Market Snapshot
| Dow | 44175.61 | +206.97 | (0.47%) | | Nasdaq | 21448.63 | +207.32 | (0.98%) | | SP 500 | 6389.45 | +49.45 | (0.78%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1486 | Dec 1226 | Vol 1.04 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 2353 | Dec 2125 | Vol 8.70 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Communication Services, Information Technology, Health Care, Financials |
| | Weak: Utilities, Real Estate |
Moving the Market
Broad-based gains prompt opening gains in the major averages, with mega-cap names seeing early strength
Persisting "buy the dip" mentality reflected in today's trade
S&P 500 chasing record closing high
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Nasdaq Composite hits record closing high, S&P 500 just misses
08-Aug-25 16:30 ET
Dow +206.97 at 44175.61, Nasdaq +207.32 at 21448.63, S&P +49.45 at 6389.45
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market steadily built on its opening strength, with gains in the mega-cap stocks propelling the major averages higher throughout the session. The S&P 500 finished just shy of a new all-time closing high, while the Nasdaq Composite hit a new record high.
The S&P 500 (+0.8%) finished 0.22 points beneath its all-time closing high of 6,389.77, though it traded slightly above that mark for much of the afternoon. The Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%) saw the biggest gain today, and the DJIA (+0.5%) also finished with a decent gain.
There was no real macro catalyst for today's advance. There wasn’t any economic data that was released, and while the market received a hefty batch of earnings reports, they were mostly from small- to medium-sized companies.
Nevertheless, the stock market performed well, being left to its own devices. This week's persistent "buy the dip" mentality contributed to eight S&P 500 sectors finishing with gains, with only the real estate (-0.8%), utilities (-0.5%), and industrials (flat) sectors sitting out today's advance.
Meanwhile, the communication services (+1.2%), information technology (+1.2%), financials (+0.9%), and health care (+0.9%) sectors captured nice gains.
Mega-cap names had a strong session, with Apple (AAPL 229.35, +9.32, +4.24%), Alphabet (GOOG 202.09, +4.81, +2.44%), and Tesla (TSLA 329.68, +7.40, +2.30%) underpinning a 0.9% gain in the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF. Remarkably, Apple was up 13.3% for the week.
Smaller stocks largely missed out on today's action. The market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.8%) outperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (flat). Additionally, the Russell 2000 advanced 0.1%, while the S&P MidCap 400 finished with a loss of 0.1%.
Just before the close, The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump's team of advisers is adding James Bullard and Marc Summerlin to the list of possible Fed Chair nominations, which also includes Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. James Bullard is the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and Marc Summerlin was an economic adviser for the Bush administration.
The market heard from current St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, who suggested that inflation could remain elevated due to tariffs and indicated that keeping the current policy rate appears appropriate. Musalem, a voting member of the FOMC this year, also noted that he remains open-minded.
On the trade front, gold futures settled $37.60 higher (+1.1%) at $3,491.30/oz, up about +2.7% on the week; the move was driven by growing uncertainty after reports surfaced that U.S. Customs may begin imposing a 39% tariff on standard 1-kg and 100-oz gold bars. However, Bloomberg reported this afternoon that the White House will issue an executive order clarifying that such gold bars will not be subject to tariffs.
Elsewhere in geopolitical news, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. and Russia are negotiating terms for an agreement that would cede to Russia some of the territory that it has occupied during its military occupation in Ukraine.
This was followed up by a CNBC report that a summit between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is now tentatively scheduled for later next week, though a location for the summit has not yet been disclosed. It is still unclear what role Ukrainian President Zelenskyy will play in the negotiations.
Crude oil futures briefly moved below their opening levels in response but settled 0.1% higher at $63.88 per barrel.
U.S. Treasuries retreated on Friday, deepening their pullback from three-month highs that were reached in the wake of last week's disappointing jobs report for July. The 2-year note yield settled up three basis points at 3.76% (+6 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled up four basis points at 4.29% (+7 basis points this week).
- Nasdaq Composite: +3.9% WTD
- S&P 500: +2.4% WTD
- Russell 2000: +2.4% WTD
- DJIA: +1.4% WTD
- S&P Midcap 400: +0.6% WTD
S&P at record closing high
08-Aug-25 15:30 ET
Dow +246.16 at 44214.80, Nasdaq +201.55 at 21442.86, S&P +51.21 at 6391.21
[BRIEFING.COM] An uneventful afternoon of trading has the major averages in position to capture healthy week-to-date gains.
