Market Snapshot
| Dow | 45883.24 | +49.23 | (0.11%) | | Nasdaq | 22348.75 | +207.65 | (0.94%) | | SP 500 | 6615.28 | +30.99 | (0.47%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1553 | Dec 1216 | Vol 1.06 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 2534 | Dec 2109 | Vol 8.96 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials |
| | Weak: Consumer Staples, Materials, Health Care |
Moving the Market
Early strength among mega-cap names led by Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOG)
Broader market cautious ahead of FOMC meeting
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Mega-cap strength lifts indexes to new highs ahead of Fed decision
15-Sep-25 16:35 ET
Dow +49.23 at 45883.24, Nasdaq +207.65 at 22348.75, S&P +30.99 at 6615.28
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market kicked off the week with index-level gains that saw the S&P 500 (+0.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%) secure new all-time intraday and closing highs, while the DJIA (+0.1%) lagged. Gains were largely concentrated in a select group of mega-cap leaders, which continued to flex their influence over index performance.
Shares of Tesla (TSLA 410.04, +14.10, +3.56%) surged early after it was reported that CEO Elon Musk purchased around 2.6 million shares of stock worth nearly $1 billion on Friday, his first open market purchase of the stock since February 2020. Though the stock finished well off its session highs, it still added substantial gains to its impressive September run and helped the consumer discretionary sector (+1.1%) finish among the best-performing S&P 500 sectors.
The communication services sector (+2.3%) comfortably outpaced all other sectors today as Alphabet (GOOG 251.76, +10.38, +4.30%) hit fresh records, becoming just the fourth U.S. company to surpass $3 trillion in market value.
With additional solid showings from Amazon (AMZN 231.43, +3.28, +1.44%), Meta Platforms (META 764.70, +9.11, +1.21%), and Microsoft (MSFT 515.36, +5.46, +1.07%), the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF advanced 0.9% today.
The information technology sector (+0.8%) traded flattish out of the gate, nursing a loss in NVIDIA (NVDA 177.75, -0.07, -0.04%), which traded lower following reports that China found the company to be in violation of its anti-monopoly law. The company issued a statement in response reaffirming their compliance with the law "in all respects," and the stock finished near its flatline.
Elsewhere in the sector, Seagate Tech (STX 211.12, +15.13, +7.72%) and Western Digital (WDC 102.39, +4.73, +4.84%) furthered their strong recent runs as HDD prices continue to increase due to tight supply and strong demand for large-capacity drives fueled by AI-driven storage requirements.
The industrials (+0.5%) and utilities (+0.2%) round out the five S&P 500 sectors that advanced today.
Of the six sectors that finished lower, only the consumer staples (-1.2%), health care (-1.0%), and materials (-0.8%) finished with losses wider than 0.5%.
While today's action resulted in decent index level gains, the advance was dependent on the strong performances of several mega-cap names. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-0.2%) finished with a loss today, markedly underperforming the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.5%).
Today’s gains came on lighter-than-average volume, reflecting a cautious tone as investors await this week's FOMC meeting for clarity on the policy path ahead.
With a 25-basis point rate cut already fully priced in, homebuilder stocks retreated in what looked like an early “sell-the-news” move, leaving the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF down 1.3%.
Meanwhile, smaller-cap names delivered a mixed showing after their recent strength on firming rate cut expectations, with the Russell 2000 closing with a 0.3% gain while the S&P MidCap 400 slipped 0.1%.
On the trade front, the U.S. and China reached a framework agreement to transition TikTok to U.S. ownership, with a scheduled call between President Trump and President Xi Jinping on Friday to finalize discussions.
U.S. Treasuries began the week with gains across the curve. The 2-year note yield settled down three basis points to 3.53%, and the 10-year note yield settled down three basis points to 4.03%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +15.7% YTD
- S&P 500: +12.5% YTD
- DJIA: +7.9% YTD
- Russell 2000: +7.9% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +5.1% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- The Empire State Manufacturing survey fell to -8.7 in September (Briefing.com consensus 3.0) from 11.9 in August.
S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite seek record closing highs
15-Sep-25 15:30 ET
Dow +32.36 at 45866.37, Nasdaq +169.51 at 22310.61, S&P +24.37 at 6608.66
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.4%) and Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%) look to capture record closing highs to go along with their fresh all-time highs, as a quiet afternoon has kept the major averages with the bulk of their early gains.
A lack of corporate headlines has kept the market trading in a stable manner, as investors largely await the outcome of Wednesday's FOMC meeting.
