Market Snapshot
| Dow | 44458.61 | +483.52 | (1.10%) | | Nasdaq | 21680.51 | +296.50 | (1.39%) | | SP 500 | 6445.76 | +72.31 | (1.13%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 2232 | Dec 521 | Vol 1.10 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 3341 | Dec 1218 | Vol 8.45 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Communication Services, Financials, Energy, Materials, Industrials |
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Moving the Market
July CPI in-line with expectations, though increases in goods indexes signal some tariff-induced inflation pressure
Increased expectations of a 25 basis-point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite eclipse record intraday highs
| July CPI prompts record highs
12-Aug-25 16:30 ET
Dow +483.52 at 44458.61, Nasdaq +296.50 at 21680.51, S&P +72.31 at 6445.76
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+1.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.4%) reached fresh intraday and closing high levels following the release of the July CPI, which was largely in line with expectations and proved to be a catalyst for a definitively winning session.
The S&P 500 reached a peak level of 6,446.55 before closing just below at 6,445.76. The Nasdaq Composite followed a similar trend, peaking at 21,689.68 and closing at 21,681.90.
Total CPI increased 0.2% month-over-month, as expected, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3%, also as expected. Those readings left CPI up 2.7% year-over-year, unchanged from June, and core CPI up 3.1% year-over-year versus 2.9% in June.
While there were some component indexes that exhibited tariff-induced inflationary pressures, the headline readings were better than feared and enough to at least temporarily quell inflation concerns.
The results of the readings further cement the strong probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 94.4% probability of a September rate cut, up from 85.9% a day ago. Furthermore, there is now a 60.5% probability of a second 25 basis-point rate cut at the October meeting, with a 49.3% probability of a third cut in December.
The idea of a friendlier interest rate environment was especially beneficial to smaller-cap stocks today. The market's risk-on mindset saw the Russell 2000 advance an impressive 3.0%, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 added 2.3%.
Large-cap and mega-cap stocks still advanced, just at a level that was more in line with the broader market. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+1.3%) slightly outperformed the market-weighted S&P 500 (+1.1%), with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+1.0%) posting a similar gain.
Today's broad-based buying interest saw advancers outpace decliners by a nearly 22-to-5 ratio on the NYSE and a nearly 3-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.
All eleven S&P 500 sectors finished in positive territory, with the communication services (+1.8%), information technology (+1.4%), financials (+1.2%), materials (+1.1%), and industrials (+1.1%) sectors closing with gains wider than 1.0%.
Though it was easy to find strength among nearly every cohort of stocks, airline companies and chipmakers were notably impressive today.
American Airlines (AAL 12.98, +1.40, +12.09%), Delta Air Lines (DAL 58.44, +4.94, +9.23%), and Southwest Air (LUV 30.72, +1.66, +5.73%) helped propel the Dow Jones Transportation Average to a 3.0% gain, while outside of the index, United Airlines (UAL 98.47, +9.14, +10.23%) and JetBlue Airways (JBLU 4.79, +0.52, +12.18%) also posted double-digit gains.
The PHLX Semiconductor Index also rose 3.0%, with companies such as NXP Semi (NXPI 220.05, +14.90, +7.26%), Microchip (MCHP 64.50, +3.55, +5.82%), and Intel (INTC 21.81, +1.16, +5.62%) making up for a subdued performance from NVIDIA (NVDA 183.16, +1.10, +0.60%).
With no major news beyond the July CPI, the market maintained its early upward momentum, lifting the major averages throughout the session, while tomorrow's absence of significant economic data will test whether the rally can hold without fresh macro catalysts.
U.S. Treasuries finished Tuesday with losses in longer tenors while the front end outperformed after the release of in-line CPI and Core CPI for July. The 2-year note yield settled down two basis points to 3.73%, and the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points at 4.29%.
- Russell 2000: +2.9% WTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +1.9% WTD
- Nasdaq Composite: +1.1% WTD
- S&P 500: +0.9% WTD
- DJIA: +0.6% WTD
Reviewing today's data:
- Total CPI increased 0.2% month-over-month, as expected. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month, also as expected. Those readings left CPI up 2.7% year-over-year, unchanged from June, and core CPI up 3.1% year-over-year, up from 2.9% in June.
- The key takeaway from the report lurks in the details. The headline readings look good, yet there are enough component indexes exhibiting tariff-induced inflation pressures (i.e., large month-over-month changes) that one can't walk away with an "all-clear" inflation signal from this report. It seems doubtful that all Fed officials will, given the 3.1% year-over-year reading for core CPI.
