| | | Market Snapshot
| Dow | 46142.21 | +124.10 | (0.27%) | | Nasdaq | 22470.73 | +209.40 | (0.94%) | | SP 500 | 6631.95 | +31.61 | (0.48%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1787 | Dec 951 | Vol 1.18 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 3270 | Dec 1317 | Vol 10.57 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Information Technology, Industrials |
| | Weak: Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Materials |
Moving the Market
Market optimistic on the strong probability of October and December rate cuts following yesterday's FOMC meeting
Big tech trading higher today, with Intel rallying after a $5 billion equity investment by NVIDIA
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Major averages and small caps set records amid Fed easing optimism
18-Sep-25 16:30 ET
Dow +124.10 at 46142.21, Nasdaq +209.40 at 22470.73, S&P +31.61 at 6631.95
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market's first full session after yesterday's FOMC meeting saw the S&P 500 (+0.5%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%), and DJIA (+0.3%) capture record intraday and closing highs on relatively broad strength and big tech outperformance.
Perhaps even more notably, optimism around further policy easing from the Fed also propelled the Russell 2000 (+2.5%) past its record intraday high from November 2024 and its record closing high from November 2021. The S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.3%) also notched a healthy gain.
Market participants were presumably enthused by heightened probabilities of additional rate cuts in October and December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point cut to 3.75-4.00% at the October FOMC meeting is 91.9%, versus 78.2% shortly before yesterday's announcement, while the probability of another 25 basis point cut to 3.50-3.75% at the December FOMC meeting is 82.3%, versus 72.8% shortly before yesterday's announcement.
Mega-cap tech helped pace the broader advance after rebounding from yesterday's drag on index-level performance. NVIDIA (NVDA 176.24, +5.95, +3.49%) reclaimed its 50-day moving average (175.28), while Intel (INTC 32.07, +7.17, +28.79%) surged after announcing that NVIDIA will take a $5 billion equity stake in the company as part of a multi-year collaboration to co-develop custom data center and PC products.
The PHLX Semiconductor Index ended the day with a 3.6% gain, while the broader information technology sector (+1.3%) finished as the top-performing S&P 500 sector.
The industrials sector (+1.1%) also outperformed, while five other sectors finished with more modest gains.
Sector performance fluctuated through the session, but losses were limited, with only the consumer staples (-1.0%) and consumer discretionary (-0.5%) sectors finishing with losses of 0.5% or wider.
Broader market strength saw the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+0.7%) outperform the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.5%), though mega-cap names still contributed to today's advance, with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF closing with a 0.5% gain.
Advancers outpaced decliners by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a roughly 8-to-3 clip on the Nasdaq.
Companies that reported earnings this morning were among the names in decline, with Darden Restaurants (DRI 192.74, -16.05, -7.69%) and Cracker Barrel's (CBRL 45.80, -3.79, -7.64%) earnings misses weighing on other fast casual dining names, while FactSet (FDS 301.05, -34.99, -10.41%) dragged down its peer S&P Global (SPGI 507.84, -36.26, -6.67%) with a miss of its own.
U.S. Treasuries followed yesterday's post-FOMC retreat with a modestly higher start that faced resistance immediately after the open with solid economic data contributing to the early selling. Weekly Initial Claims dropped from their highest level since mid-2023, while the Philadelphia Fed Survey (23.2; Briefing.com consensus 3.0) showed an acceleration in manufacturing activity.
The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.57%, and the 10-year note yield settled up three basis points to 4.10%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +16.4% YTD
- S&P 500: +12.8% YTD
- Russell 2000: +10.7% YTD
- DJIA: +8.5% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +6.0% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 decreased by 33,000 to 231,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 245,000) following an upwardly revised 264,000 (from 263,000) in the prior week. Continuing jobless claims for the week ending September 6 decreased by 7,000 to 1.920 million.
- The key takeaway from the report is that initial claims settled back from what appeared to be an aberrantly high level in the prior week, returning to an area that is more consistent with a job market where layoff activity is relatively low.
