Despite Recent “Pin the Tail on the European Donkey” Moves, Trump Unlikely to Escape Accusation of Losing Ukraine War
Posted on September 15, 2025 by Yves Smith
Yours truly must confess to not writing regularly of late about the Ukraine war because there’s been a dearth of big new developments. The pattern for some time has been of of Ukraine and the European Commission, and most NATO members trying what are repeats of failed/rejected strategies vis-a-vis Russia to keep the conflict going while pretending that they are consistent with a peace deal. So we see, for instance, everything from a pointless 19th European sanctions package to endless variants of peacekeeping and reassurance forces to continued scheming about how to seize frozen Russian assets (fiercely resisted by Euroclear) to demands that the US back long-distance missile strikes into Russia and keep supplying weapons despite not being able to produce remotely enough for Ukraine, let alone its many other demands.
Some high-profile members of the Ukraine-skeptic commentary community are giving thumb’s up to Trump apparently having scored a win against the Ukraine hawks and Europeans. As we’ll explain, as much as Trump might indeed have successfully slipped a noose, this gambit in no way solves Trump’s much bigger problem, that he will still be The President Who Lost Ukraine. And his own messaging will be partly to blame.
Admittedly, Trump has come up with a solid basis for rejecting the Senator Linsey Graham demand, loudly cheered by the pro-war faction in the EU, for “bone-crunching” US secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian energy like China, India, and if one is being consistent, Turkiye and Europe, among others. Trump was all in for imposing an additional 25% tariffs against India over the 25% already imposed until they backfired. Even the not-well-reported fact that the additional 25% tariffs were limited in the number of included products still had an impact on India, with the domestic press highlighting the damage and the rupee falling to an all-time low against the greenback. And that’s before getting to the fury of the betrayal after the Biden Administration had pressed India to buy Russian oil to keep market prices from rising and Trump had acted as if he were a friend of India.
Naked Capitalism
The EU appears to be buying time to ramp up military production and field a combined force on the ground and in the air in Ukraine to fight Russia now that Ukraine appears to be nearing a spent force. The hope is that 3 to 5 years of further sanctions and war will weaken Russia enough with confidence that Russia has no intention of occupying the Western half of Ukraine. The war will then be contained to Ukraine and Russia. |
