| | | Market Snapshot
| Dow | 46292.57 | -88.76 | (-0.19%) | | Nasdaq | 22573.48 |
| (%) | | SP 500 | 6656.91 | -36.83 | (-0.55%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1262 | Dec 1458 | Vol 1.29 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 1747 | Dec 2841 | Vol 9.90 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Energy, Real Estate, Health Care, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Real Estate |
| | Weak: Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Financials |
Moving the Market
Mega-cap tech names cede some of yesterday's advance while the broader market shows strength
Muted response from the market to Fed Chair Powell's comments today
| Mega-cap weakness drags market from record highs amid valuation concerns
23-Sep-25 16:35 ET
Dow -88.76 at 46292.57, S&P -36.83 at 6656.91
[BRIEFING.COM] Despite some earlier resilience in the broader market, the S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.0%), and DJIA (-0.2%) closed with losses today as mega-cap names faced mounting pressure throughout the session.
It is worth noting that the S&P 500 and DJIA did notch new record intraday levels this morning before retreating, with the S&P 500 coming within 0.5 points of the 6,700 mark.
The market's largest names faced pressure on the heels of yesterday's record-setting rally that was bolstered by NVIDIA's (NVDA 178.43, -5.18, -2.82%) announcement of up to a $100 billion investment in OpenAI as part of a strategy to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems.
That same announcement faced scrutiny today, with CNBC reporting that several senior investors have raised concerns to clients that the deal resembles a vendor financing arrangement. A separate CNBC report raised doubts around the feasibility of meeting the energy demands for 10 gigawatts, citing political and economic constraints.
Oracle (ORCL 314.05, -14.10, -4.30%) also gave back the majority of yesterday's advance, contributing to the information technology sector's 1.1% loss.
The consumer discretionary sector (-1.4%) was the worst-performing S&P 500 sector, facing pressure in its mega-cap components, Amazon (AMZN 220.71, -6.92, -3.04%) and Tesla (TSLA 425.85, -8.36, -1.93%).
The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF retreated 1.1% today, and the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+0.1%) outperformed the market-weighted S&P 500 (-0.6%).
Smaller cap indices such as the Russell 2000 (-0.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.1%) fared better than their larger counterparts, though they ceded their early gains as the broader market retreated this afternoon.
Gains were modest for the most part across the five advancing S&P 500 sectors, too modest to offset the damage done by the mega-cap's retreat.
Only the energy sector (+1.7%) closed with a gain wider than 1.0%, supported by crude oil futures settling today's session $1.19 higher (+1.9%) at $63.44 per barrel.
The market heard from several FOMC members today, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell (FOMC voting member). While Mr. Powell's speech largely echoed his sentiments from last week's FOMC meeting, the market paid particular focus to his acknowledgment that "by many measures, for example, equity prices are fairly highly valued."
Today's pullback after fresh record highs could reflect market participants giving credence to valuation concerns amid a historic run, particularly in the mega-cap space, though investors have repeatedly shown a willingness to buy dips throughout this rally.
U.S. Treasuries finished with modest gains across the curve that pushed yields slightly lower from Monday's settlement, as today's 2-year note auction was met with okay (not great) demand. The 2-year note yield settled down one basis point to 3.59%, and the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.12%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +16.9% YTD
- S&P 500: +13.2% YTD
- Russell 2000: +10.2% YTD
- DJIA: +8.8% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +5.1% YTD
Reviewing today's data:- Q2 Current Account Balance -$251.3 bln (Briefing.com consensus -$302.1 bln); Prior was revised to -$439.8 bln from -$450.2 bln
- September S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI - Prelim 52.0; Prior 53.0
- September S&P Global U.S. Services PMI - Prelim 53.9; Prior 54.5
Micron's highly anticipated earnings report after the close
23-Sep-25 15:30 ET
Dow -113.47 at 46267.86, Nasdaq -235.01 at 22553.97, S&P -43.91 at 6649.83
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.0%), and DJIA (-0.2%) hold losses as equities have faced increasing pressure throughout the session.
