I just have difficulty seeing how GOOG stock can be at an all time high, while its main product (Google.com) is so obviously threatened to its core by GPT.
I myself use Google significantly less than I used to, and my Google use will only continue to decrease I think, as GPT improves further and the "Google habit" dies off further.
It will take time for Google use to die off, but give it five or ten years or so, and even the slowest adopters will have moved to GPT.
Going forward, I see little reason for Google to exist. (Five years ago, I would have imagined such a scenario very unlikely; if someone told me in 2020 that a new invention would render Google possibly obsolete, I would 1) have great difficulty believing that it was true, and 2), if it were nonetheless true, I would have great difficulty believing that GOOG share price would be 150 % higher five years later.)
That said, the earnings don't lie (hopefully). Maybe the cash cow will continue to throw of monies for many years to come, even when the search business start showing clear signs of declining (to my mind, those signs have already appeared). But it feels like a ticking time-bomb to me. I don't own GOOG anymore and don't plan to do so for the unforeseeable future, unless the company makes some great new product/discovery. |
