September Update

SUNDAY, AUGUST 24, 2025 BY: MARTIN ARMSTRONG

COMMENT: Looks like the latest pvt blog Socrates forecast is wrong. On Friday, the US share market was up BIG when socrates was calling for a crash. Powell says fed will likely cut rates in mid September, so with that anticipation, no way the market is going down into that. Nvdia earning this week too. Don’t understand the bearish sentiment. DS

REPLY: Whenever we make an good temporary high, there has to be that final spike up that sucks in everyone to one side. The reasons markets will then decline are that you run out of buying power. Everyone who ever thought of buying has now bought. When some start to take profits, the selling begins, and this forces the later comers to sell their newly prized purchases. Summer rallies are just seasonal events, just as October is notorious for crashes.

While the market appears to be making its final exhaustive move up, our cyclical-infused stochastic shows the RED has just exceeded the YELLOW, also warning that a potential decline is starting to build. The target week has not changed - the first week of September. If the Dow can reach the technical target of 47221, then it becomes more likely for a sharp short-term decline.

When we look at the Monthly Array, it still shows August as the key target with September as a singleton, yet with high volatility. I would suspect this implies that either the intraday high will be in August or the highest monthly closing will be in August. As I have just put out the interest rate/war dilemma, it appears that volatility will start to rise from September, especially going into March of 2026, where we have a Panic Cycle. Our War Index also has a Panic Cycle in March of 2026, whereas the Euro has a Panic Cycle in February.