- The Philadelphia Fed Index surged to 23.2 for September (Briefing.com consensus: 3.0) from -0.3 in August, with the new orders index climbing to 12.4 from -1.9 and the prices paid index dropping to 46.8 from 66.8. The dividing line between expansion and contraction for this report is 0.0, so the September reading represents an acceleration in manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed region.
- The key takeaway from the report is found in the welcome combination of stronger growth and fading prices.
- Conference Board's Leading Economic Index was down 0.5% in August (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) after a revised 0.1% increase (from -0.1%) in July.
Homebuilders see just modest growth post FOMC decision
18-Sep-25 15:30 ET
Dow +124.98 at 46143.09, Nasdaq +220.71 at 22482.04, S&P +35.61 at 6635.95
[BRIEFING.COM] As the market enters the final half hour of trading, the major averages sit well positioned to challenge their respective record closing highs.
The market will receive the earnings reports of Lennar (LEN 132.41, -0.56, -0.42%) and FedEx (FDX 225.96, +0.18, +0.08%) after the close today.
Lennar in particular will garner some attention, as it is the first major homebuilder to report after the Fed's rate cut yesterday.
The focus will be on Q4 guidance and commentary around pricing power and incentive trends. Gross margin commentary may offer a bullish offset if LEN signals that recent Fed rate cuts are translating into stronger demand without the need for aggressive discounting. While recent financial performance has been uneven, improving fundamentals and lower rate expectations could set the stage for stronger execution in the back half of the year.
The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF is up a modest 0.1% today.
Major averages eye record closes amid broad strength, tech outperformance
18-Sep-25 15:05 ET
Dow +174.20 at 46192.31, Nasdaq +244.09 at 22505.42, S&P +40.39 at 6640.73
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.1%), and DJIA (+0.4%) look to capture record closing highs to go along with their all-time highs from earlier in the session.
The major averages continue to benefit from outperformance in the information technology sector (+1.4%), though broad-based strength has eight S&P 500 sectors trading above their baselines.
Advancers outpace decliners by a nearly 2-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and an even greater 5-to-2 clip on the Nasdaq.
NVIDIA (NVDA 176.77, +6.48, +3.81%) commits £2 billion to catalyze the U.K.'s AI startup ecosystem and accelerate the creation of new companies, jobs, and globally transformative AI businesses.
S&P 500 rises as KLAC, AMAT lead tech gains; SPGI sinks on FactSet drag
18-Sep-25 14:30 ET
Dow +144.14 at 46162.25, Nasdaq +232.35 at 22493.68, S&P +36.77 at 6637.11
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.56%) is in second place on Thursday afternoon.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents KLA Corporation (KLAC 1051.65, +61.78, +6.24%), Applied Materials (AMAT 188.94, +10.81, +6.07%), and Allstate (ALL 207.04, +9.79, +4.96%) pepper the top of the standings. Large cap tech, including KLAC and AMAT, are driving today's gains in the S&P, while ALL rises following this morning's news of $213 mln in estimated catastrophe losses for month of August.
Meanwhile, S&P Global (SPGI 509.96, -34.14, -6.27%) is one of the worst three performers today, down in sympathy on FactSet (FDS 306.35, -29.69, -8.84%) results and guidance.
Gold pulls back from record highs as Fed’s cautious cut boosts dollar
18-Sep-25 14:00 ET
Dow +180.96 at 46199.07, Nasdaq +235.08 at 22496.41, S&P +38.91 at 6639.25
[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+1.06%) is in first place on Thursday afternoon, up 235 points as we approach two hours left on the session.
Gold futures settled $39.50 lower (-1.1%) at $3,678.30/oz, as traders took profits after record highs and the dollar strengthened following the Fed's cautious rate-cut messaging. While the central bank delivered a 25 bps cut, Chair Powell stressed inflation risks and a gradual approach, tempering hopes for aggressive easing and sparking a corrective pullback.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up about +0.3% to $97.34.
Nucor falls after weak Q3 EPS guidance amid steel mill margin pressure (NUE)
Nucor (NUE) issued downside Q3 EPS guidance last night, sending shares sharply lower in early trading. The weak outlook stands in contrast to peer Steel Dynamics (STLD), which raised its Q3 EPS guidance just one day earlier. NUE expects Q3 earnings to decline across all three operating segments: steel mills, steel products, and raw materials.