The market looks ahead to Micron's (MU 166.85, +2.23, +1.35%) earnings report after the close, amid a tough day for chipmakers and AI-centric plays. The stock is up over 40% in September alone and over 90% year-to-date, driven by booming AI memory demand and strong HBM3e momentum.
With expectations elevated and the HBM narrative largely priced in, guidance will be a key factor in the stock's price action. Micron likely needs to issue a strong 1Q26 outlook to avoid a "sell the news" reaction, especially given the stock's parabolic move in recent weeks.
Major averages at session lows near the close
23-Sep-25 15:10 ET
Dow -111.74 at 46269.59, Nasdaq -244.43 at 22544.55, S&P -44.93 at 6648.81
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.0%), and DJIA (-0.3%) are charting new session lows as the market enters the final half hour of trading.
Mega-cap names continue to see considerable profit-taking this afternoon, widening losses in the consumer discretionary (-1.4%), information technology (-1.3%), and communication services (-0.7%) sectors.
NVIDIA's (NVDA 178.09, -5.52, -3.01%) announcement yesterday to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI as part of a strategy to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems lifted the major averages to record high levels.
CNBC reported today that some senior investors remain skeptical of the partnership, citing doubts about the feasibility of meeting the 10-gigawatt energy requirement and concerns that the agreement resembles a vendor-financing arrangement.
S&P 500 slips as VST downgrade and crypto weakness hit laggards; Paramount Skydance jumps
23-Sep-25 14:25 ET
Dow -151.18 at 46230.15, Nasdaq -238.00 at 22550.98, S&P -45.39 at 6648.35
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.68%) is in second place on Tuesday afternoon, down 45 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Generac (GNRC 171.33, -14.53, -7.82%), Vistra Corp. (VST 205.99, -11.93, -5.47%), and Coinbase Global (COIN 320.00, -11.95, -3.60%) pepper the bottom of the standings. VST caught a downgrade to Hold at Jefferies this morning following the stock's 160% run-up in the past year, while softness in the crypto market pressures COIN.
Meanwhile, Paramount Skydance (PSKY 20.09, +1.48, +7.95%) is today's top performer despite a dearth of corporate news.
Gold jumps $40 as Fed cut bets, China reserve moves, and geopolitical risks drive safe-haven demand
23-Sep-25 14:00 ET
Dow -112.05 at 46269.28, Nasdaq -203.85 at 22585.13, S&P -37.35 at 6656.39
[BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours to go on Tuesday afternoon the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.89%) is down about 203 points.
Gold futures settled $40.60 higher (+1.1%) at $3,815.70/oz, as investors bet on further Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and sustained central bank demand, particularly following reports of China seeking a larger role in custodizing sovereign reserves. Geopolitical tensions and global growth worries also boosted safe-haven flows into the metal.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.1% to $97.24.
Firefly Aerospace plummets below IPO price after large Q2 loss, disappointing revenue guidance (FLY)
Firefly Aerospace (FLY) delivered a mixed Q2 report in its first earnings release since its successful August 7 IPO, with a strong backlog and NASA momentum overshadowed by a much wider-than-expected loss and underwhelming FY25 revenue guidance.
- The company posted a much larger-than-anticipated loss of $(5.78) per share, triggering a steep post-earnings sell-off that pushed shares below the $45 IPO price.
- FY25 revenue guidance of $133-$145 mln was merely in line with expectations and failed to justify the stock’s rich valuation following yesterday’s run-up.
- Adjusted EBITDA came in at $(47.9) mln, essentially flat yr/yr, reflecting continued investment in infrastructure, R&D, and mission readiness.
- Key drivers of unprofitability include higher launch vehicle development costs, increased headcount, and lunar operations scaling.
- FLY did announce a $10 mln contract addendum under NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services program for Blue Ghost Mission 1. This contract extension, related to science and operational data collection beyond the original scope, helped spark a pre-earnings rally.
- Backlog grew to approximately $1.3 bln as of Q2-end, driven by new awards and momentum behind the Blue Ghost missions, with continued traction from partnerships with NASA, Northrop Grumman (NOC), and Lockheed Martin (LMT).
