School closures during COVID created massive long-term costs with limited health benefits
University of OxfordSep 13 2025
School closures during the COVID-19 pandemic imposed enormous long-term costs while other measures delivered better health outcomes for far less money, according to new research led by Oxford University's Department of Statistics and the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science analysing non-pharmaceutical interventions in the United States.
The study, published in BMC Global and Public Health, examined policies implemented across US states during 2020, before vaccines became available. Researchers from Oxford and the University of Washington analysed eleven different non-pharmaceutical interventions, combining disease modelling with economic analysis to calculate both health benefits and costs to society.
During this pre-vaccine period, policymakers relied entirely on non-pharmaceutical measures such as mask mandates, social distancing, testing, contact tracing, and facility closures to control the virus.
School closures prevented roughly 77,200 COVID-19 deaths and reduced transmission rates by 8.2% but created £1.6 trillion ($2 trillion) in future economic losses through damaged education. Students lost upwards of 0.35 schoolyears of learning, with some states keeping schools closed for nearly the entire 2020-2021 academic year.
In comparison, mask mandates cut transmission by 19%, making them more effective at preventing disease spread, while imposing minimal costs. Testing and contact tracing programmes also proved efficient compared to implementation costs.
Medical News
The shortage of personal protective equipment PPE lasted nearly a year. The vaccine also wasn't available for school children until May 2021. Jared Kushner's shadow covid task force was responsible for invoking the emergency order to re-direct manufacturing plants to meet the new demand for masks, gloves, etc. He put in orders from existing suppliers in China who were already backed up. |
