Market Snapshot
| Dow | 45757.69 | -125.55 | (-0.27%) | | Nasdaq | 22333.96 | -14.79 | (-0.07%) | | SP 500 | 6606.76 | -8.52 | (-0.13%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1252 | Dec 1480 | Vol 464.92 mln | | Nasdaq | Adv 2257 | Dec 2278 | Vol 6.67 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Communication Services |
| | Weak: Utilities, Real Estate, Financials, Industrials, Materials, Information Technology |
Moving the Market
Modest retreat from fresh record-highs as market awaits Fed meeting developments
Solid retail sales and the nonfuel import price increase in August will temper calls for a 50-basis-point cut.
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Market meanders ahead of FOMC decision
16-Sep-25 16:30 ET
Dow -125.55 at 45757.69, Nasdaq -14.79 at 22333.96, S&P -8.52 at 6606.76
[BRIEFING.COM] After a brief opening jump saw the S&P 500 (-0.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) establish new record highs, the major averages traded slightly lower for the bulk of today's session, finishing just beneath their flatlines.
The S&P 500 captured a new all-time high this morning at 6,626.99, while the Nasdaq Composite followed a similar trajectory, setting a new all-time high of 22,397.50. Meanwhile, the DJIA (-0.3%) lagged the group.
The stock market's meandering disposition reflected a lack of conviction ahead of tomorrow's FOMC decision. With a 25-basis point rate cut fully priced in, the move itself is unlikely to sway markets, though investors will be closely watching the updated Summary of Economic Projections and Fed Chair Powell's press conference for signals on whether additional cuts in October and December remain on the table.
This morning the market learned that Stephen Miran will have a voting seat at the meeting after the Senate confirmed his Fed Governor nomination yesterday evening. Separately, a federal appeals court ruled that Fed Governor Lisa Cook cannot be fired ahead of the meeting, though neither one of these developments is expected to affect the outcome of this week's meeting.
Current rate cut expectations held steady today despite a trove of economic data, which featured a promising Retail Sales report for August (0.6%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%).
As a result, the market moved sideways, with the major averages staying close to their opening levels.
Four S&P 500 sectors finished higher, while six finished lower, and the health care sector finished flat.
The energy sector (+1.7%) led the advancers, supported by crude oil futures settling today's session $1.24 higher (+2.0%) at $64.56 per barrel.
The consumer discretionary sector (+0.8%) was the only other sector to finish with a gain wider than 0.5%. Tesla (TSLA 421.62, +11.58, +2.82%) and Amazon (AMZN 234.05, +2.62, +1.13%) contributed to the advance amid a mixed day of mega-cap performance that saw the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF close with a 0.1% loss.
Elsewhere, the consumer staples (+0.2%) and communication services sectors (+0.3%) finished with more modest gains.
Besides a 1.8% loss in the thinly traded utilities sector, losses were also relatively modest across the board.
Slim breadth figures further indicated the market's "wait and see" disposition today ahead of tomorrow's Fed developments. Decliners outpaced advancers by a roughly 5-to-4 margin on the NYSE and held an advantage of just a few dozen names on the Nasdaq.
While today's corporate headlines were not particularly market-moving, there were still several noteworthy developments. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS 50.86, -3.10, -5.74%) moved lower after receiving a warning letter from the FDA regarding the company's claims concerning its semaglutide products.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD 18.25, -1.21, -6.22%) ceded some of its recent gains after TD Cowen downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy, citing concerns if the proposed acquisition by Paramount Skydance (PSKY 17.53, -1.05, -5.65%) does not come to fruition, according to CNBC.
Oracle (ORCL 306.65, +4.51, +1.49%) captured another nice gain after reports that the company will keep its cloud deal with TikTok under the proposed agreement to bring it under U.S. control. The White House extended the delay of the TikTok ban to December 18, with a call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi set to finalize the deal on Friday.
U.S. Treasuries saw range-bound trading in front of Wednesday's FOMC decision, as buyers and sellers held their fire for the most part. The 2-year note yield settled down two basis points to 3.51%, and the 10-year note yield settled unchanged at 4.03%.
Reviewing today's data:
- August Retail Sales 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.6% from 0.5%, August Retail Sales ex-auto 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%
- The key takeaway from the report is that it reflects a consumer still spending at a good clip. The retail sales data are not adjusted for price changes. Granted, higher prices accounted for some of the increased sales activity in August, but they didn't account for all of it.
