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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 297.50-2.6%Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (95031)9/10/2025 6:10:57 PM
From: Return to Sender2 Recommendations

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Market Snapshot

Dow45490.92-220.42(-0.48%)
Nasdaq21886.06+6.57(0.03%)
SP 5006532.04+19.43(0.30%)
10-yr Note



NYSEAdv 1409 Dec 1308 Vol 1.11 bln
NasdaqAdv 2112 Dec 2465 Vol 9.15 bln


Industry Watch
Strong: Information Technology, Energy, Industrials, Utilities, Materials

Weak: Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials


Moving the Market
Oracle (ORCL) trades sharply higher after reporting massive backlog/RPO growth

Favorable August PPI report tempers inflation worries, bolsters expectations of 75-basis points worth of rate cuts by year's end


Steady retreat from Oracle-led record highs
10-Sep-25 16:35 ET

Dow -220.42 at 45490.92, Nasdaq +6.57 at 21886.06, S&P +19.43 at 6532.04
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market's early strength, fueled by Oracle's (ORCL 328.33, +86.82, +35.95%) massive RPO update and an encouraging August PPI print, quickly lifted the S&P 500 (+0.3%) and Nasdaq Composite (flat) to fresh record highs. However, momentum faded as the session wore on, with investors showing reluctance to extend gains, leaving the major averages to close well below their early peaks.

The S&P 500 set an all-time high level of 6,555.97 this morning and captured a record closing high of 6,532.04. The Nasdaq Composite set an all-time high of 22,000.97 around the same time and eked out a record closing high of 21,886.06. The DJIA (-0.5%) never breached its flatline, highlighting pockets of weakness in today's market.

Oracle's extraordinary upwards move was the main driver of action today. Investors were enthused by the company's remaining performance obligations (RPO), which skyrocketed to $455 billion, up 359% year-over-year, as the company has locked in substantial cloud contracts among major AI players.

Semiconductor names benefitted from increased optimism around AI growth potential, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index closing with a 2.4% gain. NVIDIA (NVDA 177.33, +6.57, +3.85%) and Broadcom (AVGO 369.57, +32.90, +9.77%) were among some of the market's largest names that benefited from Oracle's move and contributed to gains at the index level.

The broader technology sector finished with a 1.8% gain, tying the energy sector (+1.8%) as the best-performing among the eleven S&P 500 sectors.

Not all mega-cap tech names found themselves on the right side of today's action. Amazon (AMZN 230.33, -7.91, -3.32%), Apple (AAPL 226.79, -7.56, -3.23%), and Meta Platforms (META 751.98, -13.72, -1.79%) all incurred notable losses. Oracle's arrival as an even larger player than previously thought within the AI realm could reflect some reallocation of capital away from some of the "magnificent seven" names that have garnered an outsized share of the market's attention.

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished flat for the day as a result.

Sector strength was also an almost even split, with six S&P 500 sectors trading lower. The consumer discretionary (-1.6%), consumer staples (-1.1%), health care (-0.9%), and communication services (-0.9%) sectors closed with the widest losses, while the financials (-0.3%) and real estate (-0.1%) sectors faced more modest retreats.

On the monetary policy front, a deflationary reading of the August PPI (-0.1%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) and Core PPI (-0.1%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) helped equities surge out of the gate. Rate cut expectations through the end of the year changed very little, which is a sign of strength, as the market is currently expecting 75-basis points of rate cuts before year's end.

While the market rallied around today's earnings and economic data, a steady retreat from session highs reflects a hesitancy to push further into record territory, as investors balance AI-driven growth with historically high valuations.

The market's next test will be tomorrow's August CPI report, which, in conjunction with the weekly jobless claims data, will put October and December rate cut expectations in focus.

U.S. Treasuries climbed on Wednesday after overcoming some early softness with help from the August PPI report and a strong $39 billion 10-year note reopening. The 2-year note yield settled down three basis points to 3.53%, and the 10-year note yield settled down four basis points to 4.03%.

