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Gold/Mining/Energy : Inco-Voisey Bay Nickel [ T.N.V]

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To: Winer who wrote (186)2/25/1998 11:14:00 AM
From: 1king  Read Replies (1) of 1615
 
10Q for all the info. Much appreciated by all, I'm sure.

Some good points, some not-so-good points but this is typical for the mass media.

I really can't see anyone wanting to take over INCO. Tough to justify acquiring a foundering giant and not really logical. Maybe a cash infusion for a royalty on Voisey. I know the royalty sisters and several mutual funds would like to create a Voisey Portfolio.

In terms of Falconbridge, an outright takeover is not presently possible with international securities regulators (or whoever). It would mean a domination of the nickel market. However, with Noranda fully intending to take the company private there might be a loop-hole, but the timing does not appear to be there. I believe the term rationalization is very appropriate for the basin operations. INCO has a huge moral dilemma (if not fear of union reprisal)and there are lots of smart moves to be made in the basin. This is obvious considering we have two companies in the same place in the same business with the same market.

Feeding smelters is probably the biggest wildcard and a bit of research on current smelters (i.e capacity and feed)could generate some interesting scenarios. Mr. Crebs is our world research dude.

Solving the moral/operations dilemma (the economics have been clear for 5 years) in Sudbury will go along way for INCO but nothing can help them until Voisey ore moves. The present price of nickel and environmental hypocrisy may create a temporal constraint the company can't withstand.

BUT

Voisey will be mined in the not-so-distant future. Period.

ttfn

FYI basin economics:
INCO has watered the $90M Victor exploration and development shaft after one year. It seems as though 30% combined at 8300ft is not going to be economical for some time.
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