- The Treasury Budget for July showed a deficit of $291.1 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$140.0 billion) compared to a deficit of $243.7 billion in the same period a year ago. The July deficit resulted from outlays ($629.6 billion) exceeding receipts ($338.5 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted so the July deficit cannot be compared to the June surplus of $27.0 billion.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it showed a return to a deficit after a surprise surplus in June. Receipts from customs duties totaled $28 billion in July, increasing the year-to-date total to $136 billion.
- The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.3 in July from 98.6 in June.
Major averages well above record closing levels
12-Aug-25 15:25 ET
Dow +460.83 at 44435.92, Nasdaq +275.98 at 21659.99, S&P +68.17 at 6441.62
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages are trading in a tight range near their session highs as the market enters the final half hour of trading.
Today's advance has seen the S&P 500 (+1.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.3%) chart new record high intraday levels. The S&P 500 would need to shed 0.8% from its current level to miss out on a record closing high today, while the Nasdaq Composite would need to slide 1.0% to miss out on a record close of its own.
The consumer staples sector has fought back to its flatline, with all eleven S&P 500 sectors now at or above their opening levels.
Crude oil futures settled today's session 1.3% lower at $63.17 per barrel, the lowest closing level since early June.
Major averages near session highs
12-Aug-25 15:00 ET
Dow +452.06 at 44427.15, Nasdaq +266.77 at 21650.78, S&P +65.37 at 6438.82
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages trade near their session highs, with the Nasdaq Composite (+1.3%) leading the DJIA (+1.1%) and S&P 500 (+1.0%).
Following earlier comments from BLS Commissioner nominee E.J. Antoni suggesting that the monthly jobs report could be paused to fix methodology during a Fox Business interview, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that the plan is for the BLS to continue to publish monthly reports.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has filed a lawsuit against Eli Lilly (LLY 637.35, +2.13, +0.34%), claiming that the company bribed providers to prescribe its medications.
July U.S. budget deficit widens to $291 bln as spending outpaces record revenues
12-Aug-25 14:30 ET
Dow +504.46 at 44479.55, Nasdaq +274.71 at 21658.72, S&P +68.42 at 6441.87
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages held their higher lines following the release of the July Treasury Budget which hit at the bottom of the hour. Currently, the S&P 500 (+1.07%) is in last place, but about 68 points higher.
The Treasury Budget for June showed a deficit of $291.1 billion compared to a deficit of $243.7 billion in the same period a year ago. The July deficit resulted from outlays ($629.6 billion) exceeding receipts ($338.5 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted so the July deficit cannot be compared to the June surplus of $27.0 billion.
The key takeaway from the report is that federal spending outpaced revenue growth, even with a sharp increase in tariff collections from Trump's trade policies; for the fiscal year to date, both spending and receipts hit record highs, but outlays are rising faster, pushing the deficit higher.
Gold slips as geopolitical, tariff concerns ease
12-Aug-25 14:00 ET
Dow +479.40 at 44454.49, Nasdaq +266.27 at 21650.28, S&P +64.89 at 6438.34
[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (+1.25%) is in front on Tuesday afternoon, up more than 266 points.
Gold futures settled $4.40 lower (-0.1%) at $3,400.30/oz, amid easing geopolitical tensions and the fading of tariff fears, each eroding some of gold's traditional safe-haven demand.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is now -0.5% lower to $98.06.
On is spot on with Q2 results and guidance as Swiss footwear brand sees no let up in demand (ONON)
On Holding (ONON) is trading sharply higher today following a stellar Q2 earnings report that showcased a 32% yr/yr increase in net sales to CHF 749.2 mln, comfortably surpassing analysts’ expectations. The Swiss performance sportswear brand also raised its FY25 net sales growth guidance to at least 31% in constant currency, up from its prior forecast of at least 28%, reflecting confidence in sustained demand. Additionally, ONON lifted its gross margin guidance to 60.5–61.0% from 60.0–60.5%, signaling improved profitability driven by premium positioning and operational efficiencies.
The strong results and upbeat outlook underscore ONON’s ability to capitalize on market opportunities, even as competitors like NIKE (NKE) navigate ongoing challenges, propelling the stock’s post-earnings rally.