- August Import Prices 0.3%; Prior was revised to 0.2% from 0.4%
- August Import Prices ex-oil 0.4%; Prior was revised to 0.0% from 0.3%
- August Export Prices 0.3%; Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.1%
- August Export Prices ex-ag. 0.3%; Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.1%
- August Industrial Production 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%); Prior was revised to -0.4% from -0.1%, August Capacity Utilization 77.4% (Briefing.com consensus 77.4%); Prior was revised to 77.4% from 77.5%
- The key takeaway from the report is that industrial production activity was driven in August by the production of motor vehicles and parts.
- July Business Inventories 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to 0.2% from 0.0%
- September NAHB Housing Market Index 32 (Briefing.com consensus 33); Prior 32
S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite set to challenge record closing highs
16-Sep-25 15:30 ET
Dow -100.22 at 45783.02, Nasdaq +8.19 at 22356.94, S&P -2.32 at 6612.96
[BRIEFING.COM] Although the S&P 500 (-0.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (flat) spent the majority of the day beneath their baselines, steady improvement throughout the afternoon has them positioned to challenge yesterday's all-time closing highs to go along with this morning's record intraday highs.
Market focus now squarely turns to the outcome of the ongoing FOMC meeting, which will be announced tomorrow afternoon with a press conference to follow.
Politico reports that the House has narrowly passed a measure ceding tariff authority to President Trump, which will prevent the House from voting on bills that challenge the president's tariff authority.
Details emerge on proposed TikTok deal
16-Sep-25 15:00 ET
Dow -74.20 at 45809.04, Nasdaq +1.68 at 22350.43, S&P -1.37 at 6613.91
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (flat), Nasdaq Composite (flat), and DJIA (-0.2%) are slightly improved from their earlier losses as the market enters the final hour of trading.
The White House has extended the delay of the imminent TikTok ban until December 18, with a talk between President Trump and Chinese President Xi set to finalize a deal on Friday.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Oracle (ORCL 304.58, +2.44, +0.81%), Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz would control an 80% stake in TikTok's U.S. business, should the deal go through.
Social media titan Meta Platforms (META 773.57, +8.87, +1.16%) is among the best-performing mega-cap stocks today, which, in tandem with a slight gain in Alphabet (GOOG 252.17, +0.41, +0.16%), has lifted the communication services sector (+0.2%) above its flatline.
S&P 500 slips as Emerson, Grainger, Prudential weigh; APA jumps on oil boost
16-Sep-25 14:30 ET
Dow -118.11 at 45765.13, Nasdaq -5.67 at 22343.08, S&P -4.71 at 6610.57
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.07%) is in second place on Tuesday afternoon, down less than 5 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Emerson (EMR 128.31, -7.35, -5.42%), Grainger (GWW 977.89, -34.73, -3.43%), and Prudential (PRU 102.19, -3.26, -3.09%) pepper the bottom of the standings. PRU falls after Wolfe Research started coverage on the name with a Peer Perform.
Meanwhile, APA Corp. (APA 24.95, +2.04, +8.90%) is today's top gainer, helped along by rising crude oil futures.
Gold edges up to $3,725 on Fed cut bets, dollar weakness, and safe-haven demand
16-Sep-25 14:00 ET
Dow -99.26 at 45783.98, Nasdaq -0.71 at 22348.04, S&P -4.56 at 6610.72
[BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq Composite (flat) is down less than a point on Tuesday afternoon, now up about +4.16% month-to-date.
Gold futures settled $6.10 higher (+0.2%) at $3,725.10/oz, with gains driven by Fed rate-cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and ongoing safe-haven demand ahead of this week's policy meeting.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.7% to $96.64.
Ralph Lauren shares off trend after reaffirming FY26 outlook and unveiling updated growth plan (RL)
Ralph Lauren (RL) reaffirmed its FY26 financial targets ahead of its Investor Week, where the company unveiled a refreshed strategic outlook, including a new three-year plan and capital return goals. The reaffirmation of guidance came alongside the introduction of "Next Great Chapter: Drive", RL’s updated growth strategy that builds on its prior transformation efforts. However, the reaffirmation failed to inspire investor enthusiasm, with shares of RL and peers such as VF Corporation (VFC), Tapestry (TPR), Capri Holdings (CPRI), and PVH Corp (PVH), all trending lower following the announcement.
- The reaffirmed FY26 guidance includes a continued focus on delivering long-term revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits on a constant currency basis and operating margin expansion to the high-teens level. In a shareholder-friendly move, the company also announced plans to return at least $2.0 bln through FY28 via cash dividends and share repurchases, underscoring its commitment to balancing investment with capital returns.
- The new “Next Great Chapter: Drive” plan is built around three strategic pillars (Elevate and energize our lifestyle brand/Drive the core and expand for more/Win in key cities with our consumer ecosystem).
