Market Snapshot
| Dow | 46018.11 | +260.42 | (0.57%) | | Nasdaq | 22261.33 | -72.63 | (-0.33%) | | SP 500 | 6600.34 | -6.42 | (-0.10%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1369 | Dec 1358 | Vol 1.28 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 2172 | Dec 2409 | Vol 9.39 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Consumer Staples, Utilities, Health Care, Financials, Materials, Real Estate, Communication Services |
| | Weak: Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Communication Services, Real Estate |
Moving the Market
Major averages mixed following FOMC decision, with the broader market showing strength but weakness in several mega-cap names
NVIDIA trades lower following a report that China has ordered its companies to stop purchasing NVIDIA chips
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Stocks finish mixed as Fed cuts rates, signals measured path ahead
17-Sep-25 16:35 ET
Dow +260.42 at 46018.11, Nasdaq -72.63 at 22261.33, S&P -6.42 at 6600.34
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market saw mixed action today leading up to and in response to the FOMC's decision to cut the Fed funds rate target range by 25 basis points, with mega-cap weakness stifling index-level growth despite broader strength.
If someone had taken a glance at the market just after the open and then logged off until the close, they would assume that an uneventful session had taken place, as the major averages finished similar to how they started.
Barring a pocket of increased volatility that followed the FOMC announcement, that assumption would be largely correct. The initial spike in reaction to the announcement, however, sent the DJIA (+0.6%) to a new all-time high level of 46,261.95 and brought the S&P 500 (-0.1%) within three points of its own record high. Even the Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) climbed back to its flatline before a sharp sell-off sent the major averages to session lows.
While today's decision brought about a short period of volatility, the 25-basis point cut had been fully priced in for some time. Market participants were arguably more eager to see how the results of the FOMC meeting would shape expectations for further easing.
Officials remain split on the number of additional cuts this year, with nine of the 19 participants projecting just one more, ten favoring two, and one signaling no further cuts at all.
Despite differing opinions on the number of rate cuts the market will receive this year, today's meeting still increased the probability of their happening.
The CME FedWatch tool now assigns an 89.9% probability of at least a 25-basis point rate cut at the October 29 FOMC meeting, up from 78.2% yesterday. Similarly, the odds of an even further rate cut of at least 25 basis points at the December 10 meeting now stand at 83.9%, up from 72.8% yesterday.
While rate cut expectations through the end of the year at least temporarily solidified, sentiments have shifted about further easing in 2026. The 2026 median projection sees only one rate cut in 2026 versus the three rate cuts that had been priced into the Fed funds futures market.
Ultimately, the market took all of these developments in stride, shaking off the afternoon volatility and finishing in a familiar mixed fashion.
The information technology (-0.7%), industrials (-0.5%), consumer discretionary (-0.3%), communication services (-0.1%), and real estate (-0.1%) sectors finished lower, with mega-cap names coming under pressure for the duration of the day. NVIDIA (NVDA 170.29, -4.59, -2.62%) had a particularly rough session as the Financial Times reported the Chinese government has asked domestic companies to stop purchasing NVIDIA's products.
The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished with a 0.4% loss, and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+0.1%) outperformed the market-weighted S&P 500 (-0.1%), though by a substantially slimmer margin than earlier levels.
Smaller-cap names outside of the S&P 500 also saw some of their strength eroded following the FOMC announcement, as the Russell 2000 (+0.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.2%) both finished well beneath session highs that saw the indices hold earlier gains wider than 1.0%.
Elsewhere, the financials (+1.0%) and consumer staples (+0.9%) were the top beneficiaries of today's action, while four other sectors closed with more modest gains.
Separately, StubHub Holdings (STUB 22.00, -1.50, -6.38%) drew solid interest, pricing at $23.50 vs. the $22-$25 expected range and opening for trading with an 8% gain at $25.35, before finishing the day on a lackluster note at beneath its offering price.
While the Fed confirmed more easing is on the horizon, the pace beyond this year remains in doubt, ensuring monetary policy will stay a central driver of market action into year-end.
U.S. Treasuries endured some midweek volatility surrounding the expected FOMC rate cut announcement before ending the session at their lowest levels of the day. The 2-year note yield settled up four basis points to 3.55%, and the 10-year note yield settled up five basis points to 4.08%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +15.3% YTD
- S&P 500: +12.2% YTD
- DJIA: +8.2% YTD
- Russell 2000: +8.0% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: + 4.7% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- Total housing starts declined 8.5% month-over-month in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.307 million (Briefing.com consensus: 1.375 million) from a revised 1.429 million (from 1.428 million) in July. Building permits declined 3.7% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.312 million (Briefing.com consensus: 1.370 million) from an unrevised 1.362 million in July.
