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how dangerous is the virus out break at Universal Ostrich Farms?
Here’s a breakdown of what’s known so far about the avian influenza (H5N1) outbreak at Universal Ostrich Farms in Edgewood, B.C., and how dangerous it might be. If you want, I can also go into what experts are saying about risks to humans etc.
What we know - The outbreak is of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1). Poultrymed+2CityNews Vancouver+2
- It affected ostriches. In roughly 36 days, 69 ostriches died—about 15% of that flock. Poultrymed
- Two of the dead birds tested positive for the virus. Poultrymed+1
- Even though there haven’t been additional deaths since January (after the initial period) the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) decided to order a cull of about 400 remaining ostriches. The reason: to prevent persistence of the virus in the flock, possible mutation, and risk of spread. Poultrymed+2CityNews Vancouver+2
- Lab analysis suggests this particular strain is more lethal/pathogenic than earlier ones. It’s been described as a “novel reassortment” or unique subtype, with enhanced ability to cause disease in lab animals (e.g. mice) even in low doses. CityNews Vancouver+2RM Outlook+2
What is uncertain / what limits our assessment - It’s not clear whether the remaining ostriches are still infected or shedding virus. Some reports suggest the ones that survived may not pose an obvious risk now. RM Outlook+3Worms & Germs Blog+3Poultrymed+3
- The CFIA has admitted gaps in the data—e.g. not knowing how infectious or dormant the virus might be among survivors. CityNews Vancouver+1
- There is some controversy/argument over whether culling all exposed birds (even apparently healthy ones) is scientifically necessary. The farm owners argue for testing and studying immunity. Worms & Germs Blog+2Poultrymed+2
How dangerous is it (risks) “Dangerous” depends on what you are measuring: risk to birds (other poultry), risk to public health, risk of mutation or long-term circulation.
- For avian populations / poultry industry: This is serious. H5N1 is highly pathogenic among birds, and once in a flock, can cause large die-offs, spread to nearby farms or wild birds, which then further expand risk. A novel/ more lethal strain increases the stakes. The potential economic and ecological damage is non-trivial.
- For humans: So far, no strong evidence that this strain has caused human illness (beyond what's already known for H5N1 in other settings). Avian influenza sometimes jumps species, but it typically requires close contact. Health agencies monitor such outbreaks carefully. If the strain is more lethal (in animals) that raises concern, but there is no public report (as far as I saw) that humans have been infected from this specific farm.
- For mutation risk / long-term circulation: This is perhaps where the danger is highest. If the virus is allowed to persist unaddressed, perhaps in latent form, or with low-grade infection, it could mutate, potentially becoming more transmissible (to other birds, or conceivably to mammals). That’s part of why the CFIA is pushing to cull exposed birds even if they appear healthy.
Summary: Overall risk level Putting it all together, the outbreak is serious in terms of bird health, economic impacts, and possible mutation risk. But as of now, the risk to human health is presumably low (based on what’s published). The biggest concerns are:
- Spreading to other bird flocks / wild birds
- Mutation
- Economic and animal welfare costs
If you like, I can get you the latest risk-assessment from Canadian health or agriculture agencies, to see how likely human spillover is, or how big the broader threat is deemed. Do you want me to dig into that? |
