Sure we'll see some manufacturing increase in the US
A huge problem is that there are almost no businesses that operate with raw materials rolling in one side and manufactured goods rolling out the other. Almost everyone sources one or more key component from someone else. The more complicated the item, the longer that chain is likely to be. And at every step, there is a chance that tariffs become a factor. The number of items marketed in this country that have every step of their manufacturing relies solely on domestic sources, including the machines used to make those various subassemblies are small, uncomplicated and stand a fair chance of being a specialty item.
You don't just wave a wand and wish those things in existence. Based on New Zealand's experience, what happens is that the economy clotheslines. More effort is spent on finding workarounds than trying to bootstrap everything required. And that results in a slow, downhill spiral as costs start to accrue non-productive costs like barnacles. Routing through third parties, using lesser quality supplies and bribery start to take their byte. There are social costs, too.
Bottom line, any increases are eaten by decreases in other areas as everyone tries to game the system. If you want to deliberately design a system to maximize abuse, it is one that depends heavily on tariffs. Just look at the US government during the glory days of the Gilded Era. Best government money could buy. For those with money. For everyone else, the 1800s was a period of declining standards of living, growing poverty, a population that was shrinking in numbers, immigration was the only thing that kept the US from collapsing, but in bodily parameters due to rampart malnutrition.` |
