| | | Putin keeps testing and NATO keeps talking.
Maneuvers by Russia and Belarus
An exercise as a hidden mobilization?
Last updated: 12.09.2025 05:20
(translated from German)
Near the Polish border, about 12,000 soldiers from Belarus and Russia begin a military exercise. Experts see this as a provocation towards the West - and the danger of a hidden mobilization.
By Florian Kellermann, ARD Kiev
It is the first joint military exercise by Russia and Belarus on Belarusian territory since 2021. At that time, the maneuver prepared the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to analysts in retrospect. At that time, Russia also attacked from the northwest, i.e. from Belarusian territory.
The government in Kiev considers it unlikely that Russia could now invade again from Belarus. Ukraine is now protecting its border too well, says Andriy Demchenko, spokesman for the Ukrainian border guard.
Ukraine closely monitors maneuvers
"Of course, our units are observing what is happening there, to what extent this maneuver will further increase the danger to our country," says the spokesman. "We can already see that there are Russian troops and military equipment on the other side of the border."
In the first days of the invasion three and a half years ago, Russian troops advanced from Belarus first to the site of the former Chernobyl nuclear power plant, then on towards Kyiv. This advance came to a halt only a few kilometers north and west of the Ukrainian capital. After a few weeks, however, Ukraine managed to drive the Russian troops out of there again. Russia largely moved these troops to the Donbass, to the front in eastern Ukraine.
New reservists for the front?
At least there could be provocations at the border in the course of the Russian-Belarusian maneuver, says Ukrainian military expert Vasyl Pechnjo on the Espreso TV channel. "In addition, the exercise can represent a kind of hidden mobilization for Russia," warns Pechnjo.
The Russian army could send reservists to the exercise without saying that they were actually intended for the so-called special military operation in Ukraine in Russia. "And then they are sent to the front in eastern Ukraine, for example," says the military expert. This would give Russia new soldiers and allow it to intensify its attacks on the embattled sections of the front.
Main goal: intimidation of the WestAbove all, however, the maneuver serves to intimidate Ukraine's Western partners, according to Kiev. That is why the Belarusian military leadership has announced that it will also practice the use of nuclear weapons and new medium-range missiles.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky mentioned the maneuver in the same breath as the Russian drones that flew into Polish territory, i.e. NATO territory, on Wednesday night and were shot down there.
"The Russians are testing what they can afford to do, how the NATO countries react," Zelensky said. "The Belarusian-Russian maneuver has de facto begun. Testing NATO's response may be among the plans for this military exercise." |
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