- The steel mills segment, typically NUE’s largest earnings contributor, is facing both lower volumes and margin compression, driven by weaker pricing and soft demand in nonresidential construction.
- The company also cited a slowdown in shipments and persistent cost pressures in its downstream businesses.
- By contrast, STLD is benefiting from stronger pricing power and higher utilization rates, particularly in value-added flat-roll products and automotive-related demand.
- STLD's diversified end-market exposure and operational efficiency appear to be shielding it from the pressures impacting NUE.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
NUE’s disappointing Q3 outlook raises concerns about the durability of its margins in a softening demand environment. The sharp contrast with STLD -- whose raised guidance suggests stronger execution and more favorable mix --highlights growing divergence in steel sector performance.
While NUE remains a best-in-class operator with a strong balance sheet, this quarter underscores the cyclical risks tied to its core steel mills business. Until pricing and volumes stabilize, particularly in construction-linked segments, we view the stock as challenged in the near term.
Cracker Barrel lower on Q4 Results, Rebrand Fallout Pressures Traffic (CBRL)
Cracker Barrel (CBRL) is trading lower today after reporting its Q4 (Jul) results. The Old Country Store missed EPS expectations and was its largest miss in seven quarters. Revenue was slightly above consensus estimates at $868 mln but declined 2.9% yr/yr. FY26 guidance was light, with revenue below consensus and traffic projected to fall 4-7%.
- Restaurant comps of +5.4% (+1% in Q3) marked its fifth consecutive quarter of positive comp growth, though it was almost entirely driven by pricing. Retail comps fell -0.8% (-3.8% in Q3).
- Management quantified the impact of its controversial rebrand in late August. Before the logo change, traffic was down just 1%; since then, traffic has dropped 8%. Q1 traffic is expected to decline 7-8%, with improvement weighted toward the back half of FY26.
- The company is shifting back to its heritage and leaning heavily into its guest experience in an effort to restore traffic.
- CBRL also announced a new $100 mln share repurchase program, perhaps seeing some value in the stock as it works on its turnaround efforts.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
The Q4 EPS miss and weak traffic outlook underscore the uphill battle Cracker Barrel faces. The rebrand misstep triggered a sharp drop in near-term traffic, and while management is guiding to improvement later in FY26, comps remain heavily reliant on pricing rather than guest count. The new buyback reflects confidence in the turnaround, but consistent traffic recovery and stronger execution will be key to restoring sentiment.
Darden Restaurants Q1 results: Olive Garden Shines, Beef Costs Bite EPS (DRI)
Darden is trading lower after missing EPS expectations for Q1 (Aug), despite posting in-line revenue and reaffirming FY26 EPS guidance. The company also slightly raised its FY26 revenue outlook and nudged comp guidance higher to +2.5--3.5% (from +2.0-3.5%), a modest but reassuring signal given Darden's typically conservative tone.
- Q1 consolidated comps rose +4.7% yr/yr, outperforming internal expectations and marking back-to-back solid quarters (Q4 comps were +4.6%). Olive Garden (OG): +5.9% LongHorn Steakhouse (LS): +5.5% Fine Dining: -0.2% Other: +3.3%.
- OG drove strong results with compelling new menu items and delivery expansion via Uber Direct. The "Create Your Own Pasta" platform and a new LTO (e.g., Calabrian Steak and Shrimp Bucatini) were standouts.
- Value is very popular these days and OG began testing a lighter portion section of the menu, featuring seven entrees with reduced portions and reduced prices.
- LS delivered strong comps but is facing a sharp rise in beef costs. Management noted value options are being tested more at OG for now.
- EPS miss was primarily tied to inflationary pressure, especially on beef.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
The EPS miss stings, especially with rising costs weighing on margins, but comps were notably strong for the second straight quarter. Olive Garden is executing well on value and menu innovation — finally adding spicier items — and Uber Direct is helping reach younger, higher-income diners. While this quarter doesn't clear the bar, the maintained EPS guide and raised revenue outlook suggest underlying health. That said, this report may increase caution toward restaurant names heading into earnings season next month.