- The key takeaway from the report is the weakness in single-unit starts (-7.0% month-over-month) and single-unit permits (-2.2%), which is a reflection of affordability constraints for builders and prospective homeowners alike. Strikingly, single-unit starts in the South—the nation's largest homebuilding region—plunged 17.0% in August.
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Index jumped 29.7% to follow last week's 9.2% increase. The Refinance Index spiked 57.7% while the Purchase Index was up 2.9%.
Major averages off of session lows just before the close
17-Sep-25 15:30 ET
Dow +285.70 at 46043.39, Nasdaq -25.71 at 22308.25, S&P +2.65 at 6609.41
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (flat), Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%), and DJIA (+0.6%) are off of their session lows, as the broader market appears to be shaking off some of the post-FOMC decision volatility.
Fed Chair Powell's press conference has proven to be soothing to the market, with particular focus on softening labor conditions bolstering expectations of further cuts to the Fed funds rate this year.
Mr. Powell noted, "If you weigh the two goals, the risks to inflation are slightly less than before given the softening in the labor market," though he also stated that the FOMC is in a "meeting-by-meeting situation in assessing the policy path."
The communication services sector (+0.2%) has surfaced above its flatline, supporting the index-level move off of session lows. Alphabet (GOOG 250.53, -0.89, -0.35%) now holds just a modest loss after announcing a multiyear strategic partnership focused on advancing several commerce solutions with PayPal (PYPL 68.33, +1.48, +2.21%).
Market moves lower following FOMC decision
17-Sep-25 15:00 ET
Dow +144.50 at 45902.19, Nasdaq -139.12 at 22194.84, S&P -16.34 at 6590.42
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.5%) has widened its loss for the day after a spike following the FOMC's decision to cut the target range for the fed funds rate saw the index briefly enter positive territory and come within three points of its all-time high (6,626.99).
Losses have also widened in the Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%), and while the DJIA (+0.2%) established a new all-time high in the aftermath, it now trades at session lows.
Breadth figures have worsened following the announcement of the FOMC decision. Advancers outpaced decliners by a greater than 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE earlier in the session, but decliners now hold a roughly 7-to-6 edge, while advancers still hold a slim 4-to-3 advantage on the Nasdaq.
As a result, smaller cap indices have given up much of their earlier gains. The Russell 2000 now holds a 0.5% gain, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.1%) moved beneath its flatline.
Volatile response to FOMC decision
17-Sep-25 14:30 ET
Dow +388.72 at 46146.41, Nasdaq -105.31 at 22228.65, S&P -3.40 at 6603.36
[BRIEFING.COM] The FOMC decision is out, and it is a memorable one. As expected, the FOMC voted to cut the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25%. It was not a unanimous vote, which was also expected. The surprise, arguably, is that there was only one dissent.
The dissent was registered by newly appointed Fed Governor Miran, who preferred to cut by 50 basis points at this meeting.
The initial reaction to the decision was decidedly positive, as the directive noted that the Committee is attentive to both sides of its dual mandate [but] judges that downside risks to employment have risen. The connection is that the downside risk to employment was highlighted as opposed to an upside risk for inflation.
The knee-jerk gains, however, were quickly wiped away in some typical post-decision volatility. The catalyst for the reversal, ostensibly, was the recognition in the Summary of Economic Projections that (a) it is still a close call for two more cuts this year, with nine of the 19 participants projecting only one more rate cut this year, 10 participants seeing two, and one official who did not want rates cut at all and (b) that the 2026 median projection sees only one rate cut in 2026 versus the three rate cuts that had been priced into the fed funds futures market.
There is a lot of territory to cover still between now and the end of the session, with Fed Chair Powell's press conference on tap at 2:30 p.m. ET. What he says, and how he says it, will likely dictate where things settle today for better or worse.
The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.49%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.00%.
Gold slips as traders await Fed decision; dollar, yields cap gains
17-Sep-25 14:00 ET
Dow +258.70 at 46016.39, Nasdaq -100.16 at 22233.80, S&P -7.80 at 6598.96
[BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours to go on Wednesday the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.45%) is in last place, down about 100 points.
Gold futures settled $7.30 lower (-0.2%) at $3,717.80/oz, as traders took profits and positioned cautiously ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, with a firmer dollar and steady yields adding mild pressure.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is now up about +0.1% to $96.72.
Lyft surges on Waymo robotaxi expansion to Nashville; deal narrows AV gap with Uber (LYFT)
Lyft (LYFT) shares are accelerating higher on news of a partnership with Alphabet's (GOOG) Waymo to launch fully autonomous ride-hailing in Nashville by 2026. The move helps close the competitive gap with Uber (UBER), which already operates Waymo robotaxis in Austin and Atlanta. Under the agreement, customers will initially hail Waymo autonomous vehicles via the Waymo app, with integration into LYFT’s platform expected later in 2026.