Additionally, the market has yet to receive an update on Stephen Miran's Fed Governor confirmation vote in the Sentate, which is set to take place today.
Consumer discretionary sector sees early gain eroded
15-Sep-25 15:00 ET
Dow +28.61 at 45862.62, Nasdaq +170.07 at 22311.17, S&P +24.73 at 6609.02
[BRIEFING.COM] Despite a steady decline in breadth figures and sector strength, the S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%), and DJIA (+0.1%) have not changed much since their initial moves this morning.
Advancers outpaced decliners by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio this morning but now hold a slim 5-to-4 advantage on the NYSE and an even thinner 6-to-5 edge on the Nasdaq.
The consumer discretionary sector (+0.8%) has seen a nearly 2.0% early gain halved, as Tesla (TSLA 406.26, +10.32, +2.61%) now trades well off its morning highs.
Additionally, homebuilder stocks are exhibiting notable weakness ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting, possibly experiencing an early "sell-the-news" reaction as a rate cut is fully anticipated.
Since the beginning of July, shares of D.R. Horton (DHI 171.45, -6.42, -3.61%) have rallied by 27%, while Lennar (LEN 133.07, -4.20, -3.06%) has gained 19%, Toll Brothers (TOL 141.04, -2.43, -1.69%) has jumped by 24%, and KB Home (KBH64.84, -1.04, -1.59%) has rallied by 22%.
With today's losses, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF is down 1.6%.
S&P 500 gains 0.4% as Seagate, Albemarle, and Estee Lauder lead; Corteva slumps on split concerns
15-Sep-25 14:30 ET
Dow +15.85 at 45849.86, Nasdaq +175.26 at 22316.36, S&P +25.14 at 6609.43
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.38%) is in second place on Monday afternoon, up about 25 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Seagate Tech (STX 211.81, +15.82, +8.07%), Albemarle (ALB 81.01, +5.03, +6.62%), and Estee Lauder (EL 86.76, +3.11, +3.72%) dot the top of the standings. STX follows general HDD strength with BofA Securities upping their target on STX this morning on their view that the HDD cycle remains strong, while EL also caught a target raise out of Evercore ISI.
Meanwhile, Corteva (CTVA 70.06, -4.23, -5.69%) is lagging as the market questioned the strategic and financial merits of a potential Seed/Crop Protection split, with analysts warning it could dilute synergies, create two weaker entities, and offer unclear value creation.
Gold hits record $3,719 as Fed rate cut bets, weaker dollar fuel safe-haven demand
15-Sep-25 14:00 ET
Dow +39.10 at 45873.11, Nasdaq +184.79 at 22325.89, S&P +28.99 at 6613.28
[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (+0.83%) is in first place among the major averages with about two hours to go on Monday.
Gold futures settled $32.40 higher (+0.9%) at $3,719.00/oz, as traders bet heavily on Fed rate cuts in the weeks ahead. The move to fresh highs came amid mounting expectations that soft U.S. labor data and easing inflation pressures will prompt policymakers to pivot toward looser monetary policy. A weaker dollar and declining Treasury yields further underpinned bullion, while lingering geopolitical and policy uncertainty added to safe-haven flows.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.3% to $97.30.
Intel trims FY25 expense forecast after Altera sale amid restructuring push (INTC)
Intel (INTC) is moving sharply higher after the company disclosed in an SEC filing that it now expects FY25 adjusted operating expenses to be $16.8 bln, down from its prior forecast of $17.0 bln. The improved expense outlook follows INTC’s completed sale of its majority stake in Altera -- its programmable chip unit -- on September 12. The move is being viewed positively by investors as a tangible step in INTC’s broader strategy to streamline operations, bolster liquidity, and remain disciplined with cost controls amid a still-challenging competitive landscape.
- The update comes with further reassurance for investors: INTC reaffirmed its 2026 non-GAAP operating expense target of $16.0 bln. That reaffirmation signals the company’s continued focus on cost discipline and lends credibility to its multi-year turnaround strategy, especially as it looks to reduce spending while simultaneously investing in strategic growth areas such as AI, foundry services, and next-gen chip design.
- The divestiture of Altera, which generated $816 mln in revenue during 1H25, is part of INTC’s broader realignment to sharpen its core focus and free up capital. Management appears committed to streamlining the business in order to better compete against more agile and higher-growth rivals. Although Altera contributed meaningful revenue, its sale aligns with INTC’s strategy to concentrate resources on its most promising, scalable segments.
