Market Snapshot
| Dow | 46107.79 | +616.87 | (1.36%) | | Nasdaq | 22043.07 | +157.01 | (0.72%) | | SP 500 | 6587.47 | +55.43 | (0.85%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 2257 | Dec 495 | Vol 493.17 mln | | Nasdaq | Adv 3216 | Dec 1099 | Vol 8.57 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Health Care, Consumer Staples, Information Technology, Materials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Real Estate |
| | Weak: Energy |
Moving the Market
Spike in initial jobless claims bolsters October and December rate cut expectations
August CPI comes in slightly hotter than expected
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Stocks rally to record highs on rate cut optimism and broad strength
11-Sep-25 16:30 ET
Dow +616.87 at 46107.79, Nasdaq +157.01 at 22043.07, S&P +55.43 at 6587.47
[BRIEFING.COM] This morning's economic data strengthened the market's rate cut expectations through the end of the year, sending the S&P 500 (+0.9%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%), and DJIA (+1.4%) to record intraday and closing highs as stocks mounted a broad-based advance.
While the August PPI print came in slightly hotter than expected (0.4%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%), and Core CPI met expectations at 0.3%, today's focus centered around a 27,000 spike in initial jobless claims to 263,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 240,000), their highest level since October 2021.
While neither data report was particularly comforting, investors were, at least for the short term, enthused by the effect the weaker labor data had on near-term rate cut expectations.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is now a 92.4% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut to 3.75-4.00% at the October FOMC meeting versus 80.9% yesterday, and an 86.2% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut to 3.50-3.75% at the December FOMC meeting versus 74.5% yesterday.
A 25-basis point rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting was fully priced in entering today's session.
Stocks largely moved higher in response to the bolstered rate cut odds, with the major averages charting new record highs all the way through to the close.
Ten S&P 500 sectors closed with gains, with only the energy sector finishing flat as crude oil futures settled today's session $1.31 lower (-2.1%) at $62.36 per barrel.
Meanwhile, the materials (+2.1%), health care (+1.7%), consumer discretionary (+1.7%), financials (+1.7%), and real estate (+1.6%) sectors closed with gains wider than 1.5%.
Despite only a modest flow of corporate headlines, there were some impressive individual moves today.
Centene (CNC 34.08, +2.82, +9.00%) moved higher after reaffirming its FY25 guidance, Micron (MU 150.57, +10.57, +7.55%) benefitted from a price increase to $175 from $150 at Citigroup, and a Wall Street Journal report that Paramount Skydance (PSKY 17.50, +2.39, +15.82%) is preparing a majority cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 16.17, +3.63, +28.95%) sent both stocks sharply higher.
Tesla (TSLA 368.81, +21.02, +6.04%) was the top performer among the market's largest names amid a relatively subdued session for the mega-caps. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF closed with a 0.5% gain.
While most pockets of the market displayed strength today, homebuilder names outperformed in response to the bolstered rate cut probabilities, sending the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF up 2.8%.
Outside of the S&P 500, smaller-cap indices relished in the prospect of a friendlier future rate environment. The Russell 2000 advanced 1.8%, and the S&P MidCap 400 added 1.6%.
On the policy front, CNBC reported that the Senate will vote Monday on Stephen Miran's Fed Governor nomination, potentially seating him in time for the September FOMC meeting. Separately, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled he intends to expand the list of candidates under consideration for President Trump's next Fed Chair nomination.
U.S. Treasuries ended Thursday with slim gains in longer tenors, while the short underperformed as the market pondered the implications of today's economic data. The entire complex faced some pressure during the final two hours of action even though the U.S. Treasury completed this week's strong note and bond auction slate with a 30-year bond reopening that was right on the screws.
The 2-year note settled unchanged at 3.53%, the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.01%, and the 30-year note yield settled down three basis points at 4.65%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +14.2% YTD
- S&P 500: +12.0% YTD
- Russell 2000: + 8.6% YTD
- DJIA: +8.4% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +6.4% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- August CPI 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.2%, August Core CPI 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.3%
- The key takeaway from the report (for Main Street) is that food prices were starkly elevated in August (+0.5%), as were shelter (+0.4%), apparel (+0.5%), transportation services (+1.0%), and gasoline (+1.9%) prices.
