NAND and DRAM prices surge by up to 20% — contract price increases driven by AI demands and tight supply
tomshardware.com
Contract prices for both NAND and DRAM have jumped by an estimated 15-20% in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to numbers published by DigiTimes on September 17, an off-season surge the publication ties directly to AI infrastructure build-outs and supply tightness.
“Supply shortages led to aggressive procurement from cloud service providers, with high-stack 3D NAND products nearly sold out,” writes DigiTimes, adding that, “3D NAND… has attracted strong priority purchasing interest from CSP customers,” citing demand for faster read speed and larger die capacities. This is a stark difference from the normal Q4 pattern, when component prices typically drift lower.
There are signs that the supply side is tightening. TrendForce says SanDisk pushed for a roughly 10% NAND hike in September, while Micron temporarily suspended DRAM and NAND price quotations to reassess allocations after customer forecasts pointed to shortages. The firm also flags a structural shortage in nearline HDDs that is forcing hyperscalers to accelerate plans for QLC SSD deployments in 2026.
DigiTimes goes further, saying Samsung’s next-gen V9 NAND for 2026 is “nearly sold out”, with cloud customers locking in capacity early due to its improved density and cost advantages. A separate TrendForce brief from this week, however, says Samsung has delayed V9 QLC to the first half of 2026, which suggests customers may be reserving capacity ahead of firm volume timing. Either way, it’s clear to see that cloud buyers are aggressively securing supply well into the future.
This could easily have a knock-on effect on consumer prices. If hyperscalers are absorbing more wafers for enterprise SSDs while DRAM makers prioritize server parts and HBM, retail pricing is going to lose some of its slack. TrendForce has already warned that legacy DRAM types remain under the most pressure as capacity is reallocated, and if cloud orders continue to rise, the familiar winter bargains on NVMe drives could be thinner than expected.
One tell that money is switching hands is controller specialist Phison’s record August figures. It reported a revenue of NT$5.934 billion, up 23% year over year. That’s a dramatic jump from last year’s weak base. The company has attributed the strength to non-consumer demand and closer tie-ups with NAND makers, which fits the broader theme of data-center-led flash tightness.
The bottom line is that multiple data points now converge on a common theme: AI is rewriting cloud storage hierarchy while HDD supply is constrained and flash makers have more pricing power than they usually do in the year’s final quarter. If you’re planning an upgrade, watch retail memory prices closely and move quickly when a good price pops up, because it probably won’t stick around for long. |