- ONON’s robust Q2 performance and raised guidance highlight its accelerating market share gains in the highly competitive athletic footwear and apparel market, where it continues to outpace industry giants like NKE, which is grappling with a multi-year turnaround amid sluggish demand and inventory issues. Key drivers of ONON’s success include its three-year strategic plan (2024–2026), which emphasizes global expansion, product innovation, and direct-to-consumer (DTC) growth, with a goal to double net sales by 2026.
- The company’s diversified portfolio of footwear franchises, spanning running, training, tennis, and trail categories, combines premium lifestyle appeal with high-performance functionality, resonating with younger, affluent consumers. Strategic partnerships with high-profile athletes like Iga Swiatek and Zendaya, alongside innovative products like the Cloudmonster and LightSpray technology, have bolstered brand visibility and demand.
- The DTC segment was a standout in Q2, with revenue surging 47% yr/yr to CHF 307.4 mln, now representing 41% of total revenue, up from 36% in 2Q24. This growth was fueled by strong e-commerce performance, driven by enhanced digital marketing, personalized customer experiences, and the expansion of ONON’s owned retail stores, which grew to 45 globally by quarter-end. The introduction of interactive online platforms and loyalty programs further boosted DTC engagement, particularly among Gen Z and millennial consumers seeking premium, performance-driven products.
- Wholesale channel also performed strongly, with revenue up 23% to CHF 441.8 mln, supported by deepened partnerships with key retailers like Foot Locker (DKS) and JD Sports, as well as expanded distribution in high-growth markets like Asia-Pacific and Europe.
- Despite missing EPS expectations with a reported CHF 0.09 per share, the shortfall was entirely attributable to adverse currency fluctuations, particularly the strengthening of the Swiss franc against the U.S. dollar and euro. Excluding these impacts, ONON’s profitability metrics paint a strong picture: adjusted EBITDA soared 50% yr/yr to CHF 136.1 mln, exceeding estimates and reflecting significant operating leverage. Gross margin also expanded to 61.5% from 59.9% in 2Q24, driven by a favorable mix of high-margin DTC sales, reduced promotional activity, and lower freight costs due to optimized supply chain operations.
ONON’s strong momentum across its shoes, apparel, and accessories categories underscores its position as a leading innovator in the performance sportswear market. Recent launches, including the Cloudtilt for lifestyle, Speedboard for tennis, and Cloudventure for trail running, are expected to drive continued growth by appealing to diverse consumer segments. With a fortified DTC channel, expanding global footprint, and a clear strategic roadmap, ONON is well-positioned for sustained outperformance in the quarters ahead.
Sea Limited soars to new 52-wk high after Q2 results; strongest top line growth in 12 quarters
Sea Limited (SE +19%) is trading sharply higher today after reporting its Q2 results this morning. Despite falling short of EPS expectations, the Southeast Asia e-commerce, gaming and financial services giant continues to improve its profitability. EPS soared 364% yr/yr to $0.65. Gross profit of $2.4 bln and net income of $414.2 mln were up 52% and 418% yr/yr, respectively. Revenue increased a healthy 38.2% yr/yr to $5.3 bln, coming in well above analyst expectations. It's also its strongest growth in 12 quarters.
- Starting with its e-commerce segment, Shopee delivered another record breaking quarter following a strong Q1, with sequential growth in gross order volume, gross merchandise volume (GMV) and revenue. Gross orders, GMV, and revenue had yr/yr increases of 29% to $3.3 bln, 28% to $29.8 bln, and 34% to $3.8 bln, respectively. This is a nice acceleration from Q1 growth rates of 20%, 22%, and 30%. E-commerce adjusted EBITDA was $228 mln compared to a $(9) mln loss in the year-ago quarter.
- Its Digital Financial Services saw revenue jump 70% yr/yr to $883 mln. Revenue growth for this segment has been impressive and accelerating in recent quarters, with yr/yr increases of 30% in Q4 and 58% in Q1. Adjusted EBITDA was up 55% yr/yr to $255 mln. Its consumer and SME loans principal outstanding reached $6.9 bln, up over 90% yr/yr. Notably, active users for its consumer and SME loan products exceeded 13 mln for the first time, representing more than 45% yr/yr growth. Encouragingly, its 90-day nonperforming loan ratio remained stable at 1%.
- Now to its Digital Entertainment segment, which saw revenue increase 28% yr/yr to $559 mln. Bookings were also healthy at 23% yr/yr growth to $661 mln. The growth was primarily driven by the increase in its active user base as well as deepened paid user penetration. Specifically, Free Fire continues to be at the core of this segment's performance, with over 100 mln average daily users. Management believes Free Fire has established itself as an "evergreen" franchise.