- Weekly Initial Claims 263K (Briefing.com consensus 240K); Prior was revised to 236K from 237K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.939 mln; Prior was revised to 1.939 mln from 1.940 mln
- The key takeaway from the report is rooted in the eye-opening initial jobless claims print, which will be construed in the market's mind as a weakening labor market signal and another basis for the Fed to cut rates in September, as well as in October and December.
- The Treasury Budget for August showed a deficit of $344.8 billion compared to a deficit of $380.1 billion in the same period a year ago. The August deficit resulted from outlays ($689.1 billion) exceeding receipts ($344.3 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted so the August deficit cannot be compared to the July deficit of $291.1.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it underscores the large budget deficit the Treasury is running and how much larger it would be if not for the ramp-up in customs duties this fiscal year.
Fed Chair race still wide open
11-Sep-25 15:35 ET
Dow +611.17 at 46102.09, Nasdaq +170.88 at 22056.94, S&P +57.12 at 6589.16
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.8%), DJIA (+1.3%), and Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%) trade at session highs with just over half an hour left in today's action.
CNBC reports that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, tasked with heading the search for President Trump's next Fed Chair nomination, has stated that he would like to add one or two more names to the 11-name list of potential candidates.
Mr. Bessent has already met with former Director of the National Economic Council Lawrence Lindsey, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, and former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard.
Communication services sector rises on prospective entertainment deal
11-Sep-25 15:00 ET
Dow +595.25 at 46086.17, Nasdaq +161.06 at 22047.12, S&P +53.20 at 6585.24
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages are holding on to their impressive early gains as the market enters the final hour of trading.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Paramount Skydance (PSKY 16.46, +1.35, +8.91%) is prepping a majority cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 15.99, +3.45, +27.48%) backed by the Ellison family, though the size of the offer is unknown.
Warner Bros. Discovery shares spiked in response, making it the top gaining name in the S&P 500 today. The move helped the communication services sector (+0.4%) return above its flatline, with the sector also benefitting from Alphabet (GOOG 241.88, +2.32, +0.97%) shaking off early sluggishness to the tune of a nice gain
S&P 500 holds gains as Treasury reports $345 bln August deficit
11-Sep-25 14:30 ET
Dow +601.86 at 46092.78, Nasdaq +150.70 at 22036.76, S&P +50.67 at 6582.71
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.78%) is in second place on Thursday afternoon, little changed following the release of the Treasury's August budget from the bottom of the hour.
The Treasury Budget for August showed a deficit of $344.8 billion compared to a deficit of $380.1 billion in the same period a year ago.
The August deficit resulted from outlays ($689.1 billion) exceeding receipts ($344.3 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted so the August deficit cannot be compared to the July deficit of $291.1. The fiscal year-to-date deficit is $1.973 trillion versus $1.897 trillion in the same period a year ago.
The key takeaway from the report is that it underscores the large budget deficit the Treasury is running and how much larger it would be if not for the ramp-up in customs duties ($165 billion) this fiscal year.
Gold slips as hot CPI tempers Fed cut hopes
11-Sep-25 13:55 ET
Dow +601.55 at 46092.47, Nasdaq +150.30 at 22036.36, S&P +51.09 at 6583.13
[BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours to go on Thursday the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.69%) is in last place as more aggressive gains are being had elsewhere. Due out at the top of the hour is the Treasury's Monthly Budget.
Gold futures settled $8.40 lower (-0.2%) at $3,673.60/oz, after hotter-than-expected headline CPI tempered Fed rate-cut hopes, though softer jobless claims data offered a partial offset.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.3% to $97.54.
Opendoor Soars on Leadership Shakeup, $40M Investment, and Return of Founders (OPEN)
Opendoor surged after announcing a major leadership shakeup that has reignited investor interest in the struggling real estate tech platform. The company named Kaz Nejatian, current COO of Shopify (SHOP), as its new CEO — a move widely seen as a strong vote of confidence in Opendoor's potential.