The S&P 500 is currently doing some late session record hunting, as the index hovers just a few points above its all-time closing high of 6,389.77.
The market has performed well today in the absence of macro catalysts but will be tested next week by a slate of economic data, including the July CPI report, which is seen as the single most important release for shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Trade developments are still unfolding as several key partners lobby the U.S. for exemptions, while geopolitical headlines are an additional factor, as President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet.
At session highs near the close
08-Aug-25 15:00 ET
Dow +236.17 at 44204.81, Nasdaq +207.98 at 21449.29, S&P +51.12 at 6391.12
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages are at their session highs, with the S&P 500 (+0.8%) a couple points above its all-time closing high of 6,389.77.
The financials sector (+1.1%) is currently one of the best-performing S&P 500 sectors today, with its advance pushing it into positive territory for the week.
Payment card stocks, including Mastercard (MA 575.51, +14.29, +2.55%), Visa (V 336.55, +4.46, +1.34%), and American Express (AXP 297.96, +3.24, +1.10%), are trading higher today after yesterday's retreat contributed to a 1.1% loss in the financials sector.
As it stands, only the energy and health care sectors hold week-to-date losses.
S&P 500 rises 0.8% on Monster, Albemarle gains; GoDaddy slumps on guidance concerns
08-Aug-25 14:30 ET
Dow +241.45 at 44210.09, Nasdaq +196.65 at 21437.96, S&P +50.75 at 6390.75
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.80%) is in second place on Friday afternoon, up more than 50 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Albemarle (ALB 75.61, +5.55, +7.92%), Monster Beverage (MNST 64.67, +3.87, +6.37%), and Micron (MU 118.19, +6.32, +5.65%) dot the top of the standings. For its part, MNST surges after reporting stronger-than-expected Q2 results with record $2.1 billion sales and beating EPS estimates, prompting Piper Sandler to upgrade the stock to Overweight.
Meanwhile, GoDaddy (GDDY 133.95, -16.30, -10.85%) is one of today's worst performers, lower despite a top and bottom-line beat as investors react to a modest guidance raise, slowing Core revenue growth, and the upcoming loss of its .CO registry business, all of which undercut elevated expectations following strong year-to-date performance.
Gold rallies 1.1% to $3,491 as tariff risks, rate cut hopes fuel safe-haven demand
08-Aug-25 14:00 ET
Dow +250.28 at 44218.92, Nasdaq +200.88 at 21442.19, S&P +51.73 at 6391.73
[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (+0.95%) is in first place, up more than 200 points on Friday afternoon.
Gold futures settled $37.60 higher (+1.1%) at $3,491.30/oz, up about +2.7% on the week; the move was driven by growing uncertainty after reports surfaced that U.S. Customs may begin imposing a 39% tariff on standard 1-kg and 100-oz gold bars. These bar sizes are widely used in global trade, and the policy shift could disrupt imports, particularly from Switzerland, a major refining hub. At the same time, recent weak U.S. payroll data reinforced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts, which boosted demand for gold as a non-yielding safe-haven asset.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up about +0.1% to $98.14.
Expedia Group nicely higher after Q2 results; US travel demand may be turning the corner (EXPE)
Expedia Group (EXPE +5%) opened to a 3-year high today following its Q2 results last night. This online travel company reported EPS and revenue above expectations, similar to peers Airbnb (ABNB) and Booking Holdings (BKNG). What's different is that EXPE is seeing a nice move higher today while ABNB and BKNG traded lower. We think this is because the company raised its FY25 revenue and gross bookings guidance, while ABNB and BKNG struck a more cautious tone. Although EXPE saw muted US travel demand during the quarter, signs of improvement in the US and the outperformance of its other brands supported the move.
- EXPE posted sequential improvement across several key metrics in Q2, with gross bookings up 5% yr/yr (vs. 4% in Q1), booked room nights up 7% (vs. 6%), and revenue up 6% (vs. 3%). By region, booked room nights increased low-single digits in the US, mid-single digits in EMEA, and mid-teens in the rest of the world. Management pointed out that Asia was particularly strong with a 20% yr/yr increase in booked room nights.
