<..First let me say that my background is ATM and specifically ATM CPE. I've been living this technology for years and I am and continue to be a big believer. However as much as it pains me to say this, "multimedia" on IP networks is real and will have an impact on the uptake of ATM to the premise and ATM may (big MAY) be relegated to the core...>
I respect your focus on and knowledge of the tech (if not your unprovoked insulting and aggressive posting approach).
Sure, there are those who have been questioning widespread ATM to the desktop for quite awhile (what exactly do YOU do with CPE ATM?). But CO/enterprise ATM is happening (as you likely wel know), and as enterprise T1/E1 continues to explode, look for YURI to be there.
Fwiw, "rumors" are that RBOCs and CLECs are testing YURI products, and there is a likelihood of contracts in Q1 to early Q2. And can you feel the squeeze potential?
(fwiw, I averaged-in the balance of my position today at 20 1/4 and 3/8. I saw a lot of SOES activity, and some bigger pieces get shaken out. I also saw some >10K pieces on up volume later in the day. We may well test 19, but I would consider adding (barring hearing anything about imminent telco business NO LONGER being likely) if it did break 19. BTW, the 3 analysts who follow YURI are all VERY bullish with strong buys.
<..It appears that your arguing the opposite..that bandwidth at the core will be developed....for no apparent reason...>
C'mon Gary, you're in the business (presumably at Cisco). How could you interpret that from my statement? Which way does current flow? Of COURSE end use demand drives the whole buildout.
<..is being infringed upon by other technologies specifically IP which also delievers QoS properities. AND remember IP is the access technology being used for ISP access today. Therefore there is a significant push and a significant desire by both users and ISP's to get more use out of this access vis a vis using it for voice and video as well...>
No arguments that IP is the protocol of the (near term) future. However oice circuits will NOT disappear into frame relay / VoIP any time soon. Even IP evangelists like Sidgmore acknowledge this.
That having been said, you must also be WELL aware of the running of ATM over IP (eg., the MPOA standard)....
<..MSFT, SUN, HP, CSCO, and other large organizations see an IP world...at least on the network edge. US West, Qwest, Williams, and other carriers also seem to be agreeing by deploying large IP nets...>
Not omitting WCOM or ATHM, I have heard many of these guys speak - recently. Believe me, at the CEO/CTO level, they ALL acknowledge the need of integration of TOLL quality voice and video in addition to data, as well as some type of prioritization and QoS provisioning to meet these growing kinds of needs.
also see nelsonpub.com for a number of important arguments for ATM in the T1/E1 WAN. And the convergence of the LAN and the WAN is a LIVELY tech conference topic these days.
And while ATM pioneer FORE has had trouble getting reliable 25Mbps ATM, YURI recently passed Sprint's stringent carrier class certification at it's T1/E1 speeds. No packet conversion drops.
Bandwidth to the edge is the mantra. ATM will continue to be there to handle voice and video and provision priority and QoS.
<..Perhaps it may be at this very moment, but RSVP, and WFQ in IP are claiming to do the same...>
WFQ? Your Cisco roots are showing <g>.
McQuillan's "PFQ" (ie., MMCN, which I trading out of from the IPO in the upper 20s and got back into in the teens) is definitely an interesting way to address the FR/ATM speed differential. But ATM is currently the far more established protocol. And (again) as applications continue their increasing prioritization and QoS demands, the ATM edge (facilitated by standards such as MPOA) will move onward and outward.
Could YURI be out of business in say, 4 years? Certainly a possibility, but IMO that would be as speculative as, though far less likely than, it's being taken out at 80+ within that same time frame.
In the meantime, I'm looking for over 30 (~50% gain) by summer. |