- Nejatian brings deep AI-native and fintech experience, having previously founded Kash, an early mobile payments platform later acquired by a top US fintech firm.
- Opendoor describes him as a transformational leader well-suited to unlock its unique data and assets at scale.
- Former CEO Carrie Wheeler resigned last month, paving the way for this high-profile hire.
In a further boost to sentiment, co-founders Keith Rabois and Eric Wu are returning to the board, with Rabois taking on the role of Chairman. Their return is viewed as a critical step in bringing renewed strategic vision and operational rigor.
Adding to the momentum, Khosla Ventures and Eric Wu have committed $40 mln in equity capital through a private investment — a strong signal of internal confidence.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight -- Why the stock is popping:
- New leadership with tech and AI credibility — Nejatian's move from Shopify implies he sees real long-term value in Opendoor.
- Return of co-founders is fueling hopes of a turnaround.
- Fresh capital infusion shows belief from insiders and longtime supporters. After a tough stretch in a challenging housing market, this leadership reset could mark a key inflection point for Opendoor.
Delta Air Lines raises Q3 revenue outlook on strong travel demand and capacity discipline (DAL)
Delta Air Lines (DAL) reaffirmed its Q3 guidance while raising the lower end of its adjusted revenue outlook to $14.9-$15.2 bln, equating to growth of 2-4% yr/yr. The prior outlook called for flat-to-4% growth, and today’s update reflects improved booking trends, industry supply rationalization, and continued strength in premium demand. The reaffirmation and upward revision send a bullish signal for both DAL and the broader airline industry heading into the fall.
- DAL specifically called out better-than-expected demand trends and capacity discipline across the U.S. airline sector as key drivers behind the improved Q3 outlook. These tailwinds are expected to bolster unit revenue (TRASM), which has been under pressure in recent quarters due to intense pricing competition and overcapacity in some markets. DAL’s updated view implies that the worst of the domestic revenue softness may be behind it.
- Today’s update follows DAL’s Q2 earnings release on June 10, when the company reinstated its FY25 guidance after pausing it earlier this year due to uncertainty surrounding proposed tariffs. That reinstatement, coupled with today’s strengthened Q3 outlook, suggests rising management confidence in operational execution and market conditions.
- One standout trend continues to be DAL’s success in premium cabins, which command higher margins and have shown resilience across economic cycles. Alongside United Airlines (UAL), DAL has leaned into this segment by catering to younger, affluent travelers -- a strategy that continues to pay off as traditional business travel recovery remains mixed.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
DAL’s move to raise the lower end of Q3 revenue guidance reflects a meaningful improvement in the domestic travel environment and confirms a more constructive pricing backdrop. With summer travel demand holding firm and industry-wide capacity growth becoming more rational, DAL appears well-positioned to leverage its network strength and operational efficiency in the back half of the year. The stock reaction may be modest in the short term given recent gains, but today’s reaffirmation reinforces DAL’s status as a best-in-class operator in a gradually normalizing airline market.
Lovesac sinks after Q2 earnings beat overshadowed by weaker FY26 guidance (LOVE)
Lovesac (LOVE) is trading sharply lower despite delivering a sizable Q2 (Jul) EPS beat, as softer FY26 guidance weighed on sentiment. Revenue was in line at $160.5 mln (+2.5% yr/yr), but FY26 EPS outlook was cut to $0.52-1.05 (from $0.80-1.36) and revenue narrowed to $710-740 mln (from $700-750 mln), reflecting tariff and discounting pressures. The midpoint of FY26 EPS guidance is below consensus estimates.
- Showroom net sales increased 10.4% to $109.1 mln, driven by an increase of +0.9% in omni-channel comparable sales. Though that is a deceleration from the +2.8% comp in Q1 (Apr).
- LOVE saw slight improvement in May-July trends but cautioned it's too early to call a rebound amid tariff and consumer uncertainty.
- Gross margin decreased 260 bps yr/yr to 56.4%, driven by increases of 110 bps in inbound transportation costs, 50 bps in outbound transportation and warehousing costs and a decrease of 100 bps in product margin.