- B2B and Advertising continue to be bright spots. B2B bookings increased 17% yr/yr, marking 16 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. Advertising revenue was up 19%, driven by a record number of active partners.
- Its core brand, Expedia, continues to be its largest and fastest growing consumer brand, with multi-term attach rates at the highest level since the pandemic. Alternative brands include Hotels.com and VRBO. Hotel.com bookings declined slightly yr/yr while VRBO room nights were roughly in line with the US market. Management did point out that Hotels.com room nights accelerated from Q1.
- Taking a step back to EXPE's commentary on US travel demand and its consumer. EXPE noted that the US travel market was muted in Q2, with consumers at the higher end of the market remaining resilient, while those at the lower end have taken a more cautious approach to travel spend. What stood out to us is that since the beginning of July, management noted an uptick in overall travel demand, particularly in the US. As a result, the company raised both its FY25 revenue and gross bookings guidance growth to 3-5% from 2-4%, despite lapping a tough comparison in Q4.
Overall, this was a good quarter for EXPE. We were a bit cautious heading into this report given the commentary from peers ABNB and BKNG. While it was encouraging to see many metrics accelerate through the quarter, what really stood out was management's commentary on the uptick in US travel demand. We think investors are pleased to hear this since US travel demand has been particularly soft since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs.
The Trade Desk under heavy pressure following Q2 report, some large brands are facing pressure (TTD)
The Trade Desk (TTD -39%) is under heavy pressure following its Q2 report last night. It has been a roller coaster few months for this operator of a cloud-based online advertising-buying platform. The stock sold off in February following disappointing Q4 results with downside revs. Then it gapped higher in May when it beat handily on Q1 EPS and revs. However, today's Q2 report/commentary was a letdown, plus its long time CFO Laura Schenkein abruptly is stepping down. There were also several downgrades from analysts (BofA, Citi, Wedbush) this morning.
- On the positive side, the Q2 EPS beat was quite substantial, its largest EPS beat in four years. Revenue rose a healthy 18.7% yr/yr to $694 mln, which was above expectations. Excluding political spend related to the US elections last year, revenue grew about 20% yr/yr. However, the Q3 revenue guidance of "at least $717 mln" was just in-line, whereas TTD is usually more bullish with its guidance.
- TTD said growth was particularly strong within CTV and retail media. CTV continues to be TTD's fastest growing channel with no signs of slowing down. Partners like Disney, NBCU, Walmart, Roku, LG, Netflix and many others are deepening their relationships with TTD. TTD says it could not be more excited about its position in CTV, and the size of the growth opportunity in the years ahead.
- However, TTD was more cautious on its macro view. TTD concedes that some of world's largest brands are absolutely facing pressure and some amount of uncertainty. Some have to respond more than others to tariffs. TTD sees this uncertainty as an opportunity for to grab land because its programmatic technology is measurable and agile. Advertisers are more performance-driven and deliberate with their spend and that plays into TTD's strength.
- Digging a bit deeper here, an analyst asked how big brands like P&G, Kimberly-Clark, Ford, Volkswagen talked about uncertainty on their earnings calls and what impact this has on TTD. The company said Q4 was relatively stable, though you could see signs of volatility beneath the surface as this was a fairly contentious election cycle. That pressure intensified in Q1 with growing concerns among the largest brands and agencies, which make up the vast majority of TTD's business.
- TTD added that, at the beginning of April, some of the biggest brands, particularly in sectors like auto and CPG which are meaningful categories for TTD, began to experience even greater volatility. However, since then, things have stabilized. TTD also noted that some peers rely heavily on SMBs, but TTD's platform is largely concentrated on large global advertisers. As such, tariffs are impacting them to a larger degree. TTD says its customer focus is almost always a positive, but in this moment, it's a negative.
So why is the stock so aggressively lower? We think it's a combination of more cautious-than-usual guidance, bearish macro comments on the call, several analyst downgrades, and the abrupt departure of its long time CFO is spooking investors a bit. Also, the stock had roughly doubled from its April lows, so sentiment was running pretty high heading into this report. It would not take much for people to lock in those gains. The size of today's drop did surprise us though.