- While SE does not typically provide guidance, the company is optimistic and more confident for the 2H25. In particular, it expects Shopee's GMV momentum, which grew 25% yr/yr in 1H25, to continue into Q3. Additionally, it raised its FY25 digital entertainment bookings growth to over 30% yr/yr from "double-digit" growth.
Overall, this was an impressive quarter for SE, highlighted by its strongest top-line growth in 12 quarters and improved profitability. Its e-commerce and digital financial services segments showed notable acceleration, which is nice to see despite some macro volatility. Additionally, investors seem pleased with the company's commentary around the 2H25, particularly the raised guidance for digital entertainment bookings growth. On a final note, the stock continues its strong streak of impressive quarterly reports, marking the third consecutive quarter that SE has seen a notable jump following earnings.
Circle shines in earnings debut as USDC growth fuels 53% revenue surge (CRCL)
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) delivered its first earnings report as a public company, following its blockbuster $1.2 bln IPO on June 5, 2025. Since its debut, CRCL’s shares soared as much as 865% above the IPO price of $31, reflecting intense investor enthusiasm for its stablecoin-driven business model, before cooling to a still-impressive 420% gain due to profit-taking. Today, the stock is surging again, propelled by a robust Q2 performance that showcased a 53% yr/yr increase in total revenue and reserve income to $658 mln, surpassing analysts’ estimates, driven by explosive growth in USDC stablecoin circulation and strategic platform expansions.
- CRCL’s revenue is predominantly derived from interest income on short-term Treasury bills backing its USDC stablecoin, a dollar-pegged digital asset designed for stability and transaction efficiency. The 86% yr/yr surge in average USDC circulation to $61.0 bln, reaching $61.3 bln by quarter-end and $65.2 bln by August 10, 2025, directly fueled a 50% increase in reserve income to $634 mln. This growth underscores the scalability of CRCL’s business model, where rising stablecoin adoption amplifies interest-earning reserves, despite a 103-bps decline in the reserve return rate to 4.1%, reflecting shifts in Treasury yield dynamics.
- Despite reporting a net loss of $482 mln, or $4.48 per share, CRCL’s profitability narrative is more nuanced due to $591 mln in non-cash charges tied to its IPO, including $424 mln in stock-based compensation. A clearer measure of operational health, adjusted EBITDA, surged 52% yr/yr to $126 mln, exceeding expectations and highlighting CRCL’s ability to leverage its growing USDC ecosystem. This improvement reflects the company’s inherent operating leverage, where fixed costs are spread over a rapidly expanding transaction volume.
- CRCL’s FY25 guidance projects a 40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for USDC circulation over a multi-year cycle, signaling confidence in sustained demand for its stablecoin. Key drivers include the expanding adoption of USDC for digital payments and settlements, bolstered by the Circle Payments Network (CPN), launched in May 2025, which already has over 100 financial institutions in the pipeline and four active payment corridors.
- Additionally, the introduction of Circle Gateway for cross-chain liquidity and the upcoming Arc blockchain, a Layer-1 network tailored for stablecoin finance, are expected to enhance USDC’s utility and accessibility, driving circulation growth through seamless integration across blockchains and enterprise-grade applications.
- Recent developments further position CRCL to capitalize on blockchain-based transactions, particularly in B2B and cross-border payment use cases. Strategic partnerships with Binance, Corpay, and Fiserv are pivotal: Binance’s expanded adoption of Circle Wallets and USYC for institutional trading enhances USDC’s role in crypto markets; Corpay’s integration pairs its global FX and card network with USDC for 24/7 settlement and compliance; and Fiserv’s collaboration explores embedding USDC infrastructure into its digital banking and payment solutions.
CRCL’s stock is rallying strongly today, propelled by its first post-IPO earnings report, which underscores the rapid expansion of its USDC stablecoin, now at $65.2 bln in circulation, and robust revenue growth. The company’s strategic initiatives, regulatory alignment, and partnerships position it as a leader in the digital finance ecosystem, with significant upside potential despite competitive pressures.
AMC Entertainment higher after Q2 report; global box office recovery the catalyst for upside results
AMC Entertainment (AMC +3.5%) is trading higher today following its Q2 results this morning. This movie exhibition company reported its largest EPS beat in four quarters. Notably, breakeven EPS marks the first non-loss quarter in over five years. AMC also bounced back nicely following a 9% yr/yr decline in revenue last quarter to report its highest revenue growth in six quarters. Revenue soared 35.6% yr/yr to $1.40 bln, which was above expectations.
