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re <<Whatever you do, NEVER compare SHCOMP to NASDAQ for any significant period, i. e., 10 years or longer. And to say China shares will track gold is a blunder.>>
just a guess, that a blunder is when any premise is based on what is-is this day, whilst a simple general equities crash can dispense a Warren-Buffett-beating outcome for all 42-years in one fell swipe, and
simpler devaluations can send nation-states back to 3rd-world-dom in just a tanking.
compiled more for my benefit than yours, but you might appreciate the take of the sense, to recalibrate, perhaps, and do something, maybe, even if simply loading the same questions into own favorite AI LLM or Agent and see if better takes emerge.
Some videos for <<Pay Attention>>
who knows, but likely know more than I on subject
bang-on 15 years running
bang-on, 40 years running
a normally rah-rah neocon military hobbist site, with much copium in comments section :0)
In any case, a study's extract comprised of layered questions:
(1) Am I imagining or has gold and China shares been tracking each other ?
(2) Can you please do chart for the last 24-months period, covering China (Shanghai) equity index and Gold.
(3) Can you please do chart covering (1) an index (even weight) comprised of selected China / HKG shares HK-domiciled are BYD 1211.hk, Hua Hong 1347.hk, Shanghai Fudan 1385.hk, Wuxi Biologics 2269.hk, concord Healthcare 2453.hk, GLD 2840.hk, Zijin Mining 2899.hk, Jiangxi Copper 0358.hk, CATL 3750.hk, HKEX 0388.hk, Tencent 0700.hk, CNOOC 0883.hk, China Mobile 0941.hk, SMIC 0981.hk, Alibaba 9988.hk, on the one hand, and (2) an index (even weight) comprised of NY-domiciled shares are AEM, BHP, CCJ, DRD, FNV, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, PAAS, RIO, SA, SBSW, SIL, SLV.
(4) Can you please overlay the chart with same for S&P500, for the 24-months period.
(5) What about overlaying graph with QQQ also for the 24-months, and provide correlations.
(6) How about subtracting out the effects of the Magnificent 7 from the S&P500 and the QQQ, for the 24-months period.
(7) Implications / conclusions / suspicions w/r to the correlations ?
(8) Together with my macro take going out to 2042 Demographic-flip, on the other side of 2032 Darkest Interregnum, after crossing the 2026 TeoTwawKi, if correct (is the macro possibly correct?), how might the correlations change, take a best-guess.
(9) How best to cross over to the other side from now to beyond 2042?
etc etc
(10) What is the probability of USA slipping into chaos / civil distress post 2042? Attached is earlier study done with DeepSeek
blah blah blah
(11) A book that ought to be read by all, including Manus, that which shows Fiat Money Inflation in France led into the French Revolution where all the people at the time were domestic / local French. 2042 Demographic-flip USA would be slightly more chaotic, a premise.
(12) In such an event, even if an inkling of such, during the lead-up, gold up, RMB and domestically RMB-dividend flow equities up, and China global-facing tech shares all up, even as USA shares up due to USD down ?
(13) Grim. Seriously grim. In the duration, what, if anything, happens to the USA-market dependent players such as Toyota, BMW, Germany, Japan, related currencies Euro, Yen, debt piles, and oh, the CHF and the price of Patek Philippe REF. 7340/1R rose gold green dial edition, for good purchasing-power measures :0)
(14) Can you summarize in narrative? Tia
(15) In such a hard-shift over the period of 2025 - 2042, the reset of purchasing powers essentially knocks a bunch of economies into 3rd world-do, such that many shall fall, and / or fall-apart, so the a few might rise, and rise a lot, along with domains that travel the journey with the winners ? BRICS+, BRI-domains, yes or no?
(16) Narrative of summary?
(17) What be the latest Toyota, BMW, Mercedes result announcements, and CEO forward guidances that might or not track above narrative? Given the guidance, and assume extended to 2042, what happens to EU unemployment, Japanese Yen value (in gold terms and USD terms) ?
(18) What might happen to the values (pricing) of the constituent shares of the Magnificent 7 going forward ?
blah blah blah
(19) summary narrative?