  • Nasdaq Composite: +13.3% YTD
  • S&P 500: +11.1% YTD
  • DJIA: +6.9% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +6.6% YTD
  • S&P Mid Cap 400: +4.7% YTD
Reviewing today's data:

  • Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index 9.2%; Prior -1.2%
  • August PPI -0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.7% from 0.9%, August Core PPI -0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.7% from 0.9%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that it will ease the market's angst about pass-through effects for consumers, especially with the index for final demand services sliding 0.2% month-over-month. The added takeaway is that this report will keep the market locked on its view that there will be at least 75 basis points of rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year.
  • July Wholesale Inventories 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior 0.2%

Klarna Group plc IPO
10-Sep-25 15:25 ET

Dow -269.40 at 45441.94, Nasdaq -50.49 at 21829.00, S&P +6.62 at 6519.23
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%), and DJIA (-0.6%) trade at session lows as the market enters the final half hour of trading.

This morning's momentum around Oracle's (ORCL 325.22, +83.71, +34.66%) earnings and the August PPI has largely run its course, with the major averages now fighting to close with a gain.

Klarna Group plc's (KLAR 45.56, +5.56, +13.89%) IPO has been a relative bright spot amid an increasingly sluggish afternoon, with the stock opening at $52 after pricing its IPO at $40 per share.

Mega-caps face modest retreat as major averages defend earlier gains
10-Sep-25 15:05 ET

Dow -221.94 at 45489.40, Nasdaq -15.88 at 21863.61, S&P +13.52 at 6526.13
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.2%) still holds a modest gain, while the Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) has slipped below its baseline after setting a new record high this morning.

Several of the market's largest tech names propelled the market to record highs this morning, but the rally was not shared across all the mega-caps. Widening losses in Amazon (AMZN 230.14, -8.10, -3.40%), Apple (AAPL 226.80, -7.54, -3.22%), and Meta Platforms (META 755.76, -9.94, -1.30%) have had a noticeable effect on the major averages and now seat the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (-0.1%) with a modest loss.

For what it is worth, Oracle (ORCL 326.30, +84.78, +35.11%) is also off earlier highs that saw its gain buoy past 40%. The Wall Street Journal reported that Oracle and OpenAI have signed a $300 billion five-year contract.

S&P 500 leads gains as nuclear and industrial stocks surge; Trade Desk slumps on downgrade
10-Sep-25 14:30 ET

Dow -228.15 at 45483.19, Nasdaq -5.59 at 21873.90, S&P +14.26 at 6526.87
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.22%) is now the only major average in the green on Wednesday, up about 14 points.

Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Constellation Energy (CEG 322.33, +21.51, +7.15%), GE Vernova (GEV 637.82, +32.12, +5.30%), and Eaton (ETN 360.38, +12.15, +3.49%) dot the top of the standings. CEG rallies as news of a potential $10 bln revival of the Indian Point nuclear plant boosts optimism for U.S. nuclear power and benefits the country's largest nuclear operator, GEV is higher as Citigroup analysts highlighted long-term tailwinds for nuclear energy from rising electricity demand, geopolitical concerns, and new technologies, which could boost both existing plants and new builds, while Mizuho analysts whispered of strong August construction activity, boosting demand for the electrical and industrial products ETN supplies.

Meanwhile, The Trade Desk (TTD 46.74, -5.66, -10.80%) is one of today's top laggards after Morgan Stanley lowered their recommendation on the stock to Equal Weight on CTV headwinds, execution risks.

Gold edges higher as Fed rate cut bets reach 92% and dollar steadies
10-Sep-25 14:00 ET

Dow -272.13 at 45439.21, Nasdaq +25.77 at 21905.26, S&P +18.38 at 6530.99
[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.12%) is in second place on Wednesday afternoon, up about 25 points.

Gold futures settled $4.30 higher (+0.1%) at $3,686.50/oz, on renewed expectations for a Fed rate cut and softer economic signals that weakened the U.S. dollar and bond yields. Reports suggest markets are now pricing in a September cut with odds near 92% as investors await U.S. inflation data and digest cooling job growth. Lower rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, keeping momentum positive.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is flat at $97.78.



