I guess you missed the adjustments to the jobs report. And the significance of the adjustments. Those adjustments were because the companies who tend to file late, small and mid-sized businesses, are also the most sensitive to bobbles in the economy. The surveys from the larger companies were tracking with the economic models, hence the forecasts when released. As the later reports trickled in, from smaller companies mind you, the results were very different, because smaller companies see the changes first. So the results got adjusted. This often happens when there is some fundamental shift in the economy. Up or down. Now sometimes that shift is transitory and never propagates into the wider economy to a significant extent. But shifts of this magnitude rarely are. And remember, we still don't have a complete picture. but it sure looks like the job market took a major shotgun blast to the gut on a timescale that is coincident with the chaos injected by on again, off again tariffs. Tariffs alone are bad enough, but now we have them, now we don't is much, much worse. Small businesses can't afford that for long.
The BLS adjustments always happen. Normally, the adjustments are small and the third one, the one with the most accurate numbers, is usually only slightly different than the first. When they aren't, you should pay attention if you want to live up to your namesake. |
