Salim and others.
I'm still having trouble (others too ?) understanding how you play the rolls, Salim. Perhaps you could explain your thinking on where the turning points were for your trades of NCSP.
I'm looking at the NSCP chart on Investools.com and see two different "wavelenths" of rolls, one with a short term of the order of a week or so, and this is superimposed on a longer term roll with a 4-5 month cycle. So, Salim, to better understand how you've played this "roller", some questions for you ...
1. You apparently try to play the weekly cycles as you said you've played it several times this year. How do you pick the top and the bottoms for the sell / buys, especially when they are superimposed on the 4-5 month cycles which cause very steep slopes at times.
2. Do you wait until there is a clear signal that the stock has changed direction? If so, how do you detect that change ?
3. Do you take into consideration the high and low daily trading ranges, or do you just work with the closing prices ? How exactly do you set your buy and sell limits ?
4. Do you take any note of the 4-5 month cycles ? If you've played this several times already this year, it wasn't clear there even WAS a 4-5 month cycle until maybe Sept when the 2nd cycle completed. Hindsight is alway 20-20, and you apparently did it with foresight.
5. Do you use any technical analysis to assist in picking tops and bottoms ? In this case, the stock has had little trading history, and the only support/resistance levels I can see would be about 80, 50 and 35. I wouldn't consider the weekly oscillations to establish effective support/resistance levels.
TO ALL
I also think it would be useful if those of you that have played rollers successfully a couple of times were to tell the rest of us your answers to the above questions as well, thus providing some additional examples. Maybe I'm just trying too hard to define a set of clear cut rules, and I ought to do more "seat of the pants" thinking. However, I believe Wade Cook has some fairly simple and explicit rules for doing this. I'm sure its possible as others are successful at "roll playing".
Walter
Always ready to learn ... |