- Still, INTC faces major challenges ahead. Most notably, the company’s loss-generating Foundry business remains a long-term project that has yet to prove it can achieve the kind of scale and profitability enjoyed by global leaders like Taiwan Semiconductor.
- Meanwhile, competitive pressure is intensifying: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NVIDIA (NVDA) continue to widen their technological lead, especially in AI-accelerated computing, while Qualcomm (QCOM) is gaining ground in the PC and laptop markets with new ARM-based chipsets that threaten Intel’s x86 dominance.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
INTC is catching a tailwind today after trimming its FY25 expense forecast and reaffirming its 2026 cost-reduction target -- a move that supports the bull case for INTC’s ongoing turnaround. The sale of its majority stake in Altera helps shore up cash and streamline the business, signaling continued strategic discipline. However, the road ahead remains steep. INTC still needs to prove it can revive its foundry ambitions, regain CPU share from AMD, and hold off QCOM’s push into client computing. The company is taking steps in the right direction, but execution will be critical in the quarters to come.
Hain Celestial Slumps After Surprise Q4 Loss, Sharp Revenue Drop and Lack of Guidance (HAIN)
Hain Celestial (HAIN) is under heavy pressure today after reporting Q4 (Jun) results that badly missed expectations. The food and wellness company posted an adjusted net loss of $0.02/share compared to a profit of $0.13/share last year, while revenue fell 13.4% yr/yr to $363 mln, marking one of its steepest quarterly declines in recent years.
- The shortfall was broad-based, with North America organic net sales down 14% on snack velocity challenges and distribution losses, while International fell 6% amid softness in baby food and unusually warm weather that hurt soup sales.
- Gross margin compressed 290 bps yr/yr to 20.5%, pressured by weaker volume mix, inflation, and higher trade spend.
- New leadership is pursuing a turnaround with 12% SG&A cuts, SKU rationalization, and exits from underperforming categories like meat-free in North America. A Goldman Sachs-led strategic review could also result in asset sales.
- The company is also revamping its innovation pipeline and rolling out pricing actions across most categories, with new product launches in snacks, tea, yogurt, and soups aimed at reigniting growth.
- With the review ongoing, HAIN withheld FY26 guidance but expects Q1 sales/EBITDA to mirror Q4's weak levels, before stronger 2H performance on cost actions and portfolio streamlining. Management emphasized its goal of positive free cash flow in FY26.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
This was another tough quarter for Hain Celestial, as the surprise loss, sharp revenue decline, and lack of concrete guidance have spooked investors. While new leadership is pushing bold restructuring efforts, including cost cuts and portfolio simplification, the turnaround faces significant execution risk and will likely take time to bear fruit. More broadly, the stock has been in a multiyear downtrend since late 2021, underscoring persistent doubts about HAIN's ability to stabilize its brands, regain market share, and reignite sustainable growth.
Harley-Davidson: Fed Rate Cuts, Robust Share Buybacks, Reducing Credit Risk, New CEO (HOG)
Harley-Davidson is an under-the-radar name that could benefit meaningfully from a Fed rate cut, expected at Wednesday's FOMC meeting. As a maker of premium, highly discretionary motorcycles, HOG stands to gain from lower financing costs that could entice buyers back into the showroom.
- Motorcycles are big-ticket items, and demand is sensitive to interest rates — making HOG a lesser-discussed but clear beneficiary of easier monetary policy.
- Beyond the macro angle, HOG has joined our YIELD Leaders rankings, thanks to a strong shareholder yield of 10.3% (8.0% buyback yield + 2.3% dividend yield), placing it in the top 10 of our report.
HOG has had a tough stretch: Q2 revenue: $1.31 bln, down 19% yr/yr due to planned shipment cuts and soft demand. That marked the fourth straight quarter of double-digit revenue declines, with Q3 also expected to be down, though less sharply.
But there are reasons to take a fresh look:
- Financial overhaul: HOG just sold residual interests in securitized loans and entered a five-year financing partnership with KKR and PIMCO. These firms will buy ~two-thirds of future HDFS retail loan originations annually at a premium. The deal will generate substantial cash, allowing HOG to pay down ~$450 mln in debt and ramp up its $1.0 bln buyback — with $500 mln (~14% of shares) targeted in 2H25.