- New product momentum building with Snugg launch, expanding to 100 showrooms and backed by fresh brand/marketing efforts, positioning LOVE to capture share once category demand normalizes.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
This was another challenging quarter for LOVE following a difficult Q1, underscoring how tariff volatility, sluggish consumer spending, and an intensely promotional furnishings market are weighing on results. Even so, the company continues to notch share gains, supported by ongoing product innovation, including the new Snugg couch, and solid showroom performance. That said, persistent margin compression and reduced earnings visibility remain key concerns. Management cautioned that Q3 will bear the brunt of current headwinds, though it anticipates a more favorable setup in Q4.
Oxford Industries: Guidance Relief, Strong Comps, and Lofty Dividend Maintained (OXM)
Oxford Industries popped higher after posting mixed Q2 (Jul) results, as investors cheered the reaffirmation of full-year EPS guidance — a key win after last quarter's sharp downward revision.
- Q2 EPS beat expectations, but revenue declined 4% yr/yr to $403.1 mln, slightly below estimates; Q3 guidance disappointed: a larger-than-expected loss is forecasted, with midpoint revenue also falling short of consensus.
- Total Q2 comps were -5%, in-line with guidance. Lilly Pulitzer continued to shine with a low-single digit positive comp, offsetting wholesale softness. Tommy Bahama and Johnny Was struggled with high-single digit and low-double digit negative comps, respectively.
Execution issues at Tommy Bahama (color assortment, product line gaps) hurt early summer sales, especially in Florida. However, quick merchandising fixes have helped stabilize trends.
- Early Q3 comps are positive quarter-to-date across all brands. Lilly Pulitzer remains solid. Tommy Bahama is flattish but showing meaningful improvement from earlier in the year, driven by recovering store traffic in July and August.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
- Key positives driving the rally: Full-year EPS guidance reaffirmed, easing fears of another cut. Continued resilience in Lilly Pulitzer, even amid broader retail pressures.
- Dividend maintained — the yield, though lower now after the stock's move, remains elevated at ~5.5%, a rarity in struggling apparel retail. While Q3 guidance was soft and some brand-level challenges remain, investors appear focused on stabilization and the fact that the worst may be priced in.
Kroger feeds investors with another EPS beat on further margin expansion, healthy comps (KR)
Kroger (KR) once again beat expectations with a strong Q2 performance, marking over five straight years of quarterly EPS beats. However, the reaction in the stock is rather muted as the market digests whether the updated guidance clears a high bar of expectations. Specifically, the company raised the low end of its full-year EPS guidance to $4.70-$4.80 from $4.60-$4.80, while nudging up its identical sales growth forecast to 2.7-3.4% from 2.25-3.25%.
- Key drivers of the EPS beat included gross margin expansion of 40 bps to 22.5%, reflecting improved product mix, reduced supply chain costs, and disciplined promotional spending. Management noted a focus on fresh offerings and private label brands as margin tailwinds. Also, KR has remained aggressive with buybacks, repurchasing approximately $500 mln in shares year-to-date, further supporting bottom-line growth.
- Q2 Identical Sales (ex-fuel) rose a solid 3.4%, ahead of expectations, as KR benefited from resilient consumer demand, effective pricing strategies, and digital channel strength. Traffic growth was positive, and household engagement remained elevated, particularly in loyalty programs.
- Kroger’s private label business, including its Simple Truth and Kroger brand lines, saw double-digit growth as inflation-conscious shoppers leaned into value-driven choices.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
KR delivered another strong quarter, continuing its streak of consistent EPS outperformance and solid execution. Margin expansion and capital returns helped fuel a robust bottom line, while ID sales remain healthy despite a challenging macro backdrop. The guidance raise signals confidence, but it was incremental rather than bold -- and that may have fallen short for a market hoping for a more bullish outlook, especially after recent outperformance in the stock.
With grocery fundamentals stabilizing, margin management improving, and capital deployment continuing, KR remains a high-quality operator. That said, valuation is no longer cheap, and with the Albertsons (ACI) merger still pending, some investors may be pausing to reassess near-term upside.
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