The Fed Circuit’s opinion is 127 pages long, with probably hundreds of case cites. The people preparing the briefs not only need to read each one of those cases in full—most of which are themselves dozens of pages long, and maybe over a hundred—they also have to exhaustively research the body of law surrounding each one of those cases. So, many thousands of pages of case law have to be gathered, reviewed, and understood, along with thousands of pages in the factual record. The appellate lawyers who handled the Federal Circuit briefing will already have done much of this work, but the Fed Circuit’s decision will undoubtedly have thrown twists into the analysis that neither side anticipated, and all if that has to be exhaustively scrutinized
After the factual and legal research is done, the appellate lawyers have to draft their supreme court briefs. It can be a brutal mental process, and these briefs may be the pinnacle of these lawyers careers. The drafts will need to be reviewed and edited by likely dozens of people in their client group. The resulting briefs will be read by not just the SC justices, but by dozens of their law clerks and probably thousands of lawyers and law professors around the country. At this level, you can’t just slap something out and call it good. These are career defining briefs that will cause billions of dollars to flow one way or another.
After the briefs are filed, oral argument is usually scheduled several months out. There’s a whole industry of Supreme Court consultants in DC that help lawyers prepare for oral argument before the SC. The consultants have to read all the briefs and the case law and the factual record like the justices and their clerks will. They then hold moot arguments, where the consultants question the lawyers as they think the SC justices would. The process takes weeks.
I would expect a decision by the SC sometime in early 2026. This SC has been using its shadow docket to dump quick decisions without much explanation, which is a controversial change. But given the economic magnitude of these tariffs, I think it’s almost certain the court will allow full merits briefing.
FWIW, I’ve had appeals in state court and in federal court that take a couple years before a decision is issued. Getting a decision in this case by early 2026 is fast for this kind of work. |