Intel soars as NVIDIA invests $5 bln in game-changing AI and PC chip partnership (INTC)
Intel (INTC) and NVIDIA (NVDA) announced a broad, multi-year collaboration to co-develop custom data center and PC products, with NVDA committing a $5 bln investment in INTC. The partnership marks a major strategic shift for both companies, with INTC's stock surging on the news, while NVDA shares saw more modest gains. The centerpiece of the deal is INTC’s agreement to manufacture NVIDIA-custom x86 CPUs, which NVDA will integrate into its AI infrastructure platforms. This gives NVDA more control over system-level design and performance tuning across AI workloads. Other key considerations of the development include the following:
- INTC to build x86 SoCs with integrated NVIDIA RTX GPU chiplets for next-gen AI-powered PCs.
- This follows the U.S. government’s 10% stake in INTC under CHIPS Act, strengthening INTC’s turnaround narrative.
- NVDA’s $5 bln investment secures advanced capacity at Intel Foundry, diversifying supply beyond Taiwan Semi Manufacturing (TSMC).
- While the strategic impact is high, the financial implications may take several quarters to materialize. Still, this collaboration elevates INTC’s standing in the AI and PC markets and may mark the beginning of a multi-quarter re-rating in INTC’s valuation.
- For INTC, this is the first step in reclaiming technological and financial relevance in a market that had largely counted it out.
The competitive implications are also significant:
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is squeezed on both fronts: AI servers (EPYC) and high-end gaming/client PCs (Ryzen), with NVDA encroaching directly.
- Qualcomm (QCOM) faces renewed pressure in Windows PCs, as Intel-NVIDIA platforms bolster x86’s lead in software and performance.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
INTC’s agreement with NVDA is easily its most consequential partnership in over a decade. The upside for INTC is twofold: a massive validation of its struggling Foundry business and immediate financial tailwinds from NVDA’s investment and chip orders. This deal also effectively de-risks a portion of INTC’s multi-billion-dollar capex plan, which had been under pressure amid delays and cost overruns. For NVDA, the benefits are more incremental. The company gains greater architectural control by vertically integrating x86 CPUs into its AI platforms, potentially narrowing its reliance on third-party vendors like AMD.
Lyft surges on Waymo robotaxi expansion to Nashville; deal narrows AV gap with Uber (LYFT)
Lyft (LYFT) shares are accelerating higher on news of a partnership with Alphabet's (GOOG) Waymo to launch fully autonomous ride-hailing in Nashville by 2026. The move helps close the competitive gap with Uber (UBER), which already operates Waymo robotaxis in Austin and Atlanta. Under the agreement, customers will initially hail Waymo autonomous vehicles via the Waymo app, with integration into LYFT’s platform expected later in 2026.
- LYFT’s Flexdrive unit will manage fleet operations for Waymo’s AVs in Nashville, providing maintenance, logistics, and support infrastructure.
- The partnership adds momentum to LYFT’s broader autonomous vehicle push. In July, LYFT acquired European ride-hailing platform FREENOW, gaining access to 180 cities and 6.3 mln users.
- LYFT recently announced a separate partnership with Baidu (BIDU) to deploy its Apollo Go robotaxis across key European cities using LYFT’s expanded network via FREENOW.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
Lyft is finally moving more aggressively into autonomous mobility, and this Waymo expansion is a critical step toward competitive parity with UBER. While UBER had an early lead through deeper Waymo integration, LYFT’s dual-pronged strategy -- with Waymo in the U.S. and BIDU in Europe -- gives it a global runway for AV scaling. The use of Flexdrive for fleet management adds vertical integration that could prove operationally and financially advantageous.
Still, questions remain. LYFT’s delayed platform integration (post-2026) and limited AV exposure to date mean execution risk is high. But for now, the market is rewarding LYFT’s bold moves in the robotaxi race -- especially as UBER trades lower on investor concern over potential share loss in Nashville.
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