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
FLY is still in the early innings of commercialization and scaling, which explains its steep losses -- but investors were clearly caught off guard by the magnitude of the miss. While the CLPS award extension and a $1.3 bln backlog underscore strong long-term potential, especially with marquee partners like NASA and LMT, today’s sharp sell-off reflects the tension between near-term financials and the long-term growth narrative. With the FY25 outlook failing to surprise to the upside and profitability still likely years away, FLY will need to consistently execute on future missions to maintain investor confidence. For now, the stock’s valuation premium (P/S of about 46x) appears difficult to defend.
Crane NXT Climbs on Fed's 2026 Currency Print Order; US Banknote Demand Up Sharply (CXT)
Crane NXT (CXT) is trading sharply higher this morning after announcing it expects its US currency business to grow in the high single digits in 2026 based on the Federal Reserve Board's recently published 2026 print order. Its Security and Authentication Technologies (SAT) segment provides advanced security solutions based on proprietary technology for securing physical products, including banknotes, consumer goods, and industrial products, so the new print order plays directly into its strengths.
- The 2026 print order projects demand of 3.8-5.1 bln banknotes, with the volume of higher denomination notes ($10, $20, $50, $100) increasing ~90% at the midpoint vs. 2025, partially offset by a decline in lower denominations.
- Along with stronger volume, Crane NXT will continue supporting the U.S. currency redesign program, beginning with the new $10 bill launch next year.
- In its Q2 report (Aug 7), SAT revenue, which was roughly 48% of total revenue, increased 32% yr/yr (9% core), fueled mainly by international strength. Importantly, its U.S. currency business resumed production after major tech upgrades, setting the stage for the new series rollout in 2026.
- Management reiterated confidence in both U.S. and international growth drivers, pointing to a strong 2026 pipeline. Additional details on its 2026 outlook are expected in its Q3 earnings call.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
The Fed's print order shows a sharp acceleration in demand for higher-value notes, which carry more sophisticated security features, where Crane NXT excels. With SAT already nearly half of total revenue and backed by record backlogs, the company looks well positioned to cash in on structural demand tailwinds in both U.S. and international markets. Strong execution on recent mergers is also contributing to growth momentum.
Radian Group: Should Benefit from Lower Rates, Millennial Homebuyers, Share Buybacks (RDN)
With a quiet news cycle today, Radian Group caught our attention after being added to Briefing.com's YIELD Leaders rankings last Friday—earning a Top 5 spot. The company stands out for aggressively returning capital to shareholders, offering an 11.7% buyback yield and a 2.7% dividend yield.
Radian is one of the largest and oldest private mortgage insurers (PMI) in the US, with mortgage insurance premiums driving ~90% of its income.
- In Q2, Radian's primary mortgage insurance segment hit an all-time high of $277 bln in insurance in force.
- The mortgage insurance portfolio showed strong credit performance, with cures exceeding new defaults.
- The company sees a positive outlook for the PMI business, despite acknowledging affordability issues tied to limited housing supply and elevated home prices.
Recent declines in US mortgage rates, along with a 25 bps Fed rate cut last week and potential further cuts later this year, could support housing activity—a key tailwind for Radian, which is tightly correlated with housing market trends.
Millennials entering their prime homebuying years could sustain strong first-time buyer demand, especially given their higher likelihood of needing PMI due to lower down payments. The reinstatement of the PMI tax deduction starting in tax year 2026 via the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is another potential, if modest, catalyst.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
Radian is an interesting YIELD play with long-term housing tailwinds. We like 1) the pent-up homebuyer demand, especially among millennials, 2) management's aggressive share buybacks, signaling confidence in the stock's value, and 3) the potential for lower rates to reinvigorate the housing market—possibly aligning with the spring 2026 selling season.
AutoZone misses EPS expectations again, but sales remain strong, especially international (AZO)
AutoZone (AZO) delivered a mixed fiscal 4Q25 report, marked by a fifth consecutive EPS miss despite solid topline performance. The company’s ongoing expansion and solid same store sales growth highlight underlying business strength, though the earnings shortfall -- driven in part by a large inventory-related charge -- tempers the near-term outlook.
