- Revenue Synergy: NVIDIA's GPU sales are a key component of SMCI's servers, and SMCI's revenue figure (for example, $14.9 billion in 2024) includes the cost of the NVIDIA GPUs embedded in the final products they sell.
- Competitive Advantage: SMCI's competitive advantages include its speed to market with new NVIDIA-based systems and its pioneering work in direct liquid cooling technology, which is essential for managing the heat generated by modern AI GPUs.
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