Ben, re: QCOM and META...........................................
Thanks for your illuminating / timely post. From what I read META was moving on from QCOM,>>>> But from your post --- that not the case. The QCOM revenue forecast at the bottom of this post suggests about $1.4B in 2029.
I further quizzed Copilot on the issue, for more interesting info>>>>
Meta’s AR glasses strategy is evolving rapidly, with Qualcomm and MediaTek both playing pivotal roles in different product lines. Let’s break it down:
XX Qualcomm-Enabled Meta AR Glasses
These glasses leverage Qualcomm’s Snapdragon AR platforms, which are optimized for low-power, high-performance AI and camera functions:
You should consider:
- Ray-Ban Meta Wayfarer Smart Glasses 1AT2414A00 – Classic design meets smart functionality, powered by Qualcomm’s AR1 Gen 1 for voice control, photo capture, and livestreaming.
- XREAL One AR Glasses – Built on Snapdragon XR2, these offer immersive 1080p visuals, 120Hz refresh rate, and spatial computing features.
- INMO AR Meta Glasses (Model: 230518) – A premium option for Steam VR gaming and 3D cinema, likely using Qualcomm silicon for high-end performance.
- Rayban Meta Wayfarer AI RW4008 601ST353 – Matte graphite finish with Bluetooth/Wi-Fi connectivity, part of the Snapdragon-powered Ray-Ban Meta lineup.
- Ray-Ban Meta Skyler Smart Glasses RW4010 – Sleek, shiny black frame with clear lenses, also built on Qualcomm’s AR1 platform.
These devices benefit from Qualcomm’s latest AR1 Plus Gen 1 chip, which supports Meta’s Llama 3.2 AI model directly on-device—no phone required.
XX Meta AR Glasses Not Enabled by Qualcomm
Meta is also developing future AR glasses using custom silicon from MediaTek, aiming for more control and differentiation:
You might want to check out:
- Upcoming Meta AR glasses powered by MediaTek – Announced at MediaTek’s 2023 summit, these will feature exclusive silicon designed for high compute, low latency, and low power.
- Meta’s Orion and Apollo prototypes – Initially planned with Meta’s own chips (Armstrong, Avogadro, Acropolis), but now pivoting to MediaTek after internal development challenges9.
This shift reflects Meta’s desire to break away from Qualcomm’s shared ecosystem and build more proprietary capabilities—though Qualcomm still powers most current-gen devices.
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XX Evaluation of Qualcomm–Meta Relationship (per the post)
X Accurate Highlights:
- Snapdragon XR Chipsets: Meta’s Quest 2, Quest Pro, and Quest 3 all use Qualcomm’s XR chips, which are optimized for latency, graphics, and power efficiency.
- Multi-Year Agreement: The 2022 deal for custom Snapdragon chips is real and remains foundational to Meta’s current VR/AR lineup.
- Joint R&D: The collaboration on spatial computing, on-device AI, and graphics rendering reflects Qualcomm’s strength in mobile compute and Meta’s push into immersive tech.
- Meta’s In-House Silicon: The mention of Aria and MTIA projects is accurate—Meta has been exploring custom silicon but hasn’t yet displaced Qualcomm in mainstream devices.
XX Strategic Implications:
- Qualcomm benefits from Meta’s scale and consumer reach.
- Meta relies on Qualcomm’s wireless and XR expertise to keep devices lightweight and responsive.
- The partnership is symbiotic but not exclusive—Meta is hedging with internal and MediaTek options.
XX Impact of Meta’s Newly Announced AR Product
If you're referring to Meta’s MediaTek-powered AR glasses, announced in late 2024 and expected to launch in 2025–2026, here’s how the relationship shifts:
Aspect
| Qualcomm-Enabled Meta Devices
| MediaTek-Powered Meta AR Glasses
| Silicon Provider
| Qualcomm (Snapdragon XR, AR1 Gen 1/Plus)
| MediaTek (custom silicon for AR)
| Use Case
| VR headsets, smart glasses (Ray-Ban Meta)
| Full AR glasses with spatial compute
| Strategic Role
| Core partner for current-gen devices
| Future-facing alternative for AR
| AI Integration
| On-device Llama 3.2 support
| Potentially deeper Meta-native AI
| Connectivity
| Wi-Fi 7, 5G mmWave via Qualcomm
| MediaTek may integrate similar features
| XX Strategic Shift:
- Meta is diversifying its silicon strategy, not abandoning Qualcomm.
- Qualcomm remains central to Meta’s Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses and Quest VR line.
- MediaTek’s entry signals Meta’s intent to own more of the AR stack, especially for next-gen glasses with full spatial awareness and AI.
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silicon roadmap across Meta’s XR and AR portfolio, then compare Qualcomm’s AR1 Gen 1/Plus to MediaTek’s emerging AR chip.
