EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage report Sep 11
Working gas in storage was 3,343 Bcf as of Friday, September 5, 2025, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 71 Bcf from the previous week. < 2 Bcf below the CelsiusEnergy forecast.
Stocks were 38 Bcf less than last year at this time and 188 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,155 Bcf.
At 3,343 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
CelsiusEnergy forecasts for next three weekly builds:
> For week ending Sept. 12: 72 Bcf, which would be 3 Bcf below the 5-year average
> For week ending Sept. 19: 46 Bcf, which would be 26 Bcf below the 5-year average
> For week ending Sept. 26: 60 Bcf, which would be 25 Bcf below the 5-year average.
The forecasts beyond the next week can and do change quite a bit based on the weather forecasts.
There are ten weeks left in the refill season, which ends November 14th. Because LNG exports are ramping up, we should see the surplus to the 5-year average cut in half before mid-November. If that happens, the front month NYMEX futures contract that will be the front month at the end of November (JAN26) is likely to be over $4.00/MMBtu. It was $4.18 at the time of this post.
EIA's natural gas price forecast (updated September 9th) is that HH natural gas will average $4.30/MMBtu in 2026.
If storage builds over the next three week are close to the CelsiusEnergy forecasts shown above, I expect the HH gas price to be over $3.50/MMBtu by the end of October. If weather in the first half of December is colder than normal, like it was last year, I expect the HH gas prices to move over $5.00/MMBtu by the end of this year.
The Gassers that I like are: AR, CTRA, EQT, RRC, PNE.TO, SDE.TO, PEY.TO.
BSM and KRP are the minerals companies most heavily weighted to natural gas.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group |