- RL plans to double down on brand storytelling, product craftsmanship, and aspirational marketing to further distinguish itself in a crowded luxury and premium apparel space. This includes amplifying its cultural relevance and leveraging iconic heritage elements across more channels and categories. While the RL brand remains globally recognized, the challenge lies in maintaining aspirational appeal while scaling, especially as younger consumers gravitate toward newer, digital-native luxury and streetwear labels.
- In regard to driving the core business, RL aims to deepen loyalty among frequent customers while expanding into underpenetrated categories (e.g., womenswear and home), price tiers, and geographies. Growth in DTC remains a priority, particularly via e-commerce and owned retail stores, which offer margin upside.
- The brand’s urban-market strategy focuses on driving growth in 30 key cities by building fully integrated “ecosystems” that include retail, digital, and experiential touchpoints. RL is investing heavily in localized marketing and data-driven consumer engagement to gain market share in influential metros like New York, London, and Shanghai.
- While this strategy holds promise, headwinds remain significant and are likely weighing on investor sentiment despite the upbeat long-term outlook. Consumers in key markets like the U.S., Europe, and China remain cautious amid inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, and uneven macro recoveries. Furthermore, elevated inventory levels and promotional environments are pressuring margins across the apparel space, with RL needing to carefully balance brand elevation with competitive pricing.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
RL is under pressure after unveiling its new three-year plan and reaffirming FY26 guidance -- a move that, while strategic in intent, appears to have left investors wanting more in terms of near-term catalysts. The “Next Great Chapter: Drive” strategy outlines a thoughtful path forward built on brand elevation, category expansion, and key market dominance. However, execution will be the proving ground. Sluggish global demand, inventory overhangs, and intensifying competition all continue to weigh on the apparel sector.
Ferguson Closes FY25 with Big Earnings Beat and Strong Non-Residential Growth (FERG)
Ferguson (FERG) is trading nicely higher after posting its Q4 (Jul) results this morning. EPS came in well ahead of estimates, while revenue grew 6.9% yr/yr to $8.5 bln, above consensus and its strongest pace in more than two years.
- US sales +7.1%, as non-residential strength offset flat residential performance. Residential (~50% of US sales) stayed pressured by weak new construction, slower permit activity, and soft RMI demand.
- The other half of US revenue was a bright spot, with non-residential growing 15% on large capital projects, including commercial +17%, civil infrastructure +13%, and industrial +5%.
- By customer group: HVAC was slightly lower on efficiency standard changes and weak residential construction; Residential Trade Plumbing -2% on new construction softness and PVC deflation; Ferguson Home (~19% of US sales) +3%. Waterworks +15% and Commercial/Mechanical +21%, both benefitted from strong project activity.
- Fiscal year-end moving to Dec. 31; CY25 guidance calls for mid-single digit revenue growth and operating margin improvement.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
FERG delivered a solid quarter despite an uncertain environment and subdued residential market, benefiting from its multi-customer approach. Most of the upside was driven by non-residential end markets, where large capital projects remain resilient. Looking ahead, management expects to leverage multi-year tailwinds across both residential and non-residential segments, positioning the company for further share gains. FERG could also see incremental benefit if rate cuts stimulate residential construction activity. For now, the company continues to execute well, supported by its diversified model.
Dave & Buster's: Earnings Disappoint, New CEO Sees “Fixable” Problems and Undervalued Shares (PLAY)
Dave & Buster's is under pressure following a disappointing Q2 (Jul) earnings report. Revenue was flat yr/yr at $557.4 mln, missing estimates, while comps fell -3.0%, a sequential improvement from -8.3% in Q1. EPS also came in below expectations, underscoring ongoing operational and strategic challenges.
New CEO Tarun Lal, who took over in July 2025, is wasting no time diagnosing PLAY's issues and plotting a turnaround. With 25+ years at Yum! Brands (YUM) — most recently as President of KFC US — Lal brings deep operational expertise. He views Dave & Buster's as a "category of one" with significant untapped potential, despite what he called a series of "fixable" missteps.
Where PLAY went wrong:
- Marketing misfire: The brand exited TV entirely and diluted its messaging with too many promotions.
- F&B strategy misstep: A shift toward appetizers and away from high-revenue entrees hurt margins.
- Operational misalignment: Fast changes disrupted communication and hurt training.
- Games underinvestment: New game introductions were cut by ~80%, hurting traffic and relevance.
Positive early changes under Lal:
- TV ads are back, with more focused promotions.
- Stronger food strategy led to higher attach rates via the Eat & Play Combo and improved entrée positioning.
- 10 new game titles introduced in 2025 to refresh the arcade experience.
- Training and corporate-field communication have been rebuilt.
