Are the Bears Wrong About the Looming Glut in Oil?
By Irina Slav - Sep 03, 2025, 6:00 PM CDT
Despite widespread assumptions among oil traders and analysts, physical oil market data, particularly OECD crude oil inventories, does not currently support the narrative of an imminent massive oil glut.
Key indicators such as OECD and US crude oil inventories, and even Chinese oil product exports, suggest healthier demand and a less oversupplied market than often portrayed.
Organizations like Standard Chartered and Oxford Energy are challenging the dominant "doomsaying" trend in oil price forecasting by focusing on physical market realities that contradict the glut predictions.
OECD Petroleum inventories are 122 million barrels below normal for this time of year, so there is almost no chance of a "glut" oil in the physical market by the end of this year. BTW lower fuel prices does increase demand.
Read more: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Are-the-Bears-Wrong-About-the-Looming-Glut-in-Oil.html
MY TAKE: The Wall Street Gang wants the Fed to lower interest rates. They want that so bad, that they will "talk down" oil prices for as long as they can because high oil-based fuel prices increase inflation, giving Powell an excuse not to lower interest rates. Plus, IEA always understates demand for oil-based products. Plus, Saudi Arabia will not allow Brent to go into the $50s.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group |
