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Technology Stocks : INDONESIA'S PT TELECOM(TLK)
TLK 20.68+1.0%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: tom who wrote (414)2/25/1998 12:35:00 PM
From: Solon1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 947
 
Tom, you're right about the poverty: any way you slice it, you're still looking at a nation of poor people here. It may be productive to look at Indonesia as becoming more insular and more focussed on its internal problems than on export earnings.

Right now, the government is paranoid about hoarding and speculating. Whilst it is possible that rice & palm oil will be smuggled overseas, I suspect that the downside for such traders (ranging from public censure to death by riot) are pretty great in comparison to the prospective returns. The costs of this sort of smuggling are also quite high, due to the "compliance costs" associated with Indonesian Customs & Excise.

The currency board thing appears to have been a political manouvre to show the Indonesian people that Suharto has his own economic reform agenda beyond that of the IMF, and so the notion was more symbolic than practical. As you correctly point out, the government is now distancing itself from the idea quite rapidly.

At the end of the day, the only way the economy will be prevented from implosion is if the old man implements the IMF's reform agenda. He will probably be forced to, in the end, simply in order to get some international support with which to stave off his internal critics.

Incidentally, if you are interested in exchanging USD for Rupiah (or vice versa), I would be pleased to put you in touch with someone who could do the trades at the day's bank mid-rate plus a small commission. Drop me a private message if this appeals.
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