Latest from Agoracom: poetmmc
Re: Ciena buys start-up Nubis CommunicationsIn Response To Re: Ciena buys start-up Nubis Communications by babaoriley
Posted On: Sep 22, 2025 10:33PM
Growjo.com estimated Nubis annual revenue as $12.9M. I don't know how reliable that site is, and my quick research has resulted in earnings estimates for Nubis as low as $3.9 and as high as $12.9M.
If we take the $12.9, then the $270M acquisition amount is a 21X trailing 12 month value.
This is rough math, and $12.9M could be way off, but if the revenue estimate is high then the 21X multiple is conservative. So, let's use 21X.
So, if POET is similarly valued, they would need to generate $48M in revenue to be valued at $1B.
I know, I know.. Most of us on the forum are anticipating a much higher market cap than $1B, but that would be over double the current market cap, so let's start there.
How could POET generate a run rate revenue value of $48M by mid-2026? (By "run-rate", I mean at least $4M a month by the end of June.)
This seems more than plausible to me. It seems likely. Consider that Adtran, Foxconn, Luxshare, Lessengers, and Mentech already have validated technology integrated into their solutions that they are positioning with customers today. At the end of 2025, i believe it is highly likely that they will close initial deals for these solutions, leading to larger orders in Q1 and Q2 of '26. And, between all 5 of these POET customers (partners), it seems reasonable to me that POET will be receiving at least $4M/month by that time. (Notice, I didnt even mention Celestial. That will be big, but I don't know when revenue will come from this significant partnership so I left them out of the 1H '26 revenue assumptoins)
So, if you still want to play the game after reading all my assumptions, we can then debate whether a $1B valuation at the end of June '26 is a failure or a success. In my opinion, doubling the value of my investment in the next 9 months is better than losing money. And, it's better than a lot of other investments.
But that's not what we're playing for. We're here because we believe POET will become much more valuable than this mid '26 "made-up" valuation. Given all the research and communications we have engaged in over the past few years, my opinion is that mid '26 will be just the beginning of explosive growth for the company. POET will be fulfilling INITIAL orders and establishing themselves as a supplier of technology across a broad set of uses cases and industries. I believe this will result in significantly higher revenue and market cap for POET by the end of next year.
So, the $270M valuation on $12.9M in estimated revenue for Nubis does not alarm me. |