- Digging into the numbers, AMC's increase in revenue drove a 391.4% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $189.2 mln. With such a sizeable increase, net cash from operating activities surged to a positive $138.4 mln, a stark difference from the $38.5 mln used in operations in the year ago period. As a result, the company significantly narrowed its net loss to $4.7 mln from $32.8 last year.
- The results reflect a combination of a recovering industry-wide box office and AMC's efforts in its "AMC Go Plan". This is most evident in the 25.6% yr/yr increase in movie theater attendance, a sharp acceleration from the 10.1% decline in Q1. Another positive, AMC broke records in nearly every per patron metric. Consolidated revenue per patron was $12.14, topping $12 for the first time. Consolidated food and beverage revenue per guest jumped to $7.85 and total consolidated revenue per patron reached an "unprecedented" $22.26. Despite lower consumer confidence, this tells us its consumer is willing to spend at the theaters.
- What stands out to us is here is that, based on recent performance, management expects to capitalize on the industry's growth momentum, particularly in Q4 and extending deep into FY26. We think investors are pleased to hear AMC's bullish outlook for continued box office momentum a few quarters out.
- Finally, management noted that even before the industry's box office roar in Q2, its AMC Go Plan, which focuses on investments in laser projection, comfortable seating, and expanded offerings, had already driven increase theater attendance. AMC highlighted that its premium auditoriums operate at nearly three times the occupancy of a regular auditorium and command a healthy premium.
Overall, this was a strong report from AMC, particularly with the company breaking even when analysts had expected a loss. Another positive was the surge in top-line growth and adjusted EBITDA. The recovery in the global box office is clearly propelling AMC forward, and we think investors are encouraged by management's bullish commentary, which expects the momentum to extend deep into FY26.
RadNet is looking pretty rad to investors following upside Q2 results (RDNT)
RadNet (RDNT +22%) is looking pretty rad to investors today. Shares of this diagnostic imaging company are surging following its Q2 report this morning. Adjusted EPS nearly doubled yr/yr to $0.31, which was much better than expected. Revenue was also impressive, growing 8.4% yr/yr to $498.2 mln, which was a good bit above analyst expectations. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 16.3% from 15.7% a year ago.
- Both its Imaging Center and Digital Health operating segments performed well in Q2 and they achieved record quarterly results. Its Digital Health segment was the star of the show with segment revs up 30.9% yr/yr. Growth was driven by strong increases in procedural volumes, improved reimbursement from payors, a continuing shift in volumes towards advanced imaging modalities and incremental sales and licenses of workflow software and AI.
- RadNet's focus has been driving more advanced imaging procedures (MRI, CT and PET/CT) and increasing advanced imaging capacity at imaging centers. Within MRI, RadNet posted +6.6% same center growth in Q2, which was partially from capacity created from investments made in MRI software upgrades and operating protocols which enable shorter scan times.
- Another bright spot was CT, as RadNet's programs have expanded on both coasts to offer more complex procedures, such as Cardiac CT Angiography, which is often enhanced with AI-assisted analytics. Within PET/CT, RadNet's fastest growing modality with 22.4% yr/yr growth, emphasis has been on newer diagnostic and screening offerings for prostate cancer, Alzheimer's disease and dementia and new procedures with tumor-specific radioactive tracers.
- A headwind the industry has been facing is a shortage of technologist staffing. However, RadNet says its advanced imaging offerings, particularly MRI, has been helped by the implementation of Digital Health's TechLive, its remote screening technology recently cleared by the FDA. TechLive enables remote control of advanced imaging equipment to expand hours of operation which otherwise would have been closed.
- In terms of its footprint, RadNet is already the largest provider of freestanding, fixed-site outpatient diagnostic imaging in the US, with more than 400 centers. However, it has been constructing new imaging centers to handle high demand and patient backlogs in many of its local markets. A new facility was opened during Q2 in New Jersey, and nine additional de novo facility openings are projected for the remainder of 2025.
Overall, this was an impressive quarter for RadNet, especially the growth in EPS and the top line. The industry is really moving in RadNet's direction as payors are pushing patients to use lower cost freestanding centers. Hospitals typically charge insurance companies 200-500% more than what RadNet charges. We also think its remote screening technology, TechLive, will be key in its attempt to counter industry-wide challenges like labor shortages and rising costs. A possible concern is Medicaid cuts. However, investors like what they see with RadNet's Q2 report overall.
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