I like diversification but also hold a lot of small positions. So, I am focused on either building those positions to a minimum 0.5% portfolio position (or higher) or just sell them off and move on.
I have been using AI to help me Sell when a position is => 30% CAGR. I start to peel off my high cost shares and will set a rebuy 5% - 10% lower of I still find the position a Value candidate but just over priced and/or will scale out of the position.
I am using your target holding period of 18-24 months not 5-10 years since I am playing reversion to the mean trades using a 5 year mean price target. If I get no significant move in 12-18 months, I might have to evaluate my original value thesis.
G and several other new candidates are coming up to their 18 month hold period (SOLV another, a spin off of MMM); all have had good moves w/ excellent earnings guidance BUT probably time to peel off 10%. Market at/near all time highs so when we do get a sell off, we can Buy back shares or look at other value candidate stocks.
FWIW, most of my larger gains have come off of large market sell offs. I am buying when everbody is selling. However only "selective" buys.
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Some recent Buys & Sells
SELLS
peeled off 8% VFF at $ 1.69/share; bought these earlier in the year at $0.85/share earnings on Monday. Did sell shares in 4/2020 at $17/share. Could we see that again? Avg cost $0.67/share Very long on VFF could become a teenager again
TWI peeled off 10% earnings missed took my gains selling high cost shares avg cost $7/share company stated they have huge backlog but impacted by EU tariffs
D peeled off 35% a utility
HL a small Silver miner peeled off 10%; bought 8/2019 at $1.55/share booked a 29.32% CAGR (6 year hold)
ELAN peeled off 45% bought 2/2025 booked a 189% CAGR; problem is it was only a tracking position never scaled up; a similar company as PAHC where I have a much larger holding (original buys 11/2023) showing a 83% CAGR ! These companies are in the animal health care/feed sector
ETFMG Prime Junior Silver Miners ETF (SILJ) peeled off 10% +83% CAGR (high CAGR as I only held 3 months); again small position did not scale up this position as intended
Emerson Electric Company (EMR) peeled off 10% only a 18.64% CAGR because my original buy was in 2/2023 (a 54% gain but over 2.5 year) if this grows to a 30% CAGR time to sell more.
Cvr Partners LP (UAN) peeled off 10% this is a MLP so cost basis reduced for every div distribution; CAGR +57.2% based on my original Buys from 8/2020 at an avg cost $9.64/share. Gains are taxed as ordinary income because of depreciation recapture.
Barrick Mining Corp (B) peeled off 5% only a 12.3% CAGR because my holding period was 6.25 years.
Ugi Corp (UGI) peeled off 25% and booked a 33.68% CAGR (a 1.75 year hold) and does not include the 4% div.
Gold Fields Ltd ADR (GFI) peeled off 20% booking a 9.77% CAGR sliughtly better return than $SPX for a 24.4 year hold! Yes, picked these up 3/2001 !
I have others but too many to post
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Buys and or Adds
CTSH, COLD, ASIX, FMC, BFS, ANDE, LYB, DVN, NXRT
The big theme is Ag: COLD provides storage for vegetables & fruits; ASIX manufactures fertilizer; FMC manufactures herbisides ; LYB produced materials that go into greenhouses & irrigation systems; DVN integrated Oil & NG/LNG and NG a feedstock for fertilizer. ANDE operations include commodity merchandising (grain storage and trading), renewables (ethanol production), and plant nutrient sectors. |