Chewy plummets as mostly in-line Q2 results, modest guidance revision disappoints (CHWY)

Chewy (CHWY) reported solid but mostly in-line Q2 results, with modest revenue growth and margin expansion. Despite beating internal guidance, the lack of a stronger upside surprise has led to a sharp selloff as investors had hoped for a more pronounced beat-and-raise.

  • Net sales rose 8.6% yr/yr to $3.10 bln, exceeding the high end of management’s guidance.
  • Autoship customer sales grew 15% yr/yr and now account for 83% of total net sales.
  • Active customers increased 4.5% yr/yr to 20.9 mln, with net sales per active customer (NSPAC) up 4.6% to $591.
  • Gross margin expanded 90 bps yr/yr to 30.4%, helped by a favorable mix shift to premium products and growth in sponsored ads.
  • Adjusted EBITDA rose 26.5% yr/yr to $183.3 mln, with margin expanding 80 bps to 5.9%.
  • Free cash flow was $106 mln; the company repurchased $125 mln in stock during the quarter.
  • FY25 revenue guidance was raised slightly to $12.5–$12.6 bln (+7–8% yr/yr), with no change to EBITDA margin or EPS guidance.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

CHWY delivered a fundamentally sound Q2, with continued strength in Autoship and improvements in both gross and EBITDA margins. However, investors were clearly looking for more. The stock’s negative reaction reflects disappointment over modest guidance revisions and ongoing cost pressures that are slowing margin momentum. While management sees these as transitory and expects better leverage in the back half of the year, the quarter didn’t provide the breakout upside needed to re-energize the bull case. Execution remains solid, but stronger acceleration will be needed to turn sentiment in a competitive and cost-sensitive environment.

Synopsys Q3 Results Disappoint as IP Revenue Slumps, China Headwinds Persist (SNPS)

Synopsys (SNPS -35%) is under heavy pressure after posting Q3 (Jul) revenue of $1.74 bln (+14% yr/yr) and EPS of $3.39. With the Ansys acquisition just closed and guidance previously withdrawn, expectations were cloudy heading into results.

  • Design IP revenue fell 8% yr/yr to $428 mln, hurt by U.S. export restrictions in China, issues at a major foundry customer, and internal resource missteps.
  • Design Automation revenue rose 23% yr/yr to $1.31 bln, reflecting resilient EDA demand and Ansys' contribution.
  • Management highlighted strong AI-driven infrastructure/R&D spend, but end markets like industrial and auto remain subdued.
  • Synopsys announced a 10% workforce reduction, reinstated FY25 guidance, and issued Q4 outlook.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight

This was a tough quarter for SNPS, with the IP segment likely facing a multi-quarter recovery rather than just a one-off Q3 disruption. Management cautioned that FY25 will be a "transitional and muted" year for IP as it looks forward to FY26. While AI-driven tailwinds in design automation and Ansys' contribution help cushion the blow, the uncertainty around China and the company's largest IP customers will remain a key overhang in the near term. Until visibility improves, investors may stay cautious despite the longer-term growth drivers in place.

Oracle: AI-Fueled Bookings Explosion Trumps Lukewarm Q1, Sends Stock Soaring (ORCL)

Oracle shares are surging +41% despite a relatively underwhelming start to FY26. Q1 (Aug) EPS and revenue came in slightly below expectations, and Q2 (Nov) guidance was merely in-line. However, the real story is not near-term execution — it's bookings.