(20) So, BYD vs TSLA, SMIC against TSMC, Xiaomi opposite AAPL, etc etc ... I need to throw up. Thank you, we are done speculating, for now.
blah blah blah
(21) J-36, J-50, MD-21, etc etc against F-22, F-35, and (?) F-47 ? How might the military power shift by 'purchasing-pwer' / fight-power ?
(22) Please do investment / portfolio deployment analysis for long term buy and hold on The shares held be as below (enter symbols here finance.yahoo.com ) HK-domiciled are BYD 1211.hk, Hua Hong 1347.hk, Shanghai Fudan 1385.hk, Wuxi Biologics 2269.hk, concord Healthcare 2453.hk, GLD 2840.hk, Zijin Mining 2899.hk, Jiangxi Copper 0358.hk, CATL 3750.hk, HKEX 0388.hk, Tencent 0700.hk, CNOOC 0883.hk, China Mobile 0941.hk, SMIC 0981.hk, Alibaba 9988.hk London domiciled is GBS.L (GLD but listed in London) NY-domiciled shares are AEM, BHP, CCJ, DRD, FNV, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, PAAS, RIO, SA, SBSW, SIL, SLV, TTWO (Jack's buy and hold until end-2026), VALE, XOM Cryptos are coingecko.com BTC, ETH, PAXG, trading amongst the three to result in more PAXG
(23) Manus, below are questions I asked DeepSeek that helped me to come up with the above portfolio, and I shall also attach the PDF file of DeepSeek answers. Would appreciate your critique if any.
(24) Am wondering about the buy-case for Europe, that which is burdened with issues of de-energy, de-industrialization, de-technology wherewithal, expanding societal burden, and war burden?
(25) etc etc
(26) Above are PDF files of my dialogue with DeepSeek. Following on, a series of questions to you, (1) Question, as of today, 2025 - 08 -22, are the kindling of the USA equity market crash in place, and if so, will the USA equity market crash 2025 Sept / Oct ? or more likely later crash, say 2026 Q1 / Q2 ? What about not-at-all ? What is the most likely play-out of the script ?
(27) What are the historical precedents for a market crash in a high-inflation environment?
(28) What happens to gold / GLD and gold mining (GDX / GDXJ) valuation during and through the envisioned crash should it happen ?
(29) Re <<Historical precedents (gold in 2008 vs. 2020 crashes)>> - how different? and (2) Re <<How miners' debt levels impact their crisis response>> - which of my gold mining shares are at risk (I hold AEM, B, BTG, DRD, FNV, GDX, GDXJ, LUG, NEM, OR, PAAS, SA, and WPM)
(30) Please simulate how each position might move +/- if gold swings ±$250?
(31) In the coming general USA equity market crash will gold and gold mining behave closer to 2008 case and how? the macro would anticipate an almost ('almost') inevitable bail out? what about a bail in?
(32) In such a crash, how might HK-listed China shares behave, specifically BYD 1211.hk, Hua Hong 1347.hk, Shanghai Fudan 1385.hk, Wuxi Biologics 2269.hk, concord Healthcare 2453.hk, GLD 2840.hk, Zijin Mining 2899.hk, Jiangxi Copper 0358.hk, CATL 3750.hk, HKEX 0388.hk, Tencent 0700.hk, CNOOC 0883.hk, China Mobile 0941.hk, SMIC 0981.hk, Alibaba 9988.hk
(33) How might BTC and ETH behave during and through such a crash, and will USDT run into difficulties ?
(34) So, better to park the crypto-portion of the capital in PAXG rather than in USDT ?
(35) Any difference, as far as you are concerned, between USDT vs USDC ?
(36) How might USD behave into, during, and through such a crash?
(37) What if there is no crash before end-2025? or severely delayed crash, well into 2026 ? What might cause such play-out?
(38) How bad for the overall equities market in % terms ?
(39) Gold is now at ~3,300. During the worst part of either a drip-drip-drip downturn of the general equity market or a crash due to whatever, how low might gold go?
(40) How temporary is ‘temporary’ in the case of sharp gold drop which presumably should attract sovereign and experienced hedge funds to swoop in now that all are still ‘experienced’ in 2008 / 2020 ?
(41) (Sigh) okay, I guess am ready
(42) Attached is my order of battle / asset deployment at the moment. Can you understand it?
(43) Thank you manus and good night. We shall keep examining the macro going forward.
(44) Structured summary please, and output to PDF file