- LYFT’s Flexdrive unit will manage fleet operations for Waymo’s AVs in Nashville, providing maintenance, logistics, and support infrastructure.
- The partnership adds momentum to LYFT’s broader autonomous vehicle push. In July, LYFT acquired European ride-hailing platform FREENOW, gaining access to 180 cities and 6.3 mln users.
- LYFT recently announced a separate partnership with Baidu (BIDU) to deploy its Apollo Go robotaxis across key European cities using LYFT’s expanded network via FREENOW.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
Lyft is finally moving more aggressively into autonomous mobility, and this Waymo expansion is a critical step toward competitive parity with UBER. While UBER had an early lead through deeper Waymo integration, LYFT’s dual-pronged strategy -- with Waymo in the U.S. and BIDU in Europe -- gives it a global runway for AV scaling. The use of Flexdrive for fleet management adds vertical integration that could prove operationally and financially advantageous.
Still, questions remain. LYFT’s delayed platform integration (post-2026) and limited AV exposure to date mean execution risk is high. But for now, the market is rewarding LYFT’s bold moves in the robotaxi race -- especially as UBER trades lower on investor concern over potential share loss in Nashville.
General Mills modestly lower despite Q1 EPS beat; back-half recovery remains a show-me story (GIS)
General Mills (GIS) is trading modestly lower following a lackluster Q1 (Aug) report. The company delivered a narrow EPS beat while revenue declined 6.8% yr/yr to $4.52 bln, its steepest drop in four years, merely meeting expectations. Guidance for FY26 was reaffirmed.
- Earnings and profitability remained under pressure: adjusted gross margin fell 120 bps to 34.2%, operating margin declined 210 bps to 15.7%, and EPS slipped 20%.
- Organic net sales declined 3% yr/yr, flat sequentially, reflecting unfavorable price/mix tied to price investments and trade expense timing.
- Segment trends: North America Retail organic sales fell 5% (improved from -7% in Q4), weighed by price/mix; volumes declined 1%. Pet segment organic sales fell 5%, lagging retail sales due to shipment timing, though reported growth of 6% included an 11-pt lift from Whitebridge acquisition. International was a bright spot, with organic sales up 4% on strength in India, North Asia, and Europe.
- Growth strategy gaining some traction: share holds or gains in 8 of top 10 US categories; new product volumes up 25%. Management expects margin/profitability pressure to persist in Q2, with improvement in 2H, particularly in Q4.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
GIS continues to face volume pressure, cost inflation, and margin compression, and with results largely in line with expectations, there was little to excite investors even as management highlighted progress on brand health and innovation. North America Retail showed modest sequential improvement, and new product launches are off to a strong start, but volumes still slipped and haven't yet validated the strategy. Focus now rests heavily on a back-half recovery, particularly margin improvement. Until GIS demonstrates that innovation and price investments can translate into sustainable volume-driven growth, investors are likely to remain in wait-and-see mode.
MSC Industrial Eyes Recovery as Core SMB Customers Show Signs of Life Ahead of Q4 Earnings (MSM)
MSC Industrial Supply (MSM) seems like it is quietly turning a corner after a prolonged industrial slowdown. With signs of stabilization emerging in its core markets, we wanted to flag the name ahead of its Q4 (Aug) report next month.
- In July, MSM reported Q3 (May) revenue dipped just 0.8% yr/yr to $971.1 mln, marking the best top-line performance in five quarters.
- Core SMB customers (~50% of sales) showed the strongest sequential improvement — a notable shift after years of underperformance.
- ADS declined 0.8% yr/yr in Q3, but jumped 7% sequentially, far outpacing typical seasonal trends.
- Q4 ADS guidance of -0.5% to +1.5% was better than expected, hinting at further stabilization.
- Gross margin hit the high end of guidance, supporting a 190 bps sequential improvement in adjusted operating margin to 9.0%.
- MSM raised prices again post-quarter, following a successful March hike that delivered favorable price/cost dynamics.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
While MSM's end markets (auto, fabricated metals) remain sluggish, management's increasingly upbeat tone stands out after nearly two years of industrial malaise. The resurgence in its high-margin SMB base and stronger finish to Q3 are encouraging. It's not a breakout yet — but MSM is setting up as a potential early-cycle recovery story. One to watch heading into the AugQ print. The stock has been trending higher.
