Art, I’ve updated my data as it was a month or two old. I had misunderstood the 98 number of failures.
I suspect that Gemini‘s response below is only covering the data up until 2022. I’m too lazy to look at the detailed references that came with that response. :-). Ian
Based on a comprehensive review of clinical trials for Alzheimer's disease, the figure of 98 failures, specifically for Phase II and III trials targeting amyloid-beta and tau, has been cited in a significant scientific review article published in 2022. This number, which included both Phase II and III trials, reflected the state of research up to that point.
These failures, often resulting from futility analyses, underscore the immense challenge of developing effective treatments for Alzheimer's disease. A futility analysis is a statistical check during a trial to see if it's likely to succeed. If the chance of success is too low, the trial is stopped early.
The key takeaways from these numerous failures are:
* High Failure Rate: The vast majority of trials, particularly those focused on the amyloid-beta and tau hypotheses, have not yielded a successful drug.
* Futility as a Major Cause: A large number of these trials were terminated early based on futility analyses, indicating that the drugs were unlikely to show a meaningful benefit to patients.
* Re-evaluation of the Hypotheses: The consistent failures have led researchers to question the long-standing amyloid and tau hypotheses as the sole drivers of the disease, prompting a shift toward exploring other therapeutic targets and more complex disease mechanisms.
It's important to note that the exact number can fluctuate as new trials begin, fail, or succeed. However, the number 98 represents a key milestone in the history of Alzheimer's research and highlights the monumental challenges that the field has faced. |