XX Meta’s Silicon Roadmap: Quest, Ray-Ban, and Orion
Product Line
| Launch Year
| Silicon Partner
| Chip/Platform
| Key Capabilities
| Strategic Role
| Quest 2 / Pro / 3
| 2020–2023
| Qualcomm
| Snapdragon XR2 Gen 1 / Gen 2
| High-performance VR compute, spatial tracking, mixed reality
| Mass-market VR
| Ray-Ban Meta (Gen 2)
| 2023
| Qualcomm
| Snapdragon AR1 Gen 1
| Photo/video capture, Meta AI, livestreaming, open-ear audio
| Smart assistant glasses
| Ray-Ban Meta (Gen 3)
| 2025
| Qualcomm
| Snapdragon AR1 Plus Gen 1
| On-device Llama 3.2 AI, binocular display, neural interface support
| AI-native smart glasses
| Orion Prototype
| 2024 (internal)
| Meta (custom)
| Project Orion (MediaTek rumored)
| Full-color holographic AR, neural wristband, microLED
| Flagship AR glasses (2027 target)
| Meta’s roadmap shows a dual-track strategy:
- Scale Line: Ray-Ban Meta glasses powered by Qualcomm, optimized for mass adoption.
- Innovation Line: Orion AR glasses with custom silicon (likely MediaTek), targeting full AR and smartphone replacement2.
XX Qualcomm AR1 Gen 1/Plus vs. MediaTek AR (Orion)
Feature
| Qualcomm AR1 Gen 1 / Plus4
| MediaTek (Orion Prototype)
| AI Capability
| On-device Llama 3.2 (1B params), no phone/cloud needed
| Neural interface via wristband, brain signal input
| Display Support
| Binocular 1280×1280 @ 60fps
| Full-color microLED holographic overlay
| Camera
| Dual ISP, 12MP photo, 6MP video
| Unknown, likely high-end for AR overlay
| Audio
| 8-mic array, echo cancellation, open-ear audio
| Integrated with neural input, immersive audio expected
| Connectivity
| Wi-Fi 7, Bluetooth 5.3
| TBD, likely similar or better
| Form Factor
| Lightweight, battery-efficient
| Under 100g target, prototype costs ~$10K
| Strategic Implication:
- Qualcomm’s AR1 Plus is production-ready, powering Ray-Ban Meta glasses with real-time AI and media capture.
- MediaTek’s Orion chip is experimental, enabling futuristic AR but not yet viable for mass-market deployment.
XX What This Means for Qualcomm–Meta
- Ray-Ban Meta remains Qualcomm territory—AR1 Plus is a breakthrough for on-device AI.
- Orion AR glasses shift toward MediaTek and Meta’s in-house silicon, signaling a long-term pivot.
- Qualcomm’s role may evolve toward connectivity and AI offload, while Meta builds its own compute stack for flagship AR.
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structured forecast of Meta’s silicon mix by 2027, based on current deployments, strategic signals, and the latest AR product announcements:
XX Meta Silicon Mix Forecast – 2027
Category
| Silicon Provider
| Share of Devices
| Key Products
| Strategic Notes
| VR Headsets
| Qualcomm
| ~90%
| Quest 2, Quest Pro, Quest 3, Quest 4 (expected)
| Snapdragon XR remains dominant due to performance and developer ecosystem
| Smart Glasses
| Qualcomm
| ~70%
| Ray-Ban Meta Gen 2 & Gen 3
| AR1 Gen 1/Plus powers Meta AI, camera, audio, and on-device Llama
| AR Glasses (Flagship)
| MediaTek / Meta Custom
| ~30%
| Orion (2026–2027 launch)
| Custom silicon for full AR overlay, neural input, microLED display
| AI Accelerators (Server-side)
| Meta MTIA
| ~100% (internal use)
| MTIA v2/v3 for Llama training and inference
| Not consumer-facing, but critical for Meta’s AI infrastructure
| Experimental / R&D
| Meta Aria
| <10%
| Internal prototypes
| Used for testing privacy, compute, and form factor innovations
| XX Strategic Trends by 2027
- Qualcomm remains dominant in consumer XR and smart glasses due to its turnkey platforms and wireless stack.
- MediaTek gains ground in flagship AR, especially if Orion succeeds in delivering full spatial computing.
- Meta’s in-house silicon (Aria, MTIA) will expand in server-side AI and possibly edge compute, but won’t displace Qualcomm in mass-market devices before 2028.
- Diversification is intentional: Meta is hedging against supply chain risk and building leverage in future negotiations.