- Q4 EPS missed expectations, weighed down by a significant $80 mln LIFO (Last-In, First-Out) charge. This non-cash accounting charge was tied to rising inventory costs, primarily due to inflationary pressure on auto parts, exacerbated by tariffs on imported goods.
- Company-wide same store sales rose 5.1% in constant currency, reflecting healthy demand trends across both the domestic and international segments.
- Domestic SSS increased 4.8%, benefiting from higher pricing driven by tariff-related cost pass-throughs and sustained strength in commercial sales.
- The company continues to see solid demand for hard parts, including batteries, brakes, and engine components, suggesting resilience in vehicle maintenance activity amid an aging car fleet.
- International SSS climbed 7.2% in constant currency, led by strength in the DIY segment.
- Expansion in Mexico and Brazil was notable, where rising brand awareness and favorable macro trends are helping AZO gain traction. AZO opened 141 net new stores globally during Q4, including 109 in the U.S., 18 in Mexico, and 14 in Brazil.
- International expansion remains a key pillar of the company’s long-term strategy, with management reiterating plans to accelerate store openings in Latin America and begin testing new markets in the Caribbean and Central America in FY26.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
AZO’s Q4 results tell a two-sided story. On the one hand, strong same store sales, especially internationally, and continued momentum in commercial sales indicate a business that’s executing well operationally. On the other, another EPS miss -- this time due in part to an $80 mln LIFO charge -- raises questions about margin predictability and inventory cost management. The LIFO charge is more of a near-term accounting headwind than a structural issue, but persistent EPS underperformance could weigh on investor sentiment. That said, the underlying demand for AZO’s core products remains strong, and the company’s aggressive international expansion could be a meaningful growth lever over time.
Pfizer buys Metsera to compete with Lilly, Novo in obesity space; Deal could hit $70/share (PFE)
Pfizer (PFE) announced it will acquire clinical-stage biotech Metsera (MTSR) in a cash-and-contingent value rights deal worth up to $70 per share, as it seeks a foothold in the fast-growing obesity drug market. The deal includes $47.50 per share in cash -- a 43% premium to MTSR’s closing price last Friday -- plus up to $22.50 in milestone payments tied to the development and commercial success of MTSR’s lead candidate, MET-097i.
- PFE shares are climbing higher on the news, with investors hopeful the acquisition could provide the next long-term growth catalyst, especially as COVID-19 product sales have sharply declined in recent quarters.
- The additional $22.50 per share will be paid out if MET-097i receives FDA approval by the end of 2027 and reaches $2.5 bln in cumulative U.S. sales within five years of launch.
- MTSR’s MET-097i, a GLP-1 receptor agonist, has shown comparable efficacy and improved tolerability relative to Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Zepbound, which achieved remarkable 172% sales growth in 2Q25, and Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Wegovy in early-stage trials. This includes average weight loss of over 15% at 24 weeks with fewer gastrointestinal side effects.
- Shares of NVO are trading moderately lower, while LLY is up modestly.
- MTSR expects to begin Phase 3 trials in early 2026, with potential FDA approval projected for late 2028 to early 2029, assuming no regulatory delays.
- While MTSR currently has no commercial revenue, analysts estimate peak annual sales of $6–8 bln for MET-097i if approved, depending on market uptake and payer coverage.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
PFE’s acquisition of MTSR is a bold but calculated move to capture a share of the booming obesity treatment market. While MTSR is still a pre-revenue biotech, its lead drug, MET-097i, has demonstrated real promise. What makes this deal especially smart is the structure -- PFE limits upfront risk with a $47.50 base offer and ties the rest to performance. The obesity drug market is projected to exceed $100 bln by the early 2030s, and PFE has been under pressure to find new growth drivers as COVID-era windfalls fade. Despite being years away from commercialization, MET-097i offers a path to re-accelerate top-line growth. That’s why both stocks are up today.
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