Explaining The Logic Behind The US’ Reported Draft National Defense Strategy
Andrew Korybko
Sep 19, 2025
Policymakers are preparing for the worst-case scenario from their perspective, the US’ expulsion from the Eastern Hemisphere, hence their new goal of urgently achieving strategic autarky in the Americas.
Politico cited unnamed US sources to report in early September that the draft National Defense Strategy will radically break from its predecessors, including Trump 1.0’s own from 2018, by prioritizing the Western Hemisphere over containing China and Russia. If this grand strategic pivot makes it into the final version, which is likely since only comparatively minor points are usually changed during this process, then it would be accounted for by recent events in Eurasia prompting a sea change in US calculations.
To be sure, the US is still expected to pursue the containment of China and Russia, which can collectively be referred to as the Sino-Russo Entente. It’ll just be done more through proxy, AUKUS+ vis-à-vis China and NATO vis-à-vis Russia, than through direct measures like before. The predicted injection of Western influence into the geostrategic Central Asian region between them via NATO member Turkiye through the new TRIPP Corridor will complement the aforesaid measures to stir trouble for them on the cheap.
The US’ evolving modus operandi is to “ Lead From Behind” by empowering regional partners through ISR aid, logistics support, and arms deals in order to advance shared geostrategic interests without risking another imbroglio for itself. The preexisting multipolar processes from before the special operation have accelerated in the 3,5 years since and consequently reached the point where a return to unipolarity is impossible even though complex multipolarity has yet to emerge and might still take decades to do so.
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