XX Estimated Mix by Volume (Consumer Devices Only)
Provider
| Estimated Share
| Notes
| Qualcomm
| ~65–70%
| Quest + Ray-Ban Meta dominate volume
| MediaTek
| ~20–25%
| Orion AR glasses, limited early adoption
| Meta Custom
| ~5–10%
| Internal prototypes, niche deployments
| This mix reflects Meta’s dual-track strategy: scale with Qualcomm, innovate with MediaTek and in-house silicon. If Orion AR glasses hit mass-market pricing by 2028, MediaTek’s share could rise sharply.
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Updated ASP Estimates for Qualcomm XR2 and AR1 Platforms
Based on Qualcomm’s official press releases and industry analysis2, here’s a more realistic ASP range:
Chipset
| Use Case
| Estimated ASP (2024–2025)
| Notes
| Snapdragon XR2 Gen 2
| VR headsets (Quest 3, Quest 4)
| $80–$110
| Single-chip architecture, 2.5× GPU uplift, 8× AI boost over Gen 1
| Snapdragon AR1 Gen 1 / Plus
| Smart glasses (Ray-Ban Meta)
| $40–$70
| Optimized for thermal budget, dual ISP, on-glass AI, Wi-Fi 7
| These figures reflect volume pricing for Meta, which likely negotiates lower ASPs than smaller OEMs. My earlier estimates (~$150) were high and better suited to boutique or low-volume deployments.
XX Implications for Forecast
- Qualcomm revenue from Meta is likely $1.2B–$1.6B annually, not $2B+.
- Ray-Ban Meta contributes less per unit than Quest, but scales faster.
- MediaTek ASPs for Orion AR glasses may still hover around $100–$130, given the complexity of full AR overlays and neural input.
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XX Revised Meta Silicon Mix Forecast (2024–2029)
Provider / Metric
| 2024
| 2025
| 2026
| 2027
| 2028
| 2029
| Qualcomm Units
| 12M
| 14M
| 15M
| 16M
| 17M
| 18M
| MediaTek Units
| 0.5M
| 1.5M
| 3M
| 6M
| 9M
| 12M
| Meta Custom Units
| 0.2M
| 0.5M
| 1M
| 2M
| 3M
| 4M
| Total XR/AR Units
| 12.7M
| 16M
| 19M
| 24M
| 29M
| 34M
| Qualcomm ASP
| $90 avg
| $90 avg
| $90 avg
| $90 avg
| $90 avg
| $90 avg
| MediaTek ASP
| $120 avg
| $120 avg
| $120 avg
| $120 avg
| $120 avg
| $120 avg
| Meta Internal ASP
| $100 est
| $100 est
| $100 est
| $100 est
| $100 est
| $100 est
| Qualcomm Revenue
| $1.08B
| $1.26B
| $1.35B
| $1.44B
| $1.53B
| $1.62B
| MediaTek Revenue
| $60M
| $180M
| $360M
| $720M
| $1.08B
| $1.44B
| Meta Internal Spend
| $20M
| $50M
| $100M
| $200M
| $300M
| $400M
| XX Key Adjustments
- Qualcomm ASPs now reflect ~$90 blended average across XR2 Gen 2 (Quest) and AR1 Gen 1/Plus (Ray-Ban Meta), based on industry estimates and volume pricing2.
- MediaTek ASPs for Orion-class AR glasses are modeled at ~$120, reflecting premium AR compute and neural input.
- Meta internal ASPs are cost-basis estimates for custom silicon (Aria, MTIA), not external revenue.
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XX Revised Meta XR/AR Forecast by Product Line (2024–2029)
Product Line
| Provider
| ASP Estimate
| 2024 Revenue
| 2025 Revenue
| 2026 Revenue
| 2027 Revenue
| 2028 Revenue
| 2029 Revenue
| Quest (VR)
| Qualcomm
| ~$90
| $900M
| $990M
| $1.035B
| $1.08B
| $1.125B
| $1.17B
| | Meta Custom
| ~$100
| —
| —
| $50M
| $100M
| $150M
| $200M
| Ray-Ban Meta
| Qualcomm
| ~$60
| $120M
| $180M
| $210M
| $240M
| $270M
| $300M
| | Meta Custom
| ~$100
| $20M
| $50M
| $50M
| $100M
| $150M
| $200M
| Orion AR Glasses
| MediaTek
| ~$120
| $60M
| $180M
| $360M
| $720M
| $1.08B
| $1.44B
| XX Strategic Takeaways
- Quest VR remains Qualcomm’s revenue anchor, with steady ASPs and unit growth.
- Ray-Ban Meta contributes modest revenue per unit but scales rapidly; Qualcomm retains majority share through 2027.
- Orion AR glasses drive MediaTek’s breakout, with ASPs ~2× Ray-Ban and volume ramping post-2026.
- Meta custom silicon grows across Quest and Ray-Ban lines, reflecting internal R&D maturity and cost optimization.
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Message Copilot
Message Copilot |