  • Revenue grew 12.2% yr/yr — Oracle's strongest growth in nine quarters — but that headline was overshadowed by explosive demand for its AI infrastructure.
  • The company described its start to FY26 as "amazing," citing major cloud contracts with OpenAI, xAI, Meta, NVIDIA, AMD, and others.
  • Remaining performance obligations (RPO) skyrocketed to $455 bln, up 359% yr/yr and up massively from $138 bln at the end of Q4 (May). Cloud RPO alone grew nearly 500%, building on 83% growth last year.
  • Oracle now expects FY26 capex to hit $35 bln, with most of it going into revenue-generating equipment for new data centers.
Besides RPO growth, what also really jolted investors was Oracle's long-term OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) guidance, backed by already-booked RPO: FY26: $18 bln FY27: $32 bln FY28: $73 bln FY29: $114 bln FY30: $144 bln. Oracle also anticipates RPO will soon top $0.5 trillion, as more multi-billion-dollar customers come online.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
The quarter itself may have been lackluster, but the real story here is bookings — and Oracle just posted one of the most stunning RPO growth metrics we've ever seen. The five-year OCI roadmap shows rare confidence, backed by real contracts, not speculation. While valuation will undoubtedly expand from here, it's clear Oracle is fast becoming a foundational player in AI inferencing, where enterprise-grade data meets cutting-edge compute. For long-term investors, this is no longer your grandfather's Oracle.

Rubrik reports robust ARR and profitability growth despite “sell-the-news” reaction RBRK)

Rubrik (RBRK) delivered strong upside for Q2 FY26 and raised full-year guidance. However, shares are pulling back today in a “sell-the-news” reaction after a 14% rally since last Friday.

  • Subscription Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) rose 36% yr/yr to $1.25 bln, slightly below the prior quarter’s 38%, but still strong.
  • Net new subscription ARR was $71 mln, driven by robust new customer acquisition and recurring expansion from existing accounts.
  • The number of customers with $100,000+ in subscription ARR grew 27% yr/yr to 2,505, reflecting increased enterprise adoption.
  • Subscription ARR contribution margin improved significantly to +9.4% from -8.2% a year ago.
  • Key margin drivers included operating leverage, cost efficiencies, a one-time hosting credit, and debt refinancing.
  • Non-GAAP EPS improved to $(0.03) from $(0.40) in the year-ago period, approaching breakeven.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

RBRK delivered solid Q2 results with strength across core metrics and a notable margin turnaround. Still, the stock is selling off after a big run-up, which suggests investors may have priced in much of the good news. While ARR growth and profitability trends are moving in the right direction, the quarter doesn’t quite erase broader concerns. RBRK remains in the early innings of proving it can scale efficiently over time. With strong demand for cyber resilience solutions, the fundamentals look promising, but this isn't necessarily a name to chase aggressively just yet.

Core & Main plunges as softness in single-family housing market hits top-line and guidance (CNM)
Core & Main’s (CNM) stock is plunging after its 2Q26 earnings report, driven by a miss on Q2 revenue expectations and a cut to FY26 revenue guidance, which now sits below consensus estimates. The company encountered several headwinds: softness in single-family housing and residential lot development, which weakened especially in the Sunbelt; softer residential demand; and elevated operating costs from inflation, employee benefits, recent acquisition integration, and facility expenses. These factors weighed on results and forced management to revise their guidance, factoring in continued residential softness and higher costs into the outlook for the rest of the year.

  • Despite these challenges, certain segments delivered notable strength. Growth was robust in treatment plant projects and fusible high-density polyethylene product lines, where CNM’s technical expertise and execution are winning share. The municipal market remained healthy thanks to funding for repair, replacement, and advanced metering infrastructure projects, while data center projects and large-scale regional contractor relationships are generating promise for future growth.
  • Gross margin rose slightly, climbing 40 bps yr/yr to 26.8% in Q2. Improvements were fueled by the successful execution of private label and sourcing initiatives, as well as accretive contributions from recent acquisitions. These operational wins helped offset some of the volume and cost pressures, allowing the company to control pricing and maintain profitability even as sales growth slowed.
  • This combination of 7% total sales growth and enhanced margins resulted in a Q2 EPS beat, with adjusted diluted EPS increasing 43% to $0.87. The EPS expansion reflects both higher net income and a lower share count following active share repurchase initiatives.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

While the stronger gross margins and EPS outperformance reveal the company’s discipline and operational strengths, these positives are being overwhelmed by the cautious tone on FY26 revenue guidance, which is driving the sharp selloff in shares. Investors are focused on the muted FY26 revenue outlook, which continues to be pressured by residential and cost headwinds, obscuring the underlying margin and earnings improvements.

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