- International expansion is underway, with a second franchise opened in India and five more openings planned.
CEO Outlook: Lal made bold comments on valuation, calling the stock "extremely undervalued" relative to peers. He cited PLAY's strong brand equity, cash flow generation, and long-term economics as key strengths. His own compensation package is tied directly to stock performance, aligning his incentives with shareholders.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
While Q2 results were weak, new leadership is actively addressing past missteps. If Lal can execute, PLAY may have a credible path to a turnaround — but it remains a show-me story for now.
Intel trims FY25 expense forecast after Altera sale amid restructuring push (INTC)
Intel (INTC) is moving sharply higher after the company disclosed in an SEC filing that it now expects FY25 adjusted operating expenses to be $16.8 bln, down from its prior forecast of $17.0 bln. The improved expense outlook follows INTC’s completed sale of its majority stake in Altera -- its programmable chip unit -- on September 12. The move is being viewed positively by investors as a tangible step in INTC’s broader strategy to streamline operations, bolster liquidity, and remain disciplined with cost controls amid a still-challenging competitive landscape.
- The update comes with further reassurance for investors: INTC reaffirmed its 2026 non-GAAP operating expense target of $16.0 bln. That reaffirmation signals the company’s continued focus on cost discipline and lends credibility to its multi-year turnaround strategy, especially as it looks to reduce spending while simultaneously investing in strategic growth areas such as AI, foundry services, and next-gen chip design.
- The divestiture of Altera, which generated $816 mln in revenue during 1H25, is part of INTC’s broader realignment to sharpen its core focus and free up capital. Management appears committed to streamlining the business in order to better compete against more agile and higher-growth rivals. Although Altera contributed meaningful revenue, its sale aligns with INTC’s strategy to concentrate resources on its most promising, scalable segments.
- Still, INTC faces major challenges ahead. Most notably, the company’s loss-generating Foundry business remains a long-term project that has yet to prove it can achieve the kind of scale and profitability enjoyed by global leaders like Taiwan Semiconductor.
- Meanwhile, competitive pressure is intensifying: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NVIDIA (NVDA) continue to widen their technological lead, especially in AI-accelerated computing, while Qualcomm (QCOM) is gaining ground in the PC and laptop markets with new ARM-based chipsets that threaten Intel’s x86 dominance.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
INTC is catching a tailwind today after trimming its FY25 expense forecast and reaffirming its 2026 cost-reduction target -- a move that supports the bull case for INTC’s ongoing turnaround. The sale of its majority stake in Altera helps shore up cash and streamline the business, signaling continued strategic discipline. However, the road ahead remains steep. INTC still needs to prove it can revive its foundry ambitions, regain CPU share from AMD, and hold off QCOM’s push into client computing. The company is taking steps in the right direction, but execution will be critical in the quarters to come.
Hain Celestial Slumps After Surprise Q4 Loss, Sharp Revenue Drop and Lack of Guidance (HAIN)
Hain Celestial (HAIN) is under heavy pressure today after reporting Q4 (Jun) results that badly missed expectations. The food and wellness company posted an adjusted net loss of $0.02/share compared to a profit of $0.13/share last year, while revenue fell 13.4% yr/yr to $363 mln, marking one of its steepest quarterly declines in recent years.
- The shortfall was broad-based, with North America organic net sales down 14% on snack velocity challenges and distribution losses, while International fell 6% amid softness in baby food and unusually warm weather that hurt soup sales.
- Gross margin compressed 290 bps yr/yr to 20.5%, pressured by weaker volume mix, inflation, and higher trade spend.
- New leadership is pursuing a turnaround with 12% SG&A cuts, SKU rationalization, and exits from underperforming categories like meat-free in North America. A Goldman Sachs-led strategic review could also result in asset sales.
- The company is also revamping its innovation pipeline and rolling out pricing actions across most categories, with new product launches in snacks, tea, yogurt, and soups aimed at reigniting growth.
- With the review ongoing, HAIN withheld FY26 guidance but expects Q1 sales/EBITDA to mirror Q4's weak levels, before stronger 2H performance on cost actions and portfolio streamlining. Management emphasized its goal of positive free cash flow in FY26.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
This was another tough quarter for Hain Celestial, as the surprise loss, sharp revenue decline, and lack of concrete guidance have spooked investors. While new leadership is pushing bold restructuring efforts, including cost cuts and portfolio simplification, the turnaround faces significant execution risk and will likely take time to bear fruit. More broadly, the stock has been in a multiyear downtrend since late 2021, underscoring persistent doubts about HAIN's ability to stabilize its brands, regain market share, and reignite sustainable growth.
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