Certainty on law makes for a stable foundation and allows capitalism to thrive. Conversely, uncertainty throws sand in the gears of animal spirits. This proclamation is a sand pit.
As I read the proclamation, it has a one year period - which can be extended indefinitely. The $100,000 fee can be any amount (note: yesterday, the fee was essentially fixed by Congress; the fee was nominal). The fee is annual. Current visa holders must pay the fee.
What was certain yesterday, what a company could plan for yesterday, is gone.
Imagine you're a tech company and cannot find talent in the US. (This eliminates the corporate abusers who were bringing in entry level fungible talent masquerading as unique [which is what depressed wages].)
Usually, you are looking to hire overseas talent for multiple years. You budget - based upon law - for that person. Then this proclamation hits. Now what? The future could plausibly unroll like this: Year 1; $100,000 fee. Year 2, fee raised to $200,000. Year 3 $400,000, etc. (Yesterday, it could not unroll like that because Congress set the fees.)
What a job killer the proclamation will be. Sure, the newly minted STEM graduates will not face depressed wages caused by the abusers; but, for the truly unique talent the H-1b is supposed to cover, the companies will simply relocate their labs/offices/operations abroad. So, that new STEM grad will have fewer options, the company offshores its best talent, its most advanced projects, its highest paid workers. Germany, France, England are salivating; they'll offer incentives to make it easy for companies to relocate. |
