QC continues outperforming sales expectations for Apple modems even as Wall Street remains asleep at the wheel. Let's review:
September 2021 Forecast: At QC's Investor Day, QC predicted that it would supply only 20% of the modems in Apple's smartphone launch in 2023 (i.e., iPhone 15 models). [Source: Appleinsider] Here are the actual results:
- QC supplied most of the modems in Apple's 2021 smartphone models (iPhone 13)...except the iPhone SE used an Intel modem
- QC supplied 100% of the modems in Apple's 2022 smartphone models (iPhone 14 and iPhone SE)
- QC supplied 100% of the modems in Apple's 2023 smartphone models (iPhone 15 and iPhone SE)
September 2023 Forecast: QC renewed its agreement with Apple to supply modems through 2026, and QC predicted that it would supply only 20% of the modems in Apple's 2026 smartphone launch (iPhone 18). [Source: QC's website] Here are the actual results so far:
- QC supplied 100% of the modems in Apple's 2024 initial smartphone models (i.e., iPhone 16 and iPhone SE). However, in February 2025, Apple replaced the iPhone SE with the iPhone 16e featuring Apple's first in-house C1 modem. Apple has not provided official sales figures for the iPhone SE, but one report indicates that the iPhone 16e accounted for 11% of US iPhone sales in the June 2025 quarter. In other words, the survey suggests that QC supplied 89% of Apple's US iPhone sales in the June 2025 quarter. [Source: Appleinsider]
- QC is supplying most of the modems in Apple's 2025 smartphone models (iPhone 17 series). Specifically, Apple is using QC's Snapdragon X80 modem in the iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max and its own C1X modem in the iPhone 17 Air. [Source: macrumors]
So...what are the early sales indications for the iPhone 17 Air?
- In an earnings call in May 2025, Akash Palkhiwala said that Qualcomm was forecasting a 70% share in the launch of the iPhone 17 series. [Source: phonearena]
- Ahead of the ?iPhone 17? launch, Apple allocated 25 percent of its ?iPhone 17? production to the standard model, 10 percent to the Air, and 65 percent to the Pro and Pro Max. [Source: macrumors] In other words, Apple expected 90% of the demand for its iPhone 17 series would use a QC Snapdragon X80 modem.
If this expectation is anywhere near accurate, and given that Apple's stock price increased by $7.62/share today because of reports of stronger-than-expected demand for iPhone 17 models, then shouldn't QC's stock price have risen somewhat in tandem today (i) because of QC's history of beating expectations of modem sales to Apple, (ii) because of the early reports of stronger-than-expected demand for the iPhone 17 models, and (iii) because QC is selling a greater percentage of modems than Akash forecasted for Apple's 2025 launch of the iPhone 17 models?
QC stockholders are frustrated...once again! |