NVIDIA faces China chip ban amid antitrust probe, but AI demand remains robust (NVDA)
China’s internet watchdog, the Cyberspace Administration of China, has ordered leading domestic tech firms -- including ByteDance and Alibaba (BABA) -- to halt purchases of NVIDIA’s (NVDA) AI chips (including its new RTX6000D) and cancel existing orders, per reporting from Financial Times. The directive follows China’s accusation that NVDA violated the country’s anti-monopoly law. This marks a significant escalation in China’s push to reduce reliance on U.S. technology and raises concerns about NVDA’s access to one of its historically important markets.
- NVDA’s RTX6000D chip, designed to meet U.S. export rules, has seen limited demand in China despite localization efforts.
- CEO Jensen Huang expressed disappointment, noting NVDA “can only be in service of a market if the country wants us to be,” underscoring the company’s limited options amid rising geopolitical strain.
- China made up 13% of revenue in FY25, falling to 9% in 1H26. No H20 chip sales were recorded in Q2, and none are expected in Q3. The impact is notable but manageable.
- NVDA’s AI momentum remains strong globally. Data Center revenue rose 56% yr/yr in 2Q26, with Blackwell platform sales up 17% sequentially.
Key catalysts for Blackwell growth include:
- Expanding demand from hyperscalers building next-gen AI training clusters.
- Increasing adoption by sovereign AI initiatives and large enterprises globally.
- Superior performance-per-watt and total cost of ownership metrics versus prior-generation chips.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
While the China news is clearly a headline risk and could limit NVDA’s near-term TAM, the broader picture remains resilient. The demand backdrop for AI infrastructure -- driven by training LLMs, enterprise AI adoption, and sovereign buildouts -- is still robust. That said, the declining China contribution, from 13% to 9%, and lack of visibility into future regulatory actions present a persistent overhang. Blackwell’s ramp and enterprise penetration are doing the heavy lifting for now, but longer-term, NVDA’s diversification beyond U.S. and hyperscaler customers will be critical to sustaining its premium valuation.
Ralph Lauren shares off trend after reaffirming FY26 outlook and unveiling updated growth plan (RL)
Ralph Lauren (RL) reaffirmed its FY26 financial targets ahead of its Investor Week, where the company unveiled a refreshed strategic outlook, including a new three-year plan and capital return goals. The reaffirmation of guidance came alongside the introduction of "Next Great Chapter: Drive", RL’s updated growth strategy that builds on its prior transformation efforts. However, the reaffirmation failed to inspire investor enthusiasm, with shares of RL and peers such as VF Corporation (VFC), Tapestry (TPR), Capri Holdings (CPRI), and PVH Corp (PVH), all trending lower following the announcement.
- The reaffirmed FY26 guidance includes a continued focus on delivering long-term revenue growth in the mid-to-high single digits on a constant currency basis and operating margin expansion to the high-teens level. In a shareholder-friendly move, the company also announced plans to return at least $2.0 bln through FY28 via cash dividends and share repurchases, underscoring its commitment to balancing investment with capital returns.
- The new “Next Great Chapter: Drive” plan is built around three strategic pillars (Elevate and energize our lifestyle brand/Drive the core and expand for more/Win in key cities with our consumer ecosystem).
- RL plans to double down on brand storytelling, product craftsmanship, and aspirational marketing to further distinguish itself in a crowded luxury and premium apparel space. This includes amplifying its cultural relevance and leveraging iconic heritage elements across more channels and categories. While the RL brand remains globally recognized, the challenge lies in maintaining aspirational appeal while scaling, especially as younger consumers gravitate toward newer, digital-native luxury and streetwear labels.
- In regard to driving the core business, RL aims to deepen loyalty among frequent customers while expanding into underpenetrated categories (e.g., womenswear and home), price tiers, and geographies. Growth in DTC remains a priority, particularly via e-commerce and owned retail stores, which offer margin upside.
- The brand’s urban-market strategy focuses on driving growth in 30 key cities by building fully integrated “ecosystems” that include retail, digital, and experiential touchpoints. RL is investing heavily in localized marketing and data-driven consumer engagement to gain market share in influential metros like New York, London, and Shanghai.
- While this strategy holds promise, headwinds remain significant and are likely weighing on investor sentiment despite the upbeat long-term outlook. Consumers in key markets like the U.S., Europe, and China remain cautious amid inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, and uneven macro recoveries. Furthermore, elevated inventory levels and promotional environments are pressuring margins across the apparel space, with RL needing to carefully balance brand elevation with competitive pricing.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
RL is under pressure after unveiling its new three-year plan and reaffirming FY26 guidance -- a move that, while strategic in intent, appears to have left investors wanting more in terms of near-term catalysts. The “Next Great Chapter: Drive” strategy outlines a thoughtful path forward built on brand elevation, category expansion, and key market dominance. However, execution will be the proving ground. Sluggish global demand, inventory overhangs, and intensifying competition all continue to weigh on the apparel sector.
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