Airbnb travels lower despite upside Q2 results; cautious Q3 outlook weighing on shares (ABNB)
Airbnb (ABNB -8%) is traveling lower today after reporting its Q2 results last night. Despite reporting EPS and revenue upside, the alternative accommodations company is seeing some selling pressure from investors. We think investors are responding to ABNB's Q3 and FY25 outlook, which points out tougher yr/yr comps later in Q3 and into Q4, putting pressure on growth rates in 2H25.
- ABNB had 134 mln Nights and Seats Booked, up 7% yr/yr. A positive was that ABNB saw an acceleration in yr/yr Nights and Seats Booked with growth rates for May and June both outpacing Q1. Gross booking value is another key business metric for ABNB. GBV increased 11% yr/yr to $23.5 bln, compared to 7.5% yr/yr growth to $24.5 bln in Q1.
- A quick note, Nights and Seats Booked is a new metric and alternative to its prior Nights and Experiences Booked. The metric now includes the number of nights booked for stays as well as the total number of seats booked for both services and experiences. Airbnb Services (chef, photographer, catering etc.) and its reimagined Experiences launched in May. ABNB noted that while it's early, over 60,000 people have submitted applications to host a service or experience.
- For regional performance, Nights and Seats Booked increased in the high teens in Latin America, mid-teens in Asia Pacific, and mid-single digits in EMEA. North America continues to lag its other regions, growing only low-single digits. Management called out specific strength in Brazil and Japan, with Japan having an acceleration in booked nights, driven by more domestic travel and a 15% yr/yr increase in first-time bookers.
- Moving on to what we think is causing a negative reaction in the stock. ABNB noted it saw encouraging demand trends, specifically the acceleration of nights booked from April through July, with particularly strong momentum in the US. That said, yr/yr comps get tougher in Q3, putting pressure on growth rates, which is expected to continue into Q4. As a result, Q3 Nights and Seats Booked is expected to be flat sequentially, while Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be lower yr/yr.
Overall, while ABNB had several positives and upside Q2 results, the cautious Q3 outlook is weighing more heavily on shares. Its new services and experiences offer further growth opportunities, but it's still too small and early for those benefits to resonate with investors who are focused on the near-term outlook. We saw something similar with Booking Holdings (BKNG) when it reported its Q2 results last week. Despite the upside results, shares traded lower as the company was a bit cautious on US inbound travel. On a final note, peer Expedia (EXPE) will report its Q2 results today after the close. This report from ABNB makes us a little more cautious on EXPE's report tonight.
Dutch Bros energizes investors with stellar beat-and-raise report (BROS)
Dutch Bros (BROS) delivered a stellar Q2 earnings report, sparking a significant stock surge on the back of an impressive beat-and-raise performance. Key drivers included strong same shop sales growth, new shop openings, and robust engagement in the Dutch Rewards loyalty program. Fixed cost leverage, particularly in beverage and packaging costs, further bolstered margins, supporting a 37% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $89 mln.
Furthermore, the company raised its FY25 guidance, projecting revenues of $1.59-$1.60 bln and adjusted EBITDA of $285-$290 mln, reflecting confidence in sustained momentum.
- Despite a challenging consumer spending environment impacting discretionary categories, BROS continues to outperform competitors like Starbucks (SBUX), and fast-food chains like McDonald’s (MCD) and Yum! Brands (YUM), which have faced headwinds from softening demand. The company’s success stems from its focus on iced and customizable beverages, which resonate strongly with younger demographics, particularly Gen Z and Millennials, who value personalization and convenience.
- Drive-thru efficiency, with 90% systemwide mobile order coverage, enhances customer experience and throughput, while menu innovations like Poppin’ Boba and Protein Coffee drive incremental sales. BROS’ people-first culture and brand authenticity, emphasized by CEO Christine Barone, further differentiate it in a crowded market, fostering loyalty and sustaining demand even in a choppy macro backdrop.
- Company-operated same shop sales surged 7.8% in Q2, driven by a 5.9% increase in transactions and a 1.9% uptick in average ticket, reflecting both higher customer traffic and modest pricing power. The Dutch Rewards program saw transactions rise to 71.6% of total sales, up from 66.7% in 2Q24, underscoring growing customer loyalty and engagement.
