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Strategies & Market Trends : Bear!
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To: Sean Collett who wrote (257)9/5/2025 9:17:36 AM
From: Sean Collett3 Recommendations

Recommended By
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JohnyP
sjemmeri

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Hi all,

I feel my inner bear trying to come out of hibernation. There is just some pure silliness taking place. Shiller P/E is now 39.05 and up from the 38.51 I posted August 11th and it's now higher than the COVID high. It has not been this high since the dot com.

FINRA reports margin usage is through highs as well. If we compare debt balances to ave SPY ETF price well.....


I closed my AEO position yesterday after it went up +50% in a short holding period. The rest of my port is also looking pretty well. I was fully invested and will now start trimming back. Since I am not a buy and hold investor, I feel comfortable missing some pop's because there will always be opportunity. This froth is just getting to be too thick for me now to ignore.

Money has just become meaningless it seems. I still think about the UFC deal that Paramount made. $7.7B for this.

Retail loading on margin to buy equities because they can only go up. Bitcoin in your 401K, can't buy groceries at the store with it BUT you can load up on bitcoin ETF's and the value prop is "the $ is trash and US has too much debt, buy Bitcoin". Silly. Just silly.

With the margin use where it is, it's easy to see where covering comes into play. Selling begets more selling. A rapid move could easily snowball from these heights and at this point a catalyst could be anything.

Yield on the S&P 500 is 3.31% using a reported P/E of 30.16, while the 10Y sits above 4%. What did Graham say?

Not a call to go shorting/putting, but a call to manage your risk. Cash is a strategy too. Sep-Oct are historically interesting months.

Ol' Joe has seen his shoeshine!

Happy investing,
Sean
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