Sure, there are those who have been questioning widespread ATM to the desktop for quite awhile (what exactly do YOU do with CPE ATM?). But CO/enterprise ATM is happening (as you likely wel know), and as enterprise T1/E1 continues to explode,look for YURI to be there.
First ATM to the desktop is completely different from ATM to the premise. I think you understand this. I don't think I've argued ATM to the desktop on this thread....if I appeared to then I'll try to be more careful going forward...that is not the issue.
Today there are many technologies competing edge networking space and ATM is clearly one of them. I have not denyed that. In fact, ATM and frame relay have a strong lead over IP. The comments I've made simply seek to raise awareness to that fact that multimedia over IP is becomming the next HOT topic. If you don't like to hear it then ignore it and go on your merry way... But this is indeed a fact. Watch the news...
Fwiw, "rumors" are that RBOCs and CLECs are testing YURI products, and there is a likelihood of contracts in Q1 to early Q2. And can you feel the squeeze potential?
I have no doubt. Do you think these folks will put all thier eggs in one basket at this juncture?
(fwiw, I averaged-in the balance of my position today at 20 1/4 and 3/8. I saw a lot of SOES activity, and some bigger pieces get shaken out. I also saw some >10K pieces on up volume later in the day. We may well test 19, but I would consider adding (barring hearing anything about imminent telco business NO LONGER being likely) if it did break 19. BTW, the 3 analysts who follow YURI are all VERY bullish with strong buys.
Good for you, in the meantime, YURI has done nothing. I'm getting better returns out of other tek holdings such as CSCO, INTC, ASND, even CIEN is a buy now. YURI may well do something which is why I hold a small position, but you can't argue the point that this stock is performing poorly.
Of COURSE end use demand drives the whole buildout.
Well then, we agree on that....
No arguments that IP is the protocol of the (near term) future. However oice circuits will NOT disappear into frame relay / VoIP any time soon. Even IP evangelists like Sidgmore acknowledge this.
Voice circuits won't disappear into any data infrastructure anytime soon - not IP, not frame and not ATM. However voice is being integratred into all of the above as we speak. Each have their issues. The technology that delievers the be quality with the best financial return for the players will win. I understand your arguments about ATM all too well, but there is an underlying assumption which is ATM is the ONLY technology that can deliver QoS. Well, that may be changing...
That having been said, you must also be WELL aware of the running of ATM over IP (eg., the MPOA standard)....
Yes, your point? I think this is required if you have IP at the edges and ATM at the core. You haven't made a strong arguement for why ATM is the technology of choice at the network edge. The issue is where the demarkation between IP and ATM ends up. I don't know for certain where this will shake out, I'm simply suggesting that the focus of YURI - ATM at the edge - is a huge battle ground and YURI will need lots of help if they wish to succeed. Their strategy up to now is flawed but this is a separate discussion.
WCOM or ATHM, I have heard many of these guys speak - recently. Believe me, at the CEO/CTO level, they ALL acknowledge the need of integration of TOLL quality voice and video in addition to data, as well as some type of prioritization and QoS provisioning to meet these growing kinds of needs.
Yes, again what is your point. It has yet to be proven that TOLL quality voice can not be supported in a network with IP edges and ATM/Circuit (PSTN) switched cores.
also see nelsonpub.com;
Went there, yep, that's the same line we've been feeding the analysts for years. Nice to see they can regurgitate (sp). The one flaw in the article is the assumption that frame and IP oriented products can NEVER support QoS and TOLL quality voice. If they can, these products are better understood, easier to install, less expensive, can be used at sub-T1 rates without huge cell taxes. AND, they have the benefit of NOT sending short frames (cells in the case of ATM) when no real time voice video is present. ATM can't do this.
Bandwidth to the edge is the mantra. ATM will continue to be there to handle voice and video and provision priority and QoS.
Perhaps, but it's going to be a battle. It should be interesting to see how this all plays out.
But ATM is currently the far more established protocol. And (again)
as applications continue their increasing prioritization and QoS demands, the ATM edge (facilitated by standards such as MPOA) will move onward and outward.
Interesting opinion. I think the ATM vendors wish ATM were a more established protocol. I know I always did. ;) Clearly IP has a huge lead in the enterprise and in ISP's. Point is this my friend:
IF (big IF as I've said before) IP can deliver QoS then IP will win. There's no question about it. ATM's perceived advantage is in delievering QoS to the edge. IP vendors are after this in a big way....if they succeed, providers and users will go IP, end of story.
Could YURI be out of business in say, 4 years? Certainly a possibility, but IMO that would be as speculative as, though far less likely than, it's being taken out at 80+ within that same time frame.
My opinion. YURI get's bought in less than 18 months.... no question about it. If they dwindle into the teens - which looks likely - it may happen sooner and at a far lower price...say 35, perhaps 40. Even so, a nice short term profit no doubt.
In the meantime, I'm looking for over 30 (~50% gain) by summer.
Yeah, we all are........ ;)
I respect your focus on and knowledge of the tech (if not your unprovoked insulting and aggressive posting approach).
??? I'm not sure what prompted that comment. If you're referring to my "conversation" with Teknvestor you may want to note couple of things.
1. I did not instigate that conversation-I merely responded. Go back and take a look.
2. My commentary has always been (with the one notable exception) about YURI, not about the individuals on this thread.
3. Tek and I have forgotten about this and now do have the occasional decent conversation. Perhaps you should let it go as well.
4. I you feel the need to bring this up every time you send me a message....well...... do me a favor, stop sending me messages, that should solve the problem.
Have a good day...and good investing my friend.
Gary |