- This strong performance prompted BROS to raise its FY25 same-shop sales growth guidance to approximately 4.5%, up from a prior midpoint of 3.5%, signaling confidence in sustained traffic-led growth. The program’s success, coupled with digital initiatives like order-ahead (11% of transaction mix), continues to drive operational efficiency and customer retention.
- Profitability metrics showed significant improvement, with adjusted EPS climbing 37% yr/yr to $0.26, despite inflationary pressures, particularly in California, where labor costs rose due to a 25% yr/yr starting wage increase. Margin expansion was driven by sales leverage, lower beverage and packaging costs, and reduced labor costs as a percentage of revenue. BROS also raised its FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $285-$290 mln from $265-$275 mln, reflecting disciplined cost management and strong unit economics, with company-operated shop contribution margins reaching 31.1%. However, elevated coffee commodity costs remain a potential headwind for 2025.
- BROS’ aggressive expansion strategy remains a core growth driver, with 31 new shops opened across 13 states in Q2, bringing the total to 1,043 locations. The company is on track to open at least 160 shops in 2025, with approximately 40 planned for Q3 and 60 for Q4, aligning with its long-term goal of over 7,000 locations. New store average unit volumes exceeding $2 mln and disciplined real estate strategies mitigate risks associated with high CapEx per shop ($1.7 mln), particularly in high-growth markets like Texas and Florida.
BROS’ exceptional Q2 performance and raised FY25 guidance underscore its ability to thrive in a challenging consumer environment, driven by strong same shop sales, rapid expansion, and a highly engaged customer base through its Dutch Rewards program. Its brand resonance with younger generations, coupled with substantial profitability gains despite high-cost markets like California, positions it as a standout in the quick-service beverage sector.
DoorDash dashes higher on another impressive report/guidance (DASH)
DoorDash (DASH +4%) is dashing higher, although it has pulled back from its highs, following its Q2 report last night. The food delivery service giant reported solid top line growth at +24.9% yr/yr to $3.28 bln, which was nicely above analyst expectations. Total orders rose 20% yr/yr, an acceleration from +18% yr/yr in Q1, to 761 mln. Q2 Marketplace GOV rose 23% yr/yr, again above Q1's +20% yr/yr, to $24.2 bln, which was above the $23.3-23.7 bln prior guidance.
- Since DASH does not provide adjusted EPS, we think it is important for investors to focus more on adjusted EBITDA as the better metric for profitability because it's a clean adjusted number and DASH provides guidance for it. And on this score, DASH did well with adjusted EBITDA growing 52% yr/yr to $655 mln, which was above the high end prior guidance of $600-650 mln. It also guided to Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $680-780 mln, a big sequential improvement.
- In its US marketplace, yr/yr growth in Total Orders accelerated in Q2, with notable strength in the US restaurant category. Strong growth in DashPass membership contributed to a yr/yr increase in average order frequency, which reached an all-time high in Q2. DASH says high levels of consumer engagement were evident across many metrics. DASH also generated strong results from its mature cohorts in Q2.
- Ultimately, what is driving growth for DashPass is the underlying product continuing to get better. The company noted that it has been investing in DashPass for years, including adding more selection and adding features and services. As a result, DashPass is attracting more new consumers than ever before. When they graduate to DashPass, their order frequency is higher.
- In its international marketplaces, DASH added more new Wolt+ members in Q2 than in any previous quarter. While the Wolt+ membership program is still early in its development, DASH says growth in Wolt+ members helped drive yr/yr growth in average order frequency in its international marketplaces. At the same time, DASH improved unit economics, driven partly by improvements in Dasher efficiency.
- Taking a step back, DoorDash talked about its longer term success. Five years ago, it was largely one product and operating in one country (restaurant delivery in US) and today it is five businesses. DASH have a business outside of the US. It has a business outside of US restaurant delivery with its category expansions. It has its Commerce Platform, an ads business, and it is working on new businesses.
There is a lot to like with this report. What stood out was the strong upside revs an especially the adjusted EBITDA results. On the latter, DASH reported above the high end of guidance after reporting within range last quarter. DASH also guided to significant sequential growth in Q3. Finally, we remember a few years ago that investors were concerned that DASH would not perform well post-COVID when everyone ordered delivery. However, we think that concern can be put to bed. DASH has continued to grow nicely since then and has expanded into new areas.
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