- Leadership is also getting a refresh: New CEO Artie Starrs (formerly of Topgolf Callaway) takes the reins Oct. 1, signaling potential strategic change.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
HOG is more than just bikes — it's a global lifestyle brand, with revenue from parts, apparel, and financial services. Lower rates, a de-risked financing arm, an aggressive buyback plan, and a new CEO all position the company for a potential turnaround. With a shareholder yield north of 10%, HOG is a compelling name to watch if the Fed begins cutting.
Tesla's Musk makes bold $1 bln stock bet amid EV headwinds and AI ambitions (TSLA)
Tesla (TSLA) shares are jumping today after CEO Elon Musk reportedly purchased nearly $1.0 bln worth of TSLA stock, marking his first direct stock buy since February 2020. The massive purchase is being interpreted by the market as a strong vote of confidence in TSLA’s long-term prospects, especially as the company navigates a tumultuous 2025 marked by slumping deliveries, eroding market share -- particularly in China -- and growing competitive pressures in the EV space.
- Musk’s move comes at a pivotal moment for TSLA. The company is facing both short-term and structural challenges, including softening EV demand, margin compression from aggressive price cuts, and a looming phase-out of the $7,500 U.S. federal EV tax credit at the end of September.
- While the credit’s expiration could spark a short-term demand spike in Q3, it also sets the stage for another potential sales headwind in Q4 and beyond. That makes Musk’s timing all the more significant, suggesting a longer-term bet that TSLA can pivot toward next-gen technologies and monetization avenues.
- Indeed, Musk’s purchase reflects more than just faith in the core EV business -- it’s a bold bet on TSLA’s emerging initiatives in AI, robotaxis, and humanoid robotics. Musk has repeatedly emphasized that these frontier technologies, not vehicles, will define TSLA’s future. The robotaxi platform, in particular, is a cornerstone of that vision, with Musk projecting it to become TSLA’s most valuable business line.
- Musk’s stock buy also comes in the shadow of TSLA’s controversial proposal to reinstate a $1 trillion pay package for the CEO, contingent on meeting aggressive valuation and performance benchmarks. That compensation structure has drawn criticism but also reflects the company’s ambition and reliance on Musk’s leadership to drive high-risk, high-reward innovation.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
TSLA is catching a bid today on news of Musk’s $1 bln stock purchase, a rare and bullish signal amid what’s been a difficult year operationally. While the EV business faces structural headwinds and intensifying global competition, particularly from Chinese rivals, the market is treating Musk’s buy as a sign that the next chapter -- built around AI, robotics, and autonomy -- could unlock massive future value. However, that future remains speculative, and with regulatory hurdles, technical challenges, and demand risks on the horizon, TSLA still has much to prove.
RH stock drops after tariff costs drive revenue guidance cut and margin pressure (RH)
RH (RH) is trading lower today after reporting its Q2 (Jul) results last night. The luxury home furnishings retailer posted a sharp EPS miss while revenue rose 8.4% yr/yr to $899.2 mln, slightly below consensus. The bigger reaction stems from revised guidance, with full year revenue growth now expected at 9-11%, down from 10-13%.
- Revenue +8.4% yr/yr with demand +13.7%, showing resilience despite tariffs and a weak housing market. Margins improved: adj. op margin +340 bps to 15.1%, adj. EBITDA +340 bps to 20.6%. Net income +79% with $81 mln FCF.
- Strong international performance with RH England demand up 76% and online demand up 34%. RH Paris off to a strong start with day-by-day traffic exceeding RH New York.
- Tariffs are a growing headwind with $30 mln incremental cost added to its outlook. Tariffs also resulted in a delay of its Fall Interiors sourcebook and shifts $40 mln revenue into 2H. Also, new 50% India tariffs impact 7% of business and a U.S. furniture investigation adds more uncertainty.
- As a result, full-year operating margin is now expected at 13-14% versus 14-15% previously, adjusted EBITDA at 19-20% versus 20-21%, and free cash flow at $250-300 mln, down $50 mln. The outlook also factors in about a 200 bps drag from international expansion and a 90 bps drag from tariffs.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
RH continues to show underlying demand strength, and its affluent customer base has proven resilient, even as housing turnover sits at multi-decade lows. However, the incremental tariff burden and added uncertainty from a potential new investigation are difficult to ignore in the near term. While RH's scale and positioning could ultimately allow it to capitalize on tariffs relative to smaller peers and benefit from a housing recovery down the line, the current reality is one of pressured margins and reduced free cash flow. Longer term, its international expansion strategy adds growth optionality, but near-term profitability headwinds are weighing on sentiment.
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