U.S. Government makes old lies new again | Open Mind
Posted on August 5, 2025 |
A report from the U.S. Dept. of Energy (DOE) (an official U.S. government report) tells us that
U.S. tide gauge measurements reveal no obvious acceleration beyond the historical average rate of sea level rise.
It’s one of the main points of chapter 7 (Changes in Sea Level). But the DOE report is not the origin of this particular falsehood. For instance …
Back in 2010, the North Carolina Coastal Resource Commission published the North Carolina Sea Level Rise Assessment Report. Dave Burton of “NC-20” (a trade group for business interests in the coastal counties of NC) ridiculed their results, claiming that the only sensible way to forecast future sea level rise was to fit a straight line to the data from the past, and extrapolate that into the future.
Suppose that in 2010, instead of using the forecasts from North Carolina’s Coastal Resource Commission we had just followed Dave Burton’s advice. Wilmington, NC has the longest tide-gauge record in the state; in the following graph of yearly average sea level, the blue line shows the straight-line fit to the data before 2010, the red line extrapolates to the year 2050 (a future time which seems to be of interest to some people):
Sea level at Wilmington has already exceeded the straight-line 2050 forecast.
Back in 2016, Florida’s Climate Science Advisory Panel (CSAP) produced Recommended Projection of Sea Level Rise in the Tampa Bay Region. Willis Eschenbach ridiculed their results that sea level might rise faster than it has in the historical record, saying
“Finally, look at the St. Petersburg sea level dataset, or any Florida sea level dataset. None of them show any significant acceleration, despite covering the period of recent warming. Warming but no acceleration of sea level rise … oops.”
Suppose that back in 2016, instead of using the forecasts from Florida’s Climate Science Advisory Panel we just ignored acceleration. St. Petersburg has the longest tide-gauge record in the Tampa Bay region; in the following graph of yearly average sea level, the blue line shows the straight-line fit to the data before 2016, the red line extrapolates to the year 2050:
As at Wilmington, sea level at St. Petersburg has already exceeded the straight-line 2050 forecast.
North Carolina, the Tampa Bay region, and places all along the east coast of the U.S.A (including the Gulf of Mexico), have this in common: when we take into account acceleration of sea level, it seems that future costs are going to be HUGE.
They also have this in common: any serious analysis of the data reveals recent acceleration which is overwhelmingly statistically significant. Those who claim otherwise either have not seriously analyzed the data (all of which is publicly available), or they are simply telling a lie.
And they have this in common: in each case there has been a climate denier to deny the truth. The most recent case is the worst, a report which is “Copyright © 2025 United States.” |
