John:
While the disposition of used phones is an issue, to my knowledge SK Telecom (for example) does not try to resell used handsets. The consumer may have signed a year+ contract to obtain a subsidized phone, and technically the carrier can attempt to enforce performance, but most often this is not cost effective (or intelligent public relations).
Some used phones probably do change hands and remain in service, but these transactions are generally not brokered by the service provider. So, I think you are missing the points which are (a) churn, in and of itself, does not provide reliable insight into handset sales, (b) in the absence of new subscribers, higher churn would eventually result in a burn-down of the subscriber base--which is deadly a deadly outcome for a service provider, (c) the likely response to increased churn is increased promotional activity by the carrier to attract new subscribers (and drive gross additions) and (d) the carrier has many tools, including lowering tariffs and handset subsidization, to attract subscribers.
My argument therefore remains that increased churn will prompt increased marketing efforts by carriers to attract new subscribers. These new subscribers almost always get new equipment, which is what is important to Samsung, LG Electronics and Qualcomm.
Best Regards